全球民主大衰退 目前的國際政治氣氛不樂觀
Sometimes one or two events can change the political mood all over the world. The release of Nelson Mandela from prison in February 1990 came just three months after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Those two events inspired democrats and liberals across the globe.
有時，一兩件事便可以改變全世界的政治氣氛。在柏林牆倒塌僅僅3個月之後的1990年2月，納爾遜•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)獲釋了。這兩件事鼓舞了全球各地的民主主義者和自由主義者。
Sadly, the current international mood is much less optimistic and much less friendly to democracy. It has been shaped above all by the collapse of the Arab spring of 2011 into bloodshed and anarchy. Autocrats all over the world, above all in Russia and China, now point to the Middle East as an example of the dangers of premature democratisation.
不幸的是，目前的國際政治氣氛要不樂觀得多、對民主的態度也不友好得多。這首先是在2011年的“阿拉伯之春”潰敗並導致流血事件與混亂局面的影響之下的結果。如今，世界各地、最重要的是俄羅斯和中國的獨裁者，把中東說成是過早民主化帶來危險的一個例證。
The politicians who captured the spirit of the early 1990s were inspirational democrats such as Mandela, Václav Havel in Czechoslovakia — and liberal reformers such as Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin in Russia. Today, the leaders that seem to embody the spirit of the age are autocrats with scant respect for democratic values — men like Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the presidents of Russia and Turkey; as well as Donald Trump, a trash-talking demagogue who has somehow become the Republican nominee for president of the US.
1990年代初，代表着時代精神的政治家是曼德拉和捷克斯洛伐克的瓦茨拉夫•哈維爾(Václav Havel)等令人鼓舞的民主主義者，以及俄羅斯的米哈伊爾•戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)和鮑里斯•葉利欽(Boris Yeltsin)等自由派改革家。今天，象徵着時代精神的領導人是根本不尊重民主價值觀的獨裁者——比如俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)和土耳其總統雷傑普•塔伊普•埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)等人；以及不知怎麼當上了美國共和黨總統候選人、愛講“垃圾話”的煽動者納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)。
The figures confirm the general impression that this is a bad period for democrats. Freedom House, a think-tank that issues an annual report on the state of democracy, argues that political freedom has been in global retreat for the past decade. It reported earlier this year that in 2015, “the number of countries showing a decline in freedom for the year — 72 — was the largest since the 10-year slide began”.
這些人物證實了一個總體印象：這是一個對民主主義者而言的糟糕時期。每年發佈各國民主狀況的智庫自由之家(Freedom House)認爲，過去十年裏，政治自由一直處於全球性衰退中。自由之家在今年早些時候稱，2015年“當年自由程度降低的國家數量——72個——是這輪十年衰退開始以來最多的一次”。
The least free part of the world is the Middle East, which is a bitter disappointment given the hopes aroused by the uprisings against autocratic regimes that broke out across the Arab world five years ago. Egypt is suffering from a harsher autocracy than the Mubarak regime that was overthrown in 2011.
世界上最不自由的地區是中東。這一點令人非常失望，因爲在5年前，席捲阿拉伯世界的反對獨裁政權的暴動，曾喚起了人們的希望。如今，埃及民衆正在忍受的獨裁統治，其專制程度超過了2011年被推翻的穆巴拉克(Mubarak)政府。
Even in Europe, some of the freedoms won in 1989 are imperilled. In both Poland and Hungary there has been an erosion of press freedom and judicial independence. In Turkey, on the borders of the EU, hard-won freedoms are also being lost as journalists and judges are arrested in the wake of an attempted coup.
甚至在歐洲，在1989年贏得的一些自由也受到了威脅。在波蘭和匈牙利，言論自由和司法獨立遭到了削弱。在緊挨歐盟(EU)邊界的土耳其，來之不易的自由正在喪失，記者和法官在一場未遂政變之後遭到逮捕。
In part of Asia, things have also gone backwards. Thailand experienced a military coup in 2014 and this weekend voted in favour of a new constitution that could cement the military’s control over politics. In Malaysia, liberals are in despair at the machinations of the scandal-plagued government and Anwar Ibrahim, a prominent opposition leader, is once again in prison.
在亞洲的部分地區，也發生了倒退。2014年，泰國發生了一場軍事政變，上週末的投票結果是支持一部可能強化軍方對政局控制的新憲法。在馬來西亞，自由主義者對醜聞纏身的政府的陰謀詭計感到失望，著名反對派領袖安瓦爾•易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)被再度投入監獄。
In the two most important autocratic powers — Russia and China — the governments are cracking down harder on liberals who dare to challenge the prevailing regimes.
在俄羅斯和中國這兩個最重要的獨裁大國，政府正加大對於膽敢挑戰現政權的自由主義者的打擊力度。
Last week China issued long prison sentences for human rights lawyers in Tianjin and forced others into humiliating apologies. At about the same time, in Russia, Yevgeny Urlashov, a prominent opposition politician, was sentenced to 12 years in a penal colony on corruption charges that appear to have been trumped up.
上週在中國天津，多名維權律師被判處了多年刑期，其他一些人被迫屈辱地道歉。大概在同一時間，俄羅斯知名反對派政治家葉夫根尼•烏爾拉紹夫(Yevgeny Urlashov)由於似乎爲杜撰的腐敗罪名，被判在一處流放地監禁12年。
The problems of democracy have extended even into the US, the “leader of the free world”. Even if Mr Trump fails to win the presidency, he has already done immense harm to the prestige and dignity of US democracy.
民主的問題甚至蔓延到了美國這個“自由世界的領袖之國”。即便特朗普不能贏得總統選舉，他已經給美國民主的聲譽和尊嚴造成了莫大的傷害。
But amid all this bleak news it is important to remember that not all the trends are pointing in the wrong direction. In Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi — who was under house arrest when Mandela was released in 1990, has been freed — and the country’s first civilian-led government for more than half a century took power earlier this year. Democracy seems well established in Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country. And Nigeria, Africa’s largest country, last year saw its first presidential election in which an incumbent lost — and then ceded power peacefully.
但面對所有這些令人悲觀的新聞，有必要記住，並非所有的趨勢都沿着錯誤的方向演變。在緬甸，當曼德拉於1990年獲釋時處於軟禁之中的昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)，已獲得了自由，而且該國半個多世紀以來的首個文官政府在今年早些時候執掌了權力。在全球第四人口大國印尼，民主似乎已站穩腳跟。在非洲最大國家尼日利亞，去年總統選舉中首次看到執政黨敗選，然後以和平方式移交了權力。
Most important of all, the evidence remains that, for all the cultural and economic differences between countries, ordinary people all over the world eventually get fed up of corruption, censorship, injustice and political violence.
最重要的是，仍有證據表明，儘管各國之間存在很大的文化和經濟差異，但世界各地的普通民衆終於受夠了腐敗、審查、不公正和政治暴力。
Just this weekend, people were out on the streets of Ethiopia, demonstrating against a government that has delivered rapid economic growth but also sharply restricted political freedoms. In recent years, pro-democracy demonstrators have taken to the streets of Hong Kong and Ukraine to demand political and civil liberties.
就在上週末，埃塞俄比亞民衆走上街頭，進行了遊行示威，反對那個雖然帶來經濟飛速發展、但也嚴重限制政治自由的政府。近些年來，支持民主的抗議者也走上香港和烏克蘭的街頭，要求獲得政治與公民自由。
The uncertain nature of the moment we are living through is captured by current events in South Africa, which played such an inspiring role in the 1990s. Last week the ANC, the party of Mandela, saw its support slump in local elections as voters reacted against the corruption and inefficiency of the government of President Jacob Zuma. The pessimistic view is that Mr Zuma and his cronies will do whatever it takes to hang on — and that their machinations will further damage South African democracy. The optimistic view is that the ANC’s electoral troubles are an example of democracy’s ability to renew politics as voters turn to new parties like the Democratic Alliance.
我們當下所處的這個時刻的不確定性，在南非目前的局勢中得到了體現。南非曾在1990年代起到了那麼鼓舞人心的作用。上週，曼德拉昔日所屬政黨非國大(ANC)在地方選舉中支持率大幅下降，選民們以行動反對祖馬(Jacob Zuma)政府的腐敗和低效率。悲觀看法是，祖馬和他的密友們將盡其所能抓住權力不放——他們的陰謀詭計將進一步損害南非民主。樂觀看法是，非國大的選舉失利是一個例子，證明了民主具有更新政治局面的能力——選民們倒向了南非民主聯盟(Democratic Alliance)等新政黨。
The very nervousness of leaders like presidents Zuma, Putin and Erdogan is telling. Behind their swagger lurks a deep insecurity. Autocracy might be making advances across the world. But it always ultimately sparks resistance.
像祖馬、普京和埃爾多安等領導人的焦慮，很能說明問題。在他們意氣風發的背後，隱藏着一種深深的危機感。獨裁或許會在全世界範圍內進一步得勢。但是，獨裁終將遭到抵抗。
