新俄羅斯的概念體 將成普京包袱

Tactical victories often end in strategic defeats. That is what Vladimir Putin is in for. The Russian president’s calculations appeared correct at first: the west swallowed the annexation of Crimea, and the Ukrainians did not resist for fear of all-out war. That put Russia on the path of military-patriotic mobilisation, enabling Mr Putin to claim absolute power without resorting to mass repressions. Yet by turning Russia into a war state, Mr Putin has unleashed the process he cannot stop and made himself hostage to suicidal statecraft.

戰術上的勝利往往會以戰略上的失敗告終。這就是俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)將迎來的命運。普京打的算盤起初看起來是正確的：西方無奈接受克里米亞被吞併的事實，烏克蘭由於害怕爆發全面戰爭而不敢反抗。這讓俄羅斯走上了軍事愛國主義的道路，從而使得普京能夠不用依靠大規模肅反運動就能獲得絕對權力。然而，通過將俄羅斯轉變爲一個戰爭國家，普京啓動了一個他自己都無法停止的過程，自殺性的治國方略將讓他身不由己。

He cannot now exit the war paradigm without risking a loss of power. For now he makes deals and wears a peacemaker’s hat, but he will inevitably return to the besieged fortress. He can rule only by subjugating the nation in a way that only war can justify. Russians will remember their economic problems soon enough.

普京現在退出戰爭模式很可能導致自己喪失權力。就目前而言，他締結協議，擺出調停人的姿態，但他將不可避免地重新陷入四面楚歌的狀態。他只有發動戰爭才能合法地統治國家。俄羅斯人很快就會想起他們的經濟問題。

Mr Putin has dismantled the post-cold war settlement that allowed him to engage economically with the west in the interests of the Russian petrostate, while keeping Russian society closed to western influence. His aggression has ensured Russia’s Ukrainian neighbour will forever look west.

普京拋棄了冷戰後達成的允許俄羅斯與西方展開經濟往來的安排。這種安排符合俄羅斯石油國家的利益，而且還讓該國社會不受西方的影響。他的侵略行徑讓其烏克蘭鄰居永遠地將目光投向西方。

The peace plan Mr Putin announced in September, which was instrumental in securing a ceasefire, is an attempt to formalise the new status quo. The alternative, the Kremlin makes clear, is continued bloodshed. It will not relinquish the occupied territories, and its offer of a deal is backed by dark threats from a country that still possesses one of the world’s biggest nuclear arsenals.

普京在今年9月宣佈的和平計劃有助於促成停火，這是企圖將新現狀正式確定下來。克里姆林宮明確表示，不同意該計劃就會導致流血衝突持續。俄羅斯將不會交出已經佔領的領土，它提出協議的背後暗含着威脅——俄羅斯仍擁有全球最大的核武庫之一 。

The west dare not call the Russian incursion an act of aggression. They talk euphemistically of a “political solution” to the Ukrainian crisis, which means that the Kremlin’s interests should be taken into account. The Nato summit held in Wales this month demonstrated that the alliance is not prepared to do much more than condemn Russia.

西方不敢將俄羅斯的入侵稱爲一種侵略行爲。他們委婉地談論烏克蘭危機的“政治解決方案”，這意味着克里姆林宮的利益應該得到考慮。本月在威爾士舉行的北約(Nato)峯會表明，北約除了譴責俄羅斯以外不準備做別的。

The promises of lethal aid for Ukraine that have apparently been made by some Nato countries will not shift the military balance – though both sides have an interest in pretending otherwise. Western sanctions will not force Mr Putin to backtrack. The west has proved that it is neither ready to include Ukraine in its security umbrella, nor to live up to their commitments under international law as guarantors of Ukrainian territorial integrity. A New Russia (or “Novorossiya”) on the territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists is on its way to becoming a reality. The partition of Ukraine is silently being ratified by the rest of the world.

部分北約國家據說承諾向烏克蘭提供致命性武器援助，但這不會改變烏俄雙方的軍力對比，不過雙方都有意佯稱它會改變平衡。西方制裁將不會迫使普京改弦更張。西方已經證明，它既不準備將烏克蘭置於其保護傘之下，也不會按照國際法履行保障烏克蘭領土完整的承諾。位於由親俄分裂分子控制的領土上的“新俄羅斯”(Novorossiya)正逐漸成爲現實。分割烏克蘭正獲得世界其他地區的默認。

Does this mean that Mr Putin is winning? Just the reverse: he is again miscalculating. He thinks he can do what other Russian leaders have done before – subdue his subjects by putting Russia in a state of permanent confrontation with the outside world. But the propaganda that plays endlessly on Russian television channels will not mesmerise them for long. Russian society will only accept short and victorious war. It is not prepared for bloodshed.

這意味着普京贏了？答案正好相反：他再次誤判形勢。他認爲自己也可以做到其他俄羅斯領導人以前做過的事情——通過讓俄羅斯永久性與外部世界對抗來統治其臣民。但俄羅斯電視臺無休止播放的宣傳片不會長久地迷惑他們。俄羅斯社會只會接受短暫且能取得勝利的戰爭。它沒有對流血衝突做好準備。

Few are willing to die for Mr Putin’s regime. News that hundreds of Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine and their bodies secretly buried in Russia has already begun to undermining the patriotic mood.

很少有人願意爲普京的政權獻身。數百名俄羅斯士兵在烏克蘭喪生以及他們被祕密安葬在俄羅斯的消息已開始破壞愛國主義情緒。

Soon, declining living standards will also begin to chafe, and Russians will start asking why they are suddenly so much worse off. Already, 37 per cent of Russians believe that the interests of individuals should trump the interests of the state. Mr Putin is not the new Stalin. He cannot mobilise Russia for a Great Patriotic War.

生活水平不斷下降很快也會產生影響，俄羅斯人將開始質問，爲何他們的生活境況突然變得這麼差。已經有37%的俄羅斯人認爲，個人利益應該高於國家利益。普京不是斯大林第二。他不可能動員俄羅斯打一場“偉大的衛國戰爭”。

The irony is that Novorossiya will soon become a problem for the Russian president. The Kremlin will have to contend with heavily armed separatists, embittered by their failure to secure a stipend from Moscow, just as the tide of protest begins to rise at home.

具有諷刺意味的是，“新俄羅斯”將很快成爲普京的一個包袱。在國內興起抗議浪潮之際,克里姆林宮將不得不應對全副武裝的分裂分子，他們因爲未能從莫斯科領到薪俸而感到怨恨。

Moscow will have to keep its heroes at arm’s length. Those who are bravely fighting for a “Russian world” could quickly become a threat to Mr Putin if they were allowed into Russia proper. They are welcome in the motherland, but only in coffins.

莫斯科將不得不與他們的英雄保持距離。那些勇敢地爲“俄羅斯人的世界”戰鬥的人如果獲准進入俄羅斯本土，可能很快就會對普京造成威脅。他們在祖國受到歡迎，但只是在棺材裏。