MSCI指數再次拒絕A股 擔憂中國政府幹預

SHANGHAI — Chinese stocks had seemed poised to join an important global benchmark, paving the way for overseas money to pour into the country’s markets.

上海——中國股市看上去已經準備好加入一個重要的全球指數，以便爲海外資金涌入國內市場鋪平道路。

But the provider of the index, MSCI, decided that China was not yet ready, again holding off on adding mainland stocks to its influential emerging-markets benchmark.

然而，指數供應商MSCI明晟再次決定延遲將中國A股納入這個重要的新興市場指數，表示中國還沒有做好準備。

The decision, announced on Tuesday, was a blow not only to despondent local investors but for the Chinese government more broadly. For several years, China had been pushing hard to increase its sway in global financial markets, an effort that recently resulted in having its currency, the renminbi, included in the exclusive club of currencies at the International Monetary Fund.

本週二宣佈的這個決定不僅讓本地投資者失望，也在更宏觀的層面上令中國政府遭受了打擊。幾年來，中國一直在大力提升本國在全球金融市場的影響力，人民幣最近就加入了國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的一個高級俱樂部。

A year ago, China seemed close to having won over MSCI, whose remaining major concern was the difficulty for foreigners to buy and sell stocks in China, where the government has significant influence over markets.

一年前，中國看上去即將贏得MSCI明晟的認可。當時它的主要顧慮是境外人士在中國買賣股票頗爲困難，政府對股市影響很大。

One stock market crash later, however, the government’s grip has grown tighter.

不過後來股市崩潰，政府反而加緊了對它的掌控。

The heavy-handed government intervention after the crash raised questions about whether China’s volatile and highly speculative local markets could pass muster with global investors and regulators. Tactics used included banning big shareholders from selling stocks, detaining investors who bet on falling share prices and even suppressing independent economic information.

政府在股市暴跌後採取的重大幹預行動引發了外界的疑問：中國股市波動巨大，投機性很強，它是否符合全球投資者和監管機構的要求？中國採取的措施包括禁止大股東拋售股票，拘押空頭投資者，甚至是打壓來自獨立渠道的經濟信息。

The extra money flowing into mainland stocks, or A shares, would have provided a much-needed boost. Despite the government intervention, Chinese stocks have been in a deep slump, off about 40 percent in the last 12 months.

如果有額外的資金注入A股，就可以爲它提供急需的推動力。儘管中國政府採取了干預措施，中國股市卻一直低迷，在過去12個月中跌幅達到40%左右。

“International institutional investors clearly indicated that they would like to see further improvements in the accessibility of the China A shares market before its inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index,” Remy Briand, the global head of research at MSCI, said in a statement on Tuesday.

“國際機構投資者明確表示，他們希望看到中國A股在被納入MSCI新興市場指數之前，其開放性得到進一步改善，”MSCI明晟負責全球研究的雷米·布賴恩德(Remy Briand)在週二的聲明中稱。

MSCI said it would reconsider A shares for inclusion in 2017.

MSCI明晟表示，將在2017年重新考慮是否納入A股。

The index provider’s decision to delay for another year highlights persistent concerns among global investors about government meddling in local markets as well as the quality of regulation and company accounts.

MSCI明晟做出再延遲一年的決定，突顯了全球投資者對中國政府幹預股市、對監管質量及企業會計水準的持續擔憂。

“Accounting in China is a state secret,” said Hugh Young, who oversees investments in Asia for Aberdeen, one of the world’s largest emerging markets investors. “Our money goes into companies, and we have had trouble finding the right ones to invest in.”

“在中國，會計賬目是國家機密，”全球最大的新興市場投資機構之一安本(Aberdeen)在亞洲的負責人楊修(Hugh Young)說。“我們的錢會進入企業，但我們已經很難找到合適的公司來投資。”

Most large investors get their China equity exposure by investing in large companies listed in Hong Kong or other overseas markets — like the internet giants Tencent and Alibaba — where companies must adhere to globally accepted financial rules and regulations. MSCI’s weighing toward China was already 25 percent, the largest of all the countries it tracks; analysts were guessing that China’s inclusion would add another 1 percent of Chinese exposure.

多數大型投資機構通過投資在香港或其他海外市場上市的大型企業——比如互聯網巨頭騰訊和阿里巴巴——的方式，來獲得中國股票資產。在這些市場，公司必須遵循全球公認的財務規則和監管條例。中國在MSCI中的實際比重已經達到25%，是該指數追蹤的最大一個國家；分析師們猜測，納入A股將把這個比重再提高一個百分點。

MSCI said investors were also bothered by the stiff limits imposed on foreign investors withdrawing their funds from China.

MSCI明晟表示，投資者還有另一個困擾：境外投資者從中國撤出資金面臨着嚴格限制。

The verdict will do little to lift the mood in China’s once bustling brokerage halls.

這個判定幾乎無助於讓中國曾經繁忙的交易廳興奮起來。

On a recent afternoon inside a poorly lit trading hall near People’s Park in Shanghai, a dozen or so elderly investors were chatting among themselves as the final minutes of another trading day ticked away.

近日的一個下午，在上海人民公園附近一家光線昏暗的交易廳裏，當天的交易時段馬上就要結束，十幾個老年股民正在聊天。

As the stock prices flashing on a bank of 21 LCD screens attested, the main Shanghai share index had staged a modest rally to recover from its earlier losses. But once again, the index had slumped back down into negative turf by the 3 p.m. close.

牆上21塊液晶屏上閃爍着股票價格。上證指數之前在跌，後來小幅反彈。但是下午3點休市時已經又跌回陰線。

“It’s not about waiting it out, because if you try you will probably get wiped out,” said Mr. Ye, a 62-year-old retiree who declined to give his full name when speaking critically about the government’s stock market rescue efforts.

“等不是辦法，如果你等，可能就會輸得精光，”不願透露全名的退休人員老葉說。他62歲，對政府的救市努力頗有微辭。

“It is really painful,” he added, estimating that most of the investors at the Shanghai trading hall had lost money over the past year. “This market isn’t really regulated.”

“真的很難受，”他還說。“股市沒有被真正管起來。”他估計，這個上海交易廳的大多數股民過去一年都虧了錢。

The MSCI decision speaks to the caution signs in the market.

MSCI明晟的決定體現了市場的警惕。

When the index company delayed its decision a year ago, mainland stocks were at their frothiest. They had more than doubled over the previous 12 months.

一年前這家基準供應商推遲做出決定時，大陸股市泡沫正處在頂峯。在那之前的12個月裏，其股市漲了一倍多。

At the time, the company said it was concerned about a number of restrictions in China. Certain rules made it challenging for global investors to move money in and out of the country, or even to prove with certainty their ownership of shares.

當時公司稱他們擔心的是中國的一些限制措施。一些規則阻礙了國際投資人的錢在這個國家的進出，甚至不能明確證明他們對股票的所有權。

Global investors also fretted about the curious ability of Chinese companies to stop trading in their stock whenever it seemed to suit their own needs. The practice stopped shares under pressure from falling further, but it did so by preventing investors from cashing out.

中國公司可以在任何他們覺得必要的時候停止其股票交易，這種奇特的能力令國際投資者十分苦惱。這種做法可以阻止有下行壓力的股票進一步下跌，但同時也阻止投資者將股票拋出。

With an eye on making the cut at MSCI, China sought to address these concerns in recent months.

爲了達到MSCI明晟的標準，中國在過去幾個月裏試圖去解決這些困擾。

Last month, China’s stock exchanges published new rules that discouraged companies from halting trading in their own shares. China also took steps to give foreign investors greater access to its markets by increasing investment quotas.

上個月，中國的證交所發佈新規，對企業的停牌加以限制。中國還通過增加投資額度來讓外國投資者可以更多地進入其市場。

Last week, China said it would grant an initial renminbi-denominated investment quota to the United States, allowing American funds to purchase stocks worth as much as 250 billion renminbi, or $38 billion. American investors could previously buy into Chinese stocks through other methods, but the new quota provided significant direct access and ranked as the second-biggest of its kind under the renminbi program, after Hong Kong’s.

上週，中國稱將向美國提供一筆人民幣合格境外機構投資者額度，美國基金共可購買2500億人民幣（約合380億美元）的股票。美國投資者此前可以通過其他途徑購買中國股票，但新的額度大大降低了直接進入市場的門檻，使美國擁有了該人民幣結算項目的第二大額度，僅次於香港。

This follows previous moves to open up mainland markets through a newer link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets, although it is also subject to investment caps and quotas. Chinese officials have said they plan to make stocks listed in Shenzhen eligible for the same scheme, connecting them to the Hong Kong market later this year.

在此之前，香港和上海股市建立了新的聯繫，從而進一步開放大陸市場，不過那種途徑同樣要收到上限和額度的限制。中國官員稱他們打算把深圳股市也採取同樣的方式處理，在今年晚些時候和香港股市連通。

Still, efforts to improve market regulations may be cold comfort for ordinary Chinese investors who are still nursing losses from last year’s stock market fallout.

但對於普通的中國投資者而言，去年股市崩盤的損失讓他們心有餘悸，這些改善市場監管的努力恐怕起不到什麼安慰作用。

Mr. Tao, a 63-year-old retiree at the Shanghai brokerage who declined to give his first name because he spoke critically of the government’s actions, said he used a bit of his monthly pension of 1,600 renminbi, or $243, to dabble in the stock market.

在上海的證券大廳，63歲的退休人士陶先生說，他在用每月1600元退休金中的一部分玩股票。由於涉及批評政府行爲的言論，他拒絕透露自己的全名。

Taking a break outside the brokerage to chat over a red Double Happiness cigarette, Mr. Tao said he was sitting on tidy profits until the market turned downward last June.

正在大廳外抽着雙喜煙休息的陶先生說，他當時是穩賺的，結果去年6月股市開始暴跌。

Since then, his investments have given back more than 70 percent of those gains.

此後他在投資中賺到的錢70%以上又賠了回去。

“In investing, one misstep and you’re nabbed,” Mr. Tao said.

“炒股是一不小心就要套牢的，”陶先生說。

He added that it could take years to recover his lost profits. “Now I just want to wait it out,” he said.

他還說自己的收益損失可能要好幾年才能收回來。“現在就只能是等了，”他說。