MSCI納入A股對澳股市影響大

When Chinese stocks won admission to MSCI’s indices last week, Australia was not the first market many people looked to — but it is arguably one of the most affected. That is because in the broader Asia-Pacific region, where investors typically put Tokyo in a category all of its own, wins for Shanghai and Shenzhen will come at the expense of Sydney — already the region’s worst performer this year.

當MSCI上週決定把中國A股納入其指數時，澳大利亞並非許多人最先關注的市場——但可以說它是受影響最大的市場之一。這是因爲，在投資者通常將東京作爲一個單獨類別的廣大亞太地區，上海和深圳之所得，將是悉尼之所失——後者已是今年該地區表現最差的市場。

The geographic centre of Asian market capitalisation, excluding Japan, has been shifting northward for decades. From a point just east of Darwin in 1975, as calculated by Credit Suisse, the midpoint is currently over the South China Sea and should reach Hong Kong by 2030 as mainland markets increase their share of regional benchmarks. By that point, Australia’s weighting in those same indices will have halved to 6 per cent, reckon the bank’s analysts.

亞洲市場（除日本外）市值的地理中心幾十年來一直在向北移動。根據瑞信(Credit Suisse)的計算，1975年中心點位於達爾文市(Darwin)以東一點點，如今位於南中國海，而且隨着中國內地股市在地區基準中權重的增加，到2030年中心點應會移至香港。瑞信的分析師估計，屆時，澳大利亞在這些指數中的權重將減半至6%。

That long-term gloom is not the reason for this year’s underperformance. The ASX 200 has added just 1 per cent compared with gains of 17 per cent or more for Hong Kong, Seoul and Mumbai. Aussie business optimism is strong but consumer activity is not. Growth of 1.7 per cent is the country’s slowest since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and earnings downgrades have begun once more to outnumber upwards revisions just as profits elsewhere in the region are picking up noticeably. Earnings are forecast to rise about 11 per cent in Australia this year — but 19 per cent in the region as a whole.

這種長期的低迷並非澳大利亞股市今年表現欠佳的原因。澳大利亞的ASX 200指數僅上漲1%，而香港、首爾、孟買股市的漲幅都達到了17%或更高。澳大利亞企業的樂觀情緒很強，但消費者活動並非如此。1.7%的增速是澳大利亞自全球金融危機爆發以來的最慢增長，且盈利能力下滑幅度再次開始超過上修幅度，而此時正值該地區其他國家的盈利能力顯著回升。預計澳大利亞企業今年的盈利將增長約11%，而整個亞太地區爲19%。

For the past decade, Australia’s consecutive booms in mining, housing and, most recently, infrastructure spending have helped Sydney-listed stocks keep up with their faster-growing emerging market rivals. Now it needs another catalyst — and it is struggling. The Australian dollar, whose weakness flattered international returns for the past few years, appears to have found a bottom. Soft commodity prices and a heavy new bank levy are hurting the heavily-weighted resources and financial sectors.

過去10年，澳大利亞在礦業、住房以及最近的基礎設施支出領域接連的繁榮，幫助悉尼上市的股票與增長較快的新興市場競爭對手齊頭並進。如今，澳大利亞需要新的動力——而它正在掙扎。雖然過去幾年澳元走軟美化了國際回報，但澳元似乎已經觸底。疲軟的大宗商品價格和沉重的新銀行稅正在危及權重較大的資源和金融部門。

In spite of their doldrums, Australian stocks are still trading on 15 times expected earnings, versus 13 times for the region. Downsizing Australia’s regional weighting will be slow and gradual, but it is yet another reason for international investors to think carefully about where they place their bets in Asia Pacific.

儘管處於低迷期，但澳大利亞股市的預期市盈率仍爲15倍，而整個亞太地區爲13倍。縮減澳大利亞在亞太地區的權重將是一個緩慢、漸進的過程，但這是國際投資者仔細考慮在亞太地區押注何處的又一個原因。