A股納入MSCI指數前景不樂觀

China’s domestic stock Markets look set to be denied entry into international benchmarks for the fourth year in a row unless Chinese regulators remove major obstacles before next June.

中國A股看起來將會連續第四年被拒絕納入國際基準指數，除非中國監管機構在明年6月前消除主要障礙。

Dimitris Melas, head of equity research at MSCI, provider of the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index, gave a downbeat assessment yesterday of the prospects for China’s A-shares to be included in the index next year, in spite of the imminent opening of the Shenzhen stock market to global investors.

MSCI明晟新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Markets index)的提供方MSCI明晟(MSCI)的股票研究主管季米特里斯.梅拉斯(Dimitris Melas)，昨日對中國A股明年納入該指數的前景做出了悲觀評估，儘管深圳股市即將對全球投資者開放。

The inclusion of an initial 5 per cent of A-shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index would be seen as a pivotal moment in China’s gradual opening to flows of global capital.

若A股最初以5%的權重納入MSCI新興市場指數，將被視爲中國逐步向全球資本開放的關鍵時刻。

Accession to the benchmark, which includes 833 stocks from 23 emerging markets, would oblige fund managers who track the index to invest in Chinese A-shares, triggering huge inflows of capital to China.

MSCI新興市場指數包含來自23個新興市場的833只股票，中國A股納入該指數將迫使追蹤該指數的基金公司投資中國A股，從而引發鉅額資金流入中國。

Clients have recognised that a lot of the obstacles [to A-share inclusion] are being removed, so there is progress, said Mr Melas.

梅拉斯表示：客戶已經意識到許多（阻礙A股納入的）障礙正在消除，因此有所進展。

Having said that, clients also recognise that there are still some major obstacles.

話雖如此，客戶也意識到，現在仍存在一些主要障礙。

Optimism over the potential inclusion of A-shares has grown in recent weeks as China prepares to launch the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect, which may open next week.

隨着中國準備啓動深港通(Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)——可能於下週啓動——最近幾周外界對該指數可能納入A股日益樂觀。

The stock connect, together with an existing trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai, will be the only direct route for foreign investors to trade mainland stocks without prior approval from Beijing.

深港通與現有的滬港通將是外國投資者在不用預先獲得中國政府批准情況下投資A股的僅有直接渠道。

The scheme eases accessibility for ¬foreign investors to China’s domestic markets — one of the sticking points preventing MSCI from granting A-share inclusion.

深港通可以讓外國投資者進入中國國內市場變得更便利——外資准入問題是阻止MSCI納入A股的癥結之一。

Another obstacle is that foreign investors who sell Chinese shares can only repatriate 20 per cent of their holdings a month, meaning it would take five months to trade out of China’s markets.

另一個障礙是，賣出A股的外國投資者每月匯出資金不能超過境內資產的20%，這意味着他們需要5個月時間才能退出中國市場。

In addition, moves by the Chinese authorities last year to rescue plummeting stock prices by suspending hundreds of shares created real problems for foreign fund managers, with many stocks still suspended, Mr Melas said.

此外，梅拉斯表示，中國當局去年爲救市而讓數百隻股票停牌對外國基金公司造成了切實的問題，如今還有許多股票處於停牌當中。