鐵礦石價格反彈至15個月高點

Steelmaking ingredient iron ore surged further on Thursday, rising to its highest level in 15 months and securing its position as the best performing major commodity of 2016.

週四，鍊鋼原料鐵礦石的價格繼續飆升，漲至15個月高位，坐穩了2016年表現最佳的主要大宗商品的位子。

Caught between slowing demand from China and relentless supply growth, iron ore was expected to endure another tough year. Instead, it has risen 60 per cent, outpacing gold and oil, due to rising Chinese steel prices and supply cuts.

在中國需求放緩及供應持續增長的夾擊下，人們原本預計鐵礦石會經歷又一個艱難的年份，但事實上它的價格卻上漲了60%，超過了黃金和石油的漲幅，背後的原因是中國鋼材價格上漲和減產。

If sustained, the rebound in prices could add billions of dollars to the bottom line of the world’s largest mining companies. Iron ore is key source of profits for companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale.

如果這股趨勢保持下去，鐵礦石價格反彈可能會爲全球大型礦企帶來數十億美元額外的利潤。對必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和巴西淡水河谷(Vale)等公司來說，鐵礦石是關鍵的利潤來源。

On Thursday, benchmark Australian ore for delivery to China rose $4.40, or 6.8 per cent, to $68.70 a tonne, according to a price assessment by the Steel Index.

鋼鐵指數公司(The Steel Index)的價格評估顯示，對華即時交割的基準澳大利亞鐵礦石週四上漲4.40美元，至每噸68.70美元，漲幅達到6.8%。

The move came as Chinese steel prices enjoyed another big day of gains, rising nearly 9 per cent to their highest level since September 2014.

鐵礦石價格上漲的同時，中國鋼材價格也經歷了又一日的大漲——漲幅近9%——觸及2014年9月以來最高的價位。

Increased availability of credit, restocking ahead of the summer construction period and tighter supplies following a string of closures last year are said to be behind the increase in steel Chinese prices.

據悉，中國鋼材價格上漲背後的原因包括：信貸供應量增加，建築商在夏季施工旺季前補充庫存，以及去年關閉一批鋼廠後鋼材供應趨緊。

At the same time, BHP, Rio and Vale have all trimmed their production guidance, helping to tighten a market that has been struggling with a supply glut.

與此同時，必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷全都下調了產量指引，這有助於讓近來一直疲於應付供應過剩的市場“瘦身”。

However, most analysts and even some producers believe the rally has gone too far, too fast and are expecting prices to pull back.

但多數分析師乃至部分生產商都認爲此次反彈幅度太大、速度太快，他們預計價格將會回落。

Speaking to reporters on Thursday the head of BHP Billiton in Australia said he did not expect the rise in prices to hold for more than a few months because more supply is set to hit the market.

必和必拓澳大利亞礦產業務負責人邁克•亨利(Mike Henry)週四對記者們說，他預計鐵礦石價格的漲勢維持不了幾個月，因爲更多的供應將給市場造成衝擊。

“As you see more low-cost volume come to market, here in Australia as well as elsewhere, you would expect that prices would not be sustained at these high levels,” said Mike Henry, BHP’s head of operations for Australian minerals.

他表示：“當你看到更多的低成本鐵礦石進入市場——無論是在澳大利亞還是在別的地方——你就會預見到鐵礦石價格無法維持在這麼高的水平上。”

Equally the 50 per cent rise in Chinese steel prices — steel reinforcement bars that are widely used in construction are currently trading at $430 a tonne — is also seen as unsustainable.

同樣，中國鋼材價格的漲勢（已上漲了50%）也被認爲是無法持續的。建築施工中廣泛使用的螺紋鋼的交易價格目前爲每噸430美元。

In its monthly report, the China Iron Ore and Steel Association said the rally could not last because of rising production, which is estimated to have hit 70m tonnes in March, or 834m tonnes on an annualised basis.

中國鋼鐵工業協會(China Iron and Steel Association)在其月度報告中表示，由於產量增長，鋼材價格的反彈勢頭無法持續。3月份中國鋼材產量估計已達7000萬噸，相當於年產量8.34億噸。