TPP之死將重擊美國領導力
It is time to pronounce the Trans-Pacific Partnership clinically dead. Hillary Clinton had already put President Barack Obama’s signature deal — the biggest US trade initiative in more than a decade — on life support when she came out against it last year. Donald Trump has vowed to scrap it, which meant that whoever took the White House would have pledged its demise.
是時候宣佈《跨太平洋夥伴關係協議》(TPP)臨牀死亡的消息了。去年希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)站出來反對TPP之後，總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的這份招牌協議——美國十多年來提出的最大型的貿易倡議——就不得不靠機器維持生命了。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)更是誓言要廢掉TPP。這意味着，無論這兩個人誰入主白宮，他們都等於承諾了要終止TPP。
Yet the suspicion lingered that Mrs Clinton was simply following her husband’s bait-and-switch tactics. Former president Bill Clinton ran strongly against the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1992 only to do whatever it took to ensure Nafta passed after he took office.
不過，仍有人在懷疑，希拉里只是在仿效她丈夫的“偷樑換柱”伎倆。前總統比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)在1992年時強烈反對《北美自由貿易協定》(Nafta)，結果上臺後卻竭盡所能確保Nafta通過。
On Tuesday, Terry McAuliffe, the governor of Virginia and longtime friend of the Clintons, hinted that the Democratic nominee had exactly the same U-turn in mind for the 12-nation TPP. He was forced to disavow his words almost instantly. John Podesta, chairman of the Clinton campaign, tweeted that Mrs Clinton would be opposed to TPP before and after the election: “Period. Full Stop.”
週二，克林頓夫婦的老朋友、弗吉尼亞州州長特里•麥考利夫(Terry McAuliffe)暗示，對於12個成員國締結的TPP，希拉里這位民主黨候選人的想法也有同樣的180度大轉彎。他幾乎立刻就被迫否認自己的話。克林頓競選班子負責人約翰•波德斯塔(John Podesta)在推特上發言稱，無論選前還是選後，希拉里都會反對TPP。他還寫下了兩個“句號”(Period. Full Stop.)以示確定以及肯定。
It will not be the last time Mrs Clinton will be cajoled to reassure voters that she really means what she says. When she was secretary of state she described the TPP as the “gold standard” of trade deals — she was for it before she was against it.
這不會是希拉里最後一次被勸說向選民保證她說話算數。她擔任國務卿時曾形容TPP是“黃金標準”的貿易協議——她先是支持TPP，後來又反對TPP。
Mr Trump, the Republican nominee, will lose no opportunity to hammer her on that implicit contradiction. So too will Bernie Sanders’ supporters, whose anti-TPP signs bedecked the Philadelphia convention hall on Monday. To them, and other doubters of Mrs Clinton, her actions on TPP will be the chief barometer of her integrity. Whatever wiggle room she still has will thus continue to shrink.
共和黨候選人特朗普肯定要抓住機會利用這種明顯的前後矛盾來敲打希拉里。伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的支持者們也會這麼做。週一，他們在費城的民主黨全國代表大會會場上張貼了很多反對TPP的標語。對於他們以及其他懷疑希拉里的人而言，她在TPP方面的舉動將成爲檢驗其個人誠信的主要標準。無論她還剩有多少迴旋餘地，這種餘地都會繼續縮小。
But Mr Podesta left one key gap in his assurance that she would oppose TPP both as candidate and president — the lame duck Congress that will take place in the interregnum between November and January. This will be Mr Obama’s last chance to ratify TPP.
但波德斯塔關於希拉里無論作爲候選人還是總統都會反對TPP的保證留有一個關鍵破綻：從今年11月到明年1月這段政權交替期，國會將變成一隻坡腳鴨。那將是奧巴馬推動TPP獲得批准的最後機會。
His prospects were already looking shaky. Last year Congress passed the fast-track negotiating authority by just 10 votes. Most counts suggest that narrow margin has now vanished. Middle America’s antitrade backlash has only intensified.
他的勝算看起來不大。去年，國會僅以贊成票多10票的結果通過了快車道談判授權。當前大多數投票顯示，這點兒微弱的優勢也已喪失。美國中產階層反貿易的抵制情緒愈發強烈了。
How then could TPP rise from the dead? The only realistic scenario is that Mr Obama could somehow bludgeon the lame duck Congress to rush it on to the statute books after a landslide victory by Mrs Clinton.
那麼，TPP如何能起死回生呢？唯一有現實可能的情形是，在希拉里取得壓倒性大選勝利之後，奧巴馬設法脅迫坡腳鴨國會趕緊把TPP寫入法典。
It is virtually inconceivable Mrs Clinton could reprise her husband’s Nafta pivot on TPP after taking office. Attempting that would drain her political capital in the first few months and toxify whatever chances she had of building a reputation as a trustworthy leader.
無法想象希拉里上臺後會像其丈夫對待Nafta那樣轉向支持TPP。如果她嘗試那麼做，上任沒幾個月她的政治資本就會喪失殆盡，並毀掉打造可信賴領導人形象的所有機會。
Mr Sanders’ backers have already made it clear that the Democrats are ripe for a Tea Party-style takeover. A U-turn by Mrs Clinton would invite that fate by confirming every prejudice about Clintonite slipperiness. It would also kill her chances of enacting immigration reform, which she says will be her first priority in her first 100 days.
桑德斯的支持者已明確指出，民主黨人即將面臨一場茶黨式的接管。如果希拉里的態度來個180度大轉彎，就將坐實一切關於希拉里滑頭的偏見，從而招致這種命運。這也將扼殺她啓動移民改革的機會。她說了，移民改革將是她上任頭100天內的第一要務。
In other words, the TPP in its current form is dead — and it will be hard to bring it back to life in any other guise. The hit to America’s global leadership will be huge.
換言之，當前形式的TPP已經死了，也很難改頭換面復活過來。這將對美國的全球領導力造成巨大打擊。
Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton originally sold the deal as the economic plank of Washington’s “pivot to Asia”. It would set in stone the rules of engagement that China would have no choice but to follow.
奧巴馬和希拉里當初是把TPP作爲美國“重返亞洲”戰略的經濟支柱來兜售的。它將把打交道的規則變成白紙黑字，到那時中國除了遵守以外別無選擇。
Nature abhors a vacuum. If TPP dies at America’s hands, it will be the end of an era. Allies in Asia will look increasingly to China for economic leadership. Europe’s equivalent deal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, will die with it.
自然界裏是沒有真空的。如果TPP死於美國之手，那麼一個時代將隨之終結。美國的亞洲盟友將日益指望中國在經濟領域挑起領導角色。歐洲的同類貿易協議——《跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》(TTIP)將隨之消亡。
The era of US-led globalism will begin to unravel. It may well be a price worth paying — Mr Trump’s victory would sound the death knell for US globalism. But it is a high price nonetheless.
美國主導的“全球主義”(globalism)的時代將開始落幕。這可能是值得付出的代價——特朗普獲勝不啻於預告美國的全球主義將死。但這終究是高昂的代價。
