穆迪 中國企業財務前景不樂觀

The financial outlook for Chinese companies is deteriorating at a record rate as a large debt overhang accumulated since the 2008 financial crisis and waning corporate profits presage an “extended period of subpar economic growth”, according to Moody’s, the credit rating agency.

信用評級機構穆迪(Moody’s)稱，中國企業的財務前景正以創紀錄速度惡化，自2008年金融危機以來積累的沉重債務負擔和不斷減弱的企業利潤預示着“較長時期的偏低經濟增長”。

The agency more than quadrupled the number of Chinese debt issuers it classified as having a “negative outlook bias” on their credit ratings at the end of the first quarter of this year, compared to the end of 2015.

與2015年底相比，該機構在今年第一季度末列爲信用評級“負面展望偏向”的中國發債人數量增加了3倍。

A negative bias includes both those companies with ratings on review for a downgrade and those with a negative outlook on their rating.

負面偏向包括兩類企業：一是那些評級正受到調降評估的企業，二是那些評級展望爲負面的企業。

“The share of rated issuers in China with a negative outlook bias . . . has increased to a record high of 69 per cent,” Moody’s said in a report yesterday. This proportion was up from 15.7 per cent at the end of last year and 33.3 per cent at the end of March.

“在中國的獲評級發行人當中，具有負面展望偏向的發行人的比例……已升至69%的創紀錄高位，”穆迪昨日在一份報告中表示。這一比例在去年底爲15.7%，3月底爲33.3%。

The previous peak proportion of rated Chinese debt issuers with a “negative outlook bias” was 45.5 per cent, a level hit in May 2009 as the Chinese economy suffered in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Moody’s rates hundreds of corporations, a cohort that includes many of the most significant companies in the country.

此前有“負面展望偏向”的中國債券發行人的最高比例爲45.5%，那是在2009年5月創下的，當時中國經濟正受到金融危機餘波的打擊。穆迪對數百家公司進行評級，包括許多中國最舉足輕重的企業。

The upsurge in misgivings over the health of corporate China comes after Moody’s dropped the outlook for China’s government bonds in March to negative from stable, reflecting an erosion in fiscal strength, a fall in foreign exchange reserves owing to capital outflows and uncertainly over Beijing’s ability to implement reforms.

對中國企業界健康狀況的擔憂加劇之前，穆迪在3月份曾將中國政府債券的展望從穩定調降至負面，反映出中國財政實力受到削弱，資本外流導致外匯儲備下降，以及圍繞北京方面落實改革能力的不確定性。

In spite of the growing signs of financial distress, Moody’s said it thought China has the capacity to avoid a financial unravelling. “We believe that China’s authorities have the tools to prevent a financial crisis from materialising in the near future,” said the report. It added that the fact that the Chinese banking system was state-backed, funded domestically and that authorities had considerable powers of moral suasion all helped to impart solidity.

儘管財務困境的跡象越來越多，但穆迪表示，它認爲中國具備避免金融動盪的能力。“我們相信，中國政府擁有必要工具，能夠防止金融危機在不久的將來成爲現實，”報告稱。它補充說，中國的銀行體系是國家支持的，資金來自國內，而當局擁有較大的道德說服力量，這些事實都有利於保持穩健。

Nevertheless, the strain of covering China’s manifold financial frailties would impose a “substantial deadweight cost” on the economy, the report added. The price of this would be expressed in the persistence of large unrecognised banking sector losses, misallocation of capital, delays to the reduction in excess capacity and economic rebalancing, and a prolonged period of suboptimal growth, the report said.

話雖如此，報告又稱，應對中國多方面金融弱點所帶來的負擔，將對經濟造成“可觀的拖累成本”。報告表示，這種代價的體現形式將包括：銀行業的巨大損失繼續不被確認，資本配置不當，經濟再平衡和減少過剩產能的努力被延後，以及較長時期的偏低增長。

An expression of this pain is evident in corporate balance sheets, where the incremental capital output ratio — which measures the amount of investment required to generate a unit of economic growth — clearly shows worsening productivity. This ratio rose to 6.3 in 2014, the highest since the 2008 crisis and much higher than the pre-crisis 2.9 times seen in 2007.

這種痛苦明顯體現於企業的資產負債表，其中的增量資本產出率（衡量產生一個單位的經濟增長所需的投資）清楚地表明生產率不斷惡化。這一比率在2014年升至6.3倍，這是自2008年爆發金融危機以來的最高位，而且遠高於危機前2007年的2.9倍。

In addition, the return on assets for state-owned companies has reached its lowest level since 2001.

此外，國有企業的資產回報率已達到自2001年以來的最低水平。