政治僵局損害美國全球領導力

The magical thing about America’s federal system is that when the centre stalls, the rest keeps calm and carries on. The US economic recovery is happening despite engine failure in Washington. This is just as well since there are few engineers to hand. No such fail-safe device exists for foreign policy. It used to be said that US politics stopped at the water’s edge. But the atrophy is seeping into every corner of US global engagement — from Israeli relations to Pacific trade talks. The costs are largely invisible. Yet there is a real price for the country’s growing unpredictability on the world stage.

美國聯邦體制的神奇一面是，當中央政府停擺時，其餘機構能夠淡定地照常運轉。美國經濟正在復甦，儘管華盛頓引擎失靈。這倒也不錯，因爲美國手頭也沒幾個工程師能把引擎修好。外交政策方面則不存在這樣的保險裝置。過去人們常說，美國政治止於海岸線。但是從美以關係到太平洋貿易談判，美國在外交領域各個角落都在萎縮。這種萎縮的代價在很大程度上是看不見的。然而美國在世界舞臺上的表現變得越來越不可預測，這有一個切實的代價。

Things were meant to be taking a turn for the better by now. When Republicans took control of Congress in November a line was supposedly drawn under the previous six years’ impasse. Until then, they could block everything the president wanted safe in the knowledge that inattentive voters would blame the Democrats. Once Republicans had control of both chambers, voters would hold them to account. That forecast already looks too rosy. The Republicans are as opposed to Barack Obama’s domestic agenda as before and the Democrats are in disarray. Instead of breaking the logjam, gridlock is spreading like an inkblot into US foreign policy.

情況本有望出現轉機。在去年11月共和黨掌控國會的時候，先前持續6年的僵局原本理應告一段落。在此之前，人們預言，共和黨議員之所以敢於封殺美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)想要通過的任何提案，是因爲他們知道粗心的選民將會怪罪到民主黨頭上。一旦參衆兩院都被共和黨控制，選民們就會怪罪共和黨。這種預言現在看來過於樂觀了。共和黨和以前一樣反對奧巴馬的所有國內議程，而民主黨人則四分五裂。僵局不僅沒有被打破，反而像墨水跡一樣沁入美國的外交政策。

The biggest casualty is the US’s ability to manage the chaos in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory in last week’s Israel election came after he had thumbed his nose at Mr Obama in the most partisan address ever given by a foreigner to the US Congress. For all intents, Mr Netanyahu was offered membership of the Republican party. The following week 47 Republican senators, or nearly half the upper chamber, told Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei they would rescind any nuclear deal struck by Mr Obama. They will now work hand in glove with the chairman of the Republicans in the Middle East — also known as “Bibi” — to sabotage their president’s initiative.

受傷害最大的是美國管理中東亂局的能力。本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)在不久前舉行的以色列大選中獲勝，此前內塔尼亞胡曾在一場向美國國會發表的演講中對奧巴馬錶示了蔑視——這場演講是外國人向美國國會發表的最具黨派色彩的演講。無論從哪方面來看，內塔尼亞胡都像是被授予了共和黨黨員身份。在隨後的一週裏，47名共和黨參議員（幾乎是參議院議員總數的一半）向伊朗的阿亞圖拉•阿里•哈梅內伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)表示，他們將廢除奧巴馬簽署的任何核協議。眼下，他們將與內塔尼亞胡（暱稱“比比(Bibi)”）這位“共和黨中東地區主席”合作，來破壞奧巴馬的倡議。

Capitol Hill’s disunity is also hindering Mr Obama’s ability to wage war on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis. Part of it is self-inflicted. By declaring that he will not put US boots on the ground, Mr Obama has limited the Pentagon’s ability to advise the Iraqi army on the battlefield — much to Baghdad’s annoyance. Iraqis partly blame Mr Obama for their failure so far to recapture Tikrit. But Capitol Hill is making the problem worse. Mr Obama has requested authorisation to fight Isis. Republicans believe he is asking for too little authority and Democrats believe he is asking for too much. The upshot is that Mr Obama is unlikely to receive approval from Congress, which will further cramp his political leeway to wage war on Isis. Until recently, the fight against Islamist terrorism was mostly bipartisan. It, too, is now gridlocked.

國會山的不團結也影響了奧巴馬打擊“伊拉克與黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(Isis)的能力。這在一定程度上是咎由自取。奧巴馬曾宣稱，他不會派遣地面部隊作戰，從而限制了五角大樓爲戰場上的伊拉克軍隊提供指導的能力，這讓巴格達大爲不滿。伊拉克人一定程度上將他們迄今未能收復提克里特歸咎於奧巴馬。但國會山讓問題變得更加糟糕。奧巴馬要求獲得打擊Isis的授權。共和黨人認爲，他要求的授權太少了，民主黨人則認爲他要得太多了。結果是，奧巴馬不太可能獲得國會的授權，這將進一步限制他打擊Isis的政治迴旋餘地。就在不久前，兩黨基本上還都是同意打擊伊斯蘭恐怖主義的。現在，兩黨在這個問題上也陷入了僵持。

The threat to Mr Obama’s trade agenda is also growing. To wrap up the 12-member Pacific trade talks, he needs fast-track negotiating authority from the US Congress. Each of his predecessors has received it. Here was one area — free trade — where a Republican majority could work in the White House’s favour. Alas, more wishful thinking. The left remains implacably opposed to any trade agreement — the AFL-CIO, America’s largest union, has promised to stop funding any Democrat who votes for the Pacific deal. Meanwhile, Tea Party Republicans are loath to grant Mr Obama plenipotentiary negotiating powers. Their support for free trade is eclipsed by their dislike of Mr Obama. With each week, his trade ambitions look a little more wobbly.

奧巴馬貿易議程面臨的威脅也在增加。爲了完成有12個成員國參加的太平洋貿易談判，他需要獲得美國國會的“快車道”(fast track)談判授權。他的每一位前任都獲得了這種授權。白宮原本以爲，在自由貿易這一個議題上，絕大多數共和黨人總算可以順自己意。唉，沒想到這還是一廂情願。左翼依然堅決反對任何貿易協議——美國最大的工會勞聯-產聯(AFL-CIO)起誓不再向投票支持太平洋協議的民主黨人提供任何資金。與此同時，茶黨共和黨議員又不願授予奧巴馬全權談判權。他們對奧巴馬的憎惡蓋過了他們對自由貿易的支持。每過一個星期，奧巴馬打造貿易協議的抱負就顯得暗淡幾分。

Gridlock is even undercutting Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia”. Observers blame him for the fact that US allies, led by Britain, are rushing to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank against America’s wishes. Mr Obama has failed to spell out the conditions under which the US would lift its opposition. But the problem originates on Capitol Hill. China’s desire to create a parallel set of multilateral institutions stems from the US’s inability to reform existing ones. US Congress is alone in refusing to endorse IMF reform — an essential step towards giving China a voice that better reflects its economic size.

僵局甚至會破壞奧巴馬的“轉向亞洲”戰略。以英國爲首的美國盟友不顧美國的反對，競相加入中國的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB)，觀察人士認爲奧巴馬應對此負責。奧巴馬一直未能闡明美國將在何種條件下放棄反對。但這個問題的種子是國會山埋下的。中國之所以想要創建一套平行的國際金融機構，其根本原因在於美國無力改革現有的那些國際金融機構。不同意國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)改革的只有美國國會，而要給予中國與其經濟體量相符的更多話語權，改革IMF是關鍵一步。

On some measures China is now the world’s biggest economy, yet it has barely a sixth of America’s IMF weighting. Two US presidents — George W Bush and Mr Obama — negotiated the IMF reforms. Yet Congress is refusing to comply. Who can really blame Beijing for striking out on its own? If the US cannot accommodate a rising China in the bodies it leads, China will create its own. The AIIB controversy is far from esoteric. It is within such institutions that wrangling over future global leadership will take place.

按某些標準衡量，中國如今已經是全球最大的經濟體，但它在IMF中的投票權仍然只有美國的六分之一。美國兩任總統——小布什(George W Bush)和奧巴馬——都曾提議改革IMF，但均被美國國會否決。誰能真的指責中國政府單幹呢？如果美國在自己主導的機構中容不下中國，中國當然會創建自己的機構。亞投行的論戰並不深奧。關於明日全球領導權的爭吵，正是在此類機構中進行的。

At times of great flux, it is tempting to reach back to history for reassurance. There is nothing new about Congress making a mess of US foreign policy. Its refusal to ratify Woodrow Wilson’s League of Nations in 1919 was more fateful than anything taking place now. America’s absence from the world stage created a vacuum that helped pave the way for Hitler. That is hardly a comforting precedent. Over the past seven decades, Congress has for the most part played a supporting role to US foreign policy. That era is fading rapidly. Foreigners can no longer dismiss US gridlock as a local eccentricity. It is imposing an increasingly steep tax on America’s global leadership.

在大變遷時代，人們會忍不住重溫歷史來尋求慰藉。國會在美國外交政策上搗亂並不是什麼新鮮事。1919年它否決了伍德羅•威爾遜(Woodrow Wilson)創建國際聯盟(League of Nations)的提案，這比如今發生的任何事都更加致命。美國當時缺席國際舞臺，使得國際政治出現了真空地帶，爲希特勒(Hitler)的崛起鋪平了道路。這個先例很難讓人感到安慰。在過去70年裏，美國國會在大多數時候都扮演着美國外交政策支持者的角色。那個時代正在迅速消亡。外國人已不能繼續將美國的政治僵局僅僅視爲這個國家的一件怪事而不拿它當一回事了。它正在對美國的全球領導力造成日益嚴重的影響。