美國無暇他顧 世界會發生什麼
The assault on the Iraqi city of Mosul that began this week underlines the fact that the next three months will be a perilous period in international politics.
本週開始的對伊拉克城市摩蘇爾(Mosul)的攻擊突出表明，未來三個月將是國際政治的一段危險時期。
Fighting is intensifying in the Middle East.
中東戰火正越燒越旺。
Tensions are rising between Russia and the west.
俄羅斯和西方之間的緊張關係日益加劇。
And relations between China and its Asian neighbours are getting edgier.
中國與亞洲鄰國之間的關係越來越緊張。
All this is happening while the US is diverted by the Trump-Clinton melodrama and the transition to a new president.
在發生這一切的同時，特朗普與希拉里的戲劇性選戰和向新總統的過渡分散了美國的注意力。
For Russia and China — two countries that are openly unhappy with the US-dominated world order — a distracted America will look like an opportunity.
對於俄羅斯和中國這兩個公開對美國主導的世界秩序表示不滿的國家而言，一個分心的美國看起來將像是一個機會。
Both Moscow and Beijing regard Hillary Clinton with suspicion and believe that her probable arrival in the Oval Office would herald a more hawkish US foreign policy.
俄羅斯和中國都對希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)懷有疑心，認爲她入主白宮橢圓形辦公室(Oval Office)將預示美國會採取更強硬的外交政策，而希拉里入主白宮是大概率事件。
They may be tempted to act swiftly, before she has a chance to settle into the White House.
中俄或許會想要趕在希拉里有機會成爲白宮主人之前，迅速採取行動。
A temporarily preoccupied America might not matter much in normal times.
在正常時期，一個暫時心不在焉的美國或許也關係不大。
But big and dangerous decisions are looming.
但是，重大而危險的決定近在咫尺。
In the Middle East, the bombardment of Aleppo by Russian and Syrian government forces has led to a near-breakdown in relations between Moscow and the west.
在中東，俄羅斯和敘利亞政府部隊對阿勒頗(Aleppo)的轟炸，導致俄羅斯與西方的關係幾近一拍兩散。
Without a common diplomatic project to hold them together, the two sides may slide into outright confrontation in Syria.
若是沒有一個共同的外交安排把雙方聚攏在一起，它們或許會在敘利亞陷入公然對抗。
Further sanctions on Russia are in the offing and the west’s military options are also being reviewed.
西方正醞釀對俄羅斯施加進一步的制裁，也在評估軍事選項。
President Vladimir Putin may calculate that a US administration that has refused to take military action against the Assad regime since 2011 is unlikely to reverse course in President Barack Obama’s last few months in office.
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)或許是這樣打算的：自2011年以來一直拒絕對敘利亞阿薩德(Assad)政權採取軍事行動的奧巴馬政府，不太可能在奧巴馬的最後幾個月任期裏改弦易張。
But if the Russians push too hard, they could miscalculate and provoke an American reaction.
但是，如果俄羅斯人做得太過火，他們可能會失算，激得美國做出反應。
That is particularly the case because the Obama administration is angered by Russian cyber warfare, aimed at influencing the US presidential election.
眼下尤其如此，因爲俄羅斯方面旨在影響美國總統選舉的網絡戰惹惱了奧巴馬政府。
Joe Biden, the vice-president, has already signalled that America intends to retaliate in cyber space.
美國副總統喬•拜登(Joe Biden)表示，美國打算在網絡空間對俄羅斯進行報復。
Even without a worsening of the situation in Syria, fighting in the Middle East will intensify in the coming weeks.
即便敘利亞局勢並未惡化，中東戰事在未來幾周裏也將加劇。
The Iraqi government, backed by the air power of a US-led coalition, has begun a major push to retake Mosul from Isis.
在美國領導的聯軍空中力量的支持下，伊拉克政府已發動了旨在從伊斯蘭國(ISIS)手中奪回摩蘇爾的大規模攻勢。
With one eye on his legacy and another on the presidential election, Mr Obama would be delighted to notch up a significant victory against Isis in the coming weeks.
奧巴馬一隻眼睛盯着自己的遺產，另一個眼睛盯着總統選舉，如果未來幾周裏能收穫一場對ISIS的重大勝利，他將非常高興。
Going on the offensive in Iraq, rather than Syria, is also more attractive for America because there is less chance of an accidental clash with the Russians.
在伊拉克而不是敘利亞的境內發動攻勢，對美國也更具吸引力，因爲與俄羅斯人發生意外衝突的機會較小。
A successful US-backed assault on Mosul could also counteract the impression of American weakness in the Middle East.
在美國支持下攻擊摩蘇爾的成功，可能也會抵消美國在中東的軟弱印象。
But the comparisons between Mosul and Aleppo are also a warning.
但摩蘇爾與阿勒頗之間的對比也是一個警告。
There are more than 1m civilians living in and around Mosul who could be caught up in the fighting.
摩蘇爾城內及其周圍居住的的平民超過100萬，他們可能被困於戰火之中。
The battle for the city could also lead to a clash between the Turkish and Iraqi governments, both nominally American allies.
攻打摩蘇爾的戰鬥也可能導致土耳其和伊拉克政府之間發生衝突——名義上它們都是美國的盟國。
The Russians may also feel that the next few months offer an opportunity in eastern Europe and Ukraine, with the EU distracted by Brexit and the run-up to the French presidential election.
俄羅斯人或許還認爲，眼下歐盟(EU)一門心思都在英國脫歐和法國即將舉行的總統選舉上，未來幾個月在東歐和烏克蘭也存在一個機會。
Moscow had hoped that, by now, the EU would have eased the economic sanctions that were imposed in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
莫斯科方面原本希望，到現在這時候，歐盟應該已經放鬆了於俄羅斯2014年吞併克里米亞之後對其施加的經濟制裁。
Instead, the west has collectively strengthened its stance by moving more Nato troops into the Baltic states that border Russia.
結果西方反而集體強化了立場，將更多北約(Nato)部隊派駐到與俄羅斯相鄰的波羅的海國家。
In response, the Russians have moved nuclear-capable missiles into Kaliningrad, a Russian territorial enclave that lies between Lithuania and Poland.
作爲迴應，俄羅斯人已把可搭載核彈頭的導彈部署到加里寧格勒(Kaliningrad)——這是一塊位於立陶宛和波蘭之間的俄羅斯飛地。
Russia’s nuclear posturing is clearly intended to unnerve but it is dangerous for all that.
俄羅斯的核態勢顯然是讓想西方緊張，但儘管如此，這種態勢也是危險的。
The Chinese government is more controlled and ambiguous in its belligerence than Moscow.
跟俄羅斯相比，中國政府的好戰性更剋制、更難以捉摸。
Nevertheless, Beijing’s actions in recent months have set the nerves of its neighbours on edge.
然而，北京最近幾個月的行動令其鄰國感到緊張。
The Chinese were enraged by an international tribunal’s ruling in July that Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are largely specious.
今年7月，一家國際仲裁庭做出裁決，認爲中國對南中國海(South China Sea)的領土主張很大程度上站不住腳，這激怒了中國。
Since then the official media in Beijing has become ever more ferocious, berating and threatening otherwise friendly countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Australia for following America’s line on security issues.
自那時以來，中國的官方媒體措辭變得越來越激烈，譴責和威脅新加坡、韓國和澳大利亞等原本友好的國家在安全問題上追隨美國的立場。
The Japanese say that they have seen a recent increase in Chinese activity in the disputed waters of the East China Sea.
日本人表示，他們看到中國近來在東中國海(East China Sea)爭議水域中的活動有所增加。
Meanwhile nations in Southeast Asia are watching nervously to see if China follows up its island-building in the South China Sea with further actions.
同時，東南亞國家正在緊張地觀察，繼在南中國海造島之後，中國是否還會接着採取進一步行動。
However the fact that the Philippines, which brought the legal action against China, is now tilting towards Beijing under Rodrigo Duterte, its new, anti-American president, may reduce China’s incentives to take military chances in the Pacific.
然而，曾對中國採取法律行動的菲律賓人，如今在反美的新總統羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)的領導下正倒向北京，這一事實或許會降低中國在太平洋地區冒險採取軍事行動的動機。
Why risk confrontation when politics and diplomacy are handing such a big prize to Beijing?
當政治和外交手段正在向北京方面奉上一份大禮時，何必還去冒對抗的風險呢？
As Mr Obama prepares to pack his bags in the White House, he may look back wryly at the foreign-policy goals that he set eight years ago.
當奧巴馬準備收拾行李離開白宮時，他可能會皺着眉頭回顧自己在8年前設定的外交政策目標。
There was to be a reset that would lead to better relations with Russia.
本應有一次將帶來美俄關係改善的重置。
There would also be a new and closer working relationship with China.
還本應與中國形成新的、更緊密的合作關係。
And there would be an end to war in the Middle East.
中東戰事本應結束。
None of those policies has come to fruition.
這些政策目標沒有一條實現了。
Instead, Mr Obama will be fortunate if he can negotiate his last three months in office without presiding over a major international crisis.
相反，奧巴馬如果能夠順利度過最後3個月任期、而無需主持一場重大國際危機，他就算走運的了。
