中國遏制大宗商品投機

China has moved to clamp down on excessive speculation in commodities after weeks of frenzied trading boosted prices and ignited fears of another bubble in its domestic markets.

中國已採取措施遏制大宗商品市場的過度投機。連續數週來的瘋狂交易推高了大宗商品價格，引燃了人們對於中國市場又將滋生一個泡沫的擔心。

Activity on China’s largest commodity exchanges has surged in recent days with turnover in a key steel contract exceeding the combined volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on one day last week.

中國幾家最大的大宗商品交易所近來成交額飆升。上週某日，一種鋼材期貨主力合約的成交額超過上海和深圳證券交易所成交額之和。

Investors around the world have zeroed in on the latest trading binge as the prices of many commodities have risen sharply, with iron ore gaining almost a third in just two weeks. Cash has started to flow into raw materials in part because Chinese officials imposed curbs on equities trading last year.

世界各地的投資者已經開始注意這股最新的交易熱潮。許多大宗商品的價格近來大幅上升，鐵礦石價格在短短兩週上漲近三分之一。資金開始流入原材料的部分原因是中國去年出臺了針對股票交易的限制措施。

“China’s latest speculative spike has stunned global markets,” said Tom Price., a Morgan Stanley analyst.

“中國最新的投機熱潮震驚全球市場，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師湯姆•普賴斯(Tom Price)表示。

Shanghai steel futures have risen more than 50 per cent this year and more than a fifth this month. Iron ore traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit its highest level since September 2014 last week.

上海鋼材期貨價格今年以來上漲逾50%，本月漲幅就超過五分之一。在大連商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)交易的鐵礦石上週觸及自2014年9月以來最高的價位。

The surge led China’s largest commodity trading venues — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange — to curb activity by lifting transaction costs, margins and daily trading limits on some contracts.

這股飆漲行情已促使中國最大的幾家大宗商品交易場所——上海期貨交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)、大連商品交易所和鄭州商品交易所(Zhengzhou Commodities Exchange)——上調交易成本、保證金以及針對某些合約的每日交易限制，以求遏制交易活動。

Pricing power for the world’s most important raw materials has shifted east during a decade of economic growth that has transformed China into the largest importer of almost every commodity. Now almost half of the world’s most active commodity derivatives are traded on Chinese exchanges

近10年來的經濟增長使中國成爲幾乎所有大宗商品的最大進口國，全球各種重要原材料的定價權也隨之東移。如今，世界上交易最活躍的大宗商品衍生品有近一半在中國的交易所交易。

Analysts said the trigger for increased speculative interest in commodities was a credit surge engineered by Chinese policymakers this year to prop up the economy and its currency.

分析師們表示，對大宗商品的投機興趣提高，導火索是中國政策制定者今年爲了支撐經濟和人民幣匯率而設計的一場信貸激增。

This led to a pick-up in construction activity and stoked investor appetite for ways to bet on the Chinese economy. Beijing imposed draconian rules on equities last year as fears of a slowing economy triggered a sell-off.

信貸激增導致建築活動回升，並吊起了投資者的胃口，鼓勵他們想方設法對中國經濟押注。去年對經濟放緩的擔憂引發股市拋售潮之後，北京方面針對股票交易出臺了嚴厲規則。

Chinese speculators seem “to have decided the big credit figures that came out two weeks ago were a green light to get levered up”, Michael Coleman, co-founder of RCMA Asset Management in Singapore,

新加坡RCMA Asset Management的聯合創始人邁克爾•科爾曼(Michael Coleman)表示，中國投機者似乎“已認定，兩週前發佈的巨大信貸數據是加槓桿的綠燈”。

“They don’t want to buy the stock market because all of the curbs that are in place and seem to have taken the view that commodities are really cheap.”

“由於現行的各種限制措施，他們不想在股市買入股票，而似乎認爲大宗商品真的很便宜。”

Some traders fear higher trading costs could lead to a rapid unwinding of speculative positions. Shanghai steel prices slipped 0.3 per cent yesterday, while iron ore futures also closed lower.

一些交易商擔心，較高的交易成本可能導致投機頭寸迅速平倉。上海鋼材價格昨日下跌0.3%，而鐵礦石期貨亦收低。