世界食品價格上漲可能暗藏政治風險

U.S. food prices are climbing , but higher costs for everything from wheat to soybeans to coffee could have an even greater impact on consumers in emerging markets.

美國的食品價格日益攀升，但是包括小麥、大豆和咖啡在內的各種食品成本的上漲可能給新興市場消費者帶來更大的影響。

Consumers in developing countries spend a greater amount of their household income on food, compared with richer nations.

與發達國家相比，發展中國家消費者的食品支出佔其家庭收入的比例更大。

The trend has economists and political analysts on alert, since higher food prices were a catalyst for protests and riots during price spikes in 2008 and 2011.

目前的趨勢令經濟學家和政治分析人士保持警惕，因爲在2008年和2011年食品價格飆升期間，這種趨勢曾成爲抗議活動和動亂的催化劑。

'If you look at the Arab Spring, this was anteceded by a significant rise in food prices,' said Christopher Garman, head of emerging markets at Eurasia Group. 'When you have some countries that are more vulnerable from rising food prices these are also where you have segments of society that are more disenfranchised.'

歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)新興市場部門主管加曼(Christopher Garman)說，“阿拉伯之春”爆發之前，食品價格曾明顯上漲；那些更容易受到食品價格上漲影響的國家，也是社會一些階層更受壓迫的地方。

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's monthly food-price index in February rose 5.2 points from January, the sharpest rise since mid-2012.

據聯合國糧食及農業組織(The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization)公佈的數據顯示，2月份食品價格指數較1月份上升5.2個點，爲2012年中期以來最快增速。

Drought in California, Brazil and Southeast Asia has been fueling the price rise, crimping output of beef, palm oil, a host of fruits and vegetables, and other goods.

加州、巴西和東南亞地區的乾旱天氣一直在推動食品價格上漲，抑制了牛肉、棕櫚油、大量水果和蔬菜等食品的產出。

'In [the U.S.] it's not such a big deal but when you go to poor countries, in Africa or South Asia, you have people that spend half or three quarters of their income on food,' said John Baffes, a senior economist at the World Bank.

世界銀行(World Bank)高級經濟學家John Baffes說，這在美國不算什麼大問題，但是，在非洲或南亞的貧窮國家，人們的食品開支要佔到其收入的一半，或者四分之三。

Mr. Baffes said another two months of similar price increases could become worrying.

Baffes還說，如果這種物價漲勢再持續兩個月，可能會引發擔憂。

This is particularly touchy year for a rise in food prices since many countries, including Latin America's largest economy Brazil, as well as Colombia, are holding presidential elections.

今年食品價格的上漲正值一個非常敏感的時期，因爲包括拉丁美洲最大經濟體巴西和哥倫比亞在內的許多國家將舉行總統大選。

The government of President Dilma Rousseff has faced massive protests on issues from bus fares to resentment over the country's spend on the World Cup soccer tournament instead of on health care, education and other social services.

巴西總統羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)領導的政府已面臨大規模的抗議活動，抗議針對的問題包括公交票價，以及不滿該國把錢都花在承辦世界盃(World Cup)而不是醫療保健、教育等社會服務上。

The drought is threatening to drive up electricity costs for this heavily hydropower-reliant nation and has already caused blackouts.

在這個高度依賴水利發電的國家，乾旱可能會推高其電力成本。這種情況已經引發斷電。

Its currency has been trading near seven-month lows, which would make essential U.S.-dollar denominated imports like gasoline more expensive.

該國貨幣一直位於7個月低點附近，這將導致以美元計價的進口必需品（比如汽油）更加昂貴。

'My personal opinion is we are going to have a very difficult year in Brazil,' Arnaldo Luiz Corrêa, the director of São Paulo, Brazil-based Archer Consulting.

巴西商品風險管理機構Archer Consulting的聖保羅主管Arnaldo Luiz Correa說，他個人認爲，巴西將迎來非常艱難的一年。

Additionally, a weaker appetite for raw materials from China, the world's biggest importer of Brazilian commodities from soybeans to iron ore, is expected to weigh on Brazil's trade balance.

另外，作爲巴西的鐵礦石和大豆等大宗商品的最大進口國，中國對原材料需求的走軟預計將影響巴西的貿易平衡。

'The overarching concept here in EM is that policymakers are dealing with a lot of headwinds,' said Eurasia's Mr. Garman said. 'They're dealing with economies that are slowing down both for internal and external reasons.'

加曼說，目前新興市場的情況是，決策者們正在應對諸多挑戰；他們正在應對經濟增長因內外原因放緩的問題。