中美爭議焦點從匯率轉向產能過剩

For years, currency concerns were at the top of the agenda for US economic policymakers visiting Beijing. But as the Obama administration’s economic team prepares for its final “strategic and economic dialogue” with Chinese counterparts next week, there are signs the renminbi has been usurped by a new worry.

多年來，對匯率的關切曾是美國經濟政策制定者訪華時的首要議程。但在奧巴馬政府經濟團隊籌劃下週的美中“戰略與經濟對話”（本次對話將是奧巴馬政府參與的最後一場）之際，有跡象表明，人民幣問題被新的擔憂取代了。

US officials have been expressing anxiety over Chinese industrial overcapacity and runaway production by the largely state-owned steel sector and other heavy industry that Beijing has pledged to rein in.

美國官員一直對中國工業產能過剩以及鋼鐵業和其他重工業剎不住車的產量表示憂慮——中國政府已承諾要控制住這些國企主導行業的產量。

Previewing the discussions, Nathan Sheets, the US Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, recently called for China to allow its industrial sectors “to better reflect capacity and global demand conditions”.

最近，在華盛頓布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)舉辦的一場爲下週的美中對話提供導覽的“預覽會”上，美國財政部負責國際事務的副部長納森•希茨(Nathan Sheets)呼籲中國讓其工業領域“更好地反映產能以及全球需求狀況”。

“This issue is an important one for the global economy and for the US economy and we hope to make some progress on it in . . . Beijing,” he told an audience at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

他在會上稱：“對於全球經濟以及美國經濟而言，這個問題很重要，我們希望在北京……在這個問題上取得一些進展。”

Chronic overcapacity in China’s steel sector has been blamed for a surge in cheap exports that have led to steel mill closures on both sides of the Atlantic.

外界一直認爲，中國鋼鐵行業的長期產能過剩，是導致國際市場上廉價出口鋼產品大幅增加的原因。廉價進口鋼產品已導致很多歐美鋼鐵廠破產。

In response, the EU has come under pressure not to grant China “market economy status”, which would make it more difficult to prosecute Chinese companies for alleged dumping. In Washington, meanwhile, the Obama administration has paved the way for a ban on Chinese steel imports as a retaliatory measure for suspected cyber espionage against US Steel of Pittsburgh.

作爲迴應，歐盟(EU)一直面臨壓力，不要賦予中國“市場經濟地位”——如果賦予市場經濟地位，以涉嫌傾銷爲由起訴中國企業的難度會加大。與此同時，在華盛頓，奧巴馬政府已爲禁止進口中國鋼產品鋪平道路，這是對中國企業涉嫌對位於匹茲堡的美國鋼鐵公司(US Steel)發動網絡間諜活動的報復。

Zhu Guangyao, China’s vice-finance minister, said at a briefing in Beijing on Thursday: “Trade disputes between China and the US should be addressed in accordance with World Trade Organisation principles. We are opposed to abusive trade remedy measures.”

中國財政部副部長朱光耀週四在北京的一次會議上表示：“要根據WTO的原則來解決我們之間的貿易爭端……反對濫用貿易救濟措施。”

Mr Sheets sounded sanguine about Beijing’s management of what the People’s Bank of China bills as a shift towards a greater market role in determining the value of the renminbi, something the US and others have been advocating for years.

中國央行(PBoC)稱，要在確定人民幣匯率方面轉向讓市場發揮更大作用（多年來美國和其他國家一直主張中國這樣做）。在這方面，希茨對中國政府的掌控能力感到樂觀。

China’s authorities have the resources to achieve this goal, he said. “And frankly that’s something we’ve seen over the past six months or so in terms of their management of the exchange rate.”

他表示，中國政府有能力實現這個目標。“坦率地講，過去6個月左右，我們觀察中國在管理人民幣匯率方面的作爲時所看到的情況就是如此。”

Concerns remain — the Treasury in April put China on a new currency manipulation watchlist — but senior current and former US officials see China’s “broad trajectory” on currency as positive. That is a far cry from the angst last summer when Beijing unveiled a policy that caused chaos in global financial markets.

關切依然存在——今年4月，美國財政部在新的匯率操縱國觀察名單中將中國列入其中。但美國現任及前任高官都認爲，中國在匯率上的“總體軌跡”是積極的。這與去年夏季的焦慮相去甚遠，當時中國政府發佈了一項政策，結果引發全球金融市場動盪。

At last year’s strategic and economic dialogue, held in Washington, the two sides pledged to “maintain candid communication on strategic economic issues”. Six months later, with China’s equity and currency markets in turmoil, the channels went dark. “Chinese officials just took their phones off the hook that week,” said one person involved in the dialogue.

在去年於華盛頓舉行的戰略和經濟對話中，雙方承諾“就戰略性經濟問題保持坦誠溝通”。6個月後，隨着中國的股市和匯市陷入動盪，對話渠道中斷了。一位參與對話的人士表示：“那一週，中方官員乾脆拔掉了他們的電話線。”

When communication resumed, Chinese officials assured their US counterparts they remained committed to structural economic reforms and would refrain from competitive currency devaluations. US officials seem prepared to take them at their word.

當溝通恢復的時候，中方官員向美方保證，他們依然致力於結構性經濟改革，不會搞競爭性貨幣貶值。美國官員似乎願意相信他們。

David Dollar, until 2013 the US Treasury’s top representative in China, said the once totemic issue of China’s currency has “moved back in the line of issues between the US and China”.

2009-13年曾擔任美國財政部駐華經濟與金融特使的杜大偉(David Dollar)表示，人民幣這個一度具有象徵意義的問題，“如今變成了美中之間一個不那麼重要的問題”。

The shift has been driven in large part by the meaningful appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar and other major currencies over the past decade to a point where the International Monetary Fund and others have argued it is fairly valued.

這種轉變在很大程度上是過去十年人民幣兌美元和其他主要貨幣匯率大幅升值推動的——人民幣已經升值至國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和其他機構認爲的合理水平。

The US also recognises that pressure on the renminbi is driven by capital flight, and concerns over China’s economy and the currency’s value being pushed down.

美國也承認，人民幣承受的壓力受到資本外流、對中國經濟的擔憂以及人民幣價值被壓低的推動。

This comes as there are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may decide to raise interest rates again soon, prompting a further strengthening of the US currency. “This is not the moment when you would [push China to] just stop intervening completely and just introduce a free exchange rate,” Mr Dollar said.

目前人們日益預期，美聯儲(Fed)可能很快再次決定加息，推動美元進一步走強。杜大偉表示：“現在不是你（推動中國）完全停止干預並推出自由匯率的好時機。”

China’s central bank has been selling down its foreign exchange reserves to cushion the Chinese currency’s recent declines. It is a contentious use of the country’s reserves, which have fallen by almost $800bn since peaking at $4tn.

中國央行一直在拋售外匯儲備來緩衝人民幣最近的下跌。中國這種使用外匯儲備的方式引起了爭議——中國外儲自達到4萬億美元的峯值以來下降了近8000億美元。

“The Chinese government worries too much about US reaction,” said Yu Yongding at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former PBoC adviser. “[Intervention] is a waste of foreign exchange reserves. We should use them to buy [assets], not prop up the exchange rate.”

中國社會科學院經濟學家、前央行顧問餘永定表示：“中國政府過於擔心美國的反應了。（干預）是對外匯儲備的浪費。我們應該使用外儲來購買（資產），而不是用來支撐匯率。”

Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China mission chief and the author of a forthcoming book on the renminbi, said the US Treasury was clearly eager to speak about other issues next week.

IMF中國部前負責人埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，美國財政部顯然渴望在下週談論人民幣以外的其他問題。普拉薩德有一本關於人民幣的新作即將出版。

That did not mean, however, that US and Chinese policymakers would be able to avoid “ritualistic” discussions on currency. “Like a sore tooth we all wish [the issue] would go away but it is likely to refuse to,” he said.

然而，這並不意味着美國和中國政策制定者將能夠避免“例行公事地”討論匯率。他說，“（這個問題）就像一顆發炎的牙齒，我們都希望炎症會消退，但它可能會頑固不消。”