大摩分析 中國智能手機滯銷 將迎iPhone 6及4G熱潮

Katy Huberty is back from a trip abroad with fresh intelligence from the world's most important smartphone market: China.

摩根士丹利的分析師凱蒂o休伯蒂剛從中國轉了一圈，她帶來了來自全球最重要的智能手機市場的新鮮情報。

In a series of three "takeaway" notes to clients, she reports:

在給客戶的一系列三份報告中，休伯蒂稱目前中國市場：

Inventory pile-up: The Chinese government is saying demand for new smartphones fell 9% year-over-year last quarter even as IDC reports shipments of phones into the region rising 37%. Huberty says the Chinese carriers are spending less on marketing and subsidies as they wait for the government to issue 4G licenses.

庫存堆積：中國政府稱上季度國內新智能手機的需求同比下降了9％，而IDC報告稱，中國地區的手機出貨量上升了37％。休伯蒂表示，中國運營商正削減市場營銷費用和手機補貼，等待政府發放4G牌照。

iPhone 6 build-up: Most of the Apple subcontractors she spoke to expect demand for the new iPhone 6 by December will be 20% better than demand was for last year's big Christmas seller, the iPhone 5S. Huberty was only expecting 12% growth.

iPhone 6蓄勢待發：休伯蒂接觸到的大部分蘋果分包商，都預期到12月，iPhone 6的需求將比去年聖誕期間的熱賣機型iPhone 5S高出20％。休伯蒂個人預計需求漲幅爲12％。

Big-screen boost: Meanwhile, an April survey for Morgan Stanley by AlphaWise suggests that a larger-screen iPhone -- as the iPhone 6 is rumored to be -- could buy Apple 11 points of market share in the U.S.

大屏效應：同時，AlphaWise四月爲摩根士丹利進行的一項調查表明，大屏iPhone——傳聞iPhone 6將是一款大屏手機——將幫助蘋果在美國多獲得11％的市場份額。

Buyer beware: This Morgan Stanley prediction from last summer didn't quite pan out:

買家請注意了：去年夏天摩根士丹利進行的預測不太準：

Below: How Huberty's findings have changed her smartphone model.

下圖：休伯蒂根據上述發現調整了其智能手機模型。