緊縮政策產生負面影響 中國“地王”岌岌可危

The days of Chinese developers snatching up premium properties with record-breaking offers are coming to an end as cooling measures bite and sale prices are squeezed, ending the reign of a handful of "land kings" in the world's second-largest economy.

First coined during the stimulus-fuelled 2009 real-estate boom, the Chinese expression is used to describe developers - at the time mostly state-owned companies - willing to pay whatever it took to secure land banks.

A string of records were broken at auctions late last year, when private-sector real-estate companies increased their presence in the market.

But while the cost of land in premier markets, or first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, soared 135 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, property sale prices inched up just 15 percent, according to BNP Paribas.

The already high costs and the prospect of slowing property sales mean the days of records being set at land auctions are coming to a close, analysts say.

Signs of a slowdown, from weaker home price data to developers cutting prices, have already rattled financial markets in recent weeks. Real estate investment accounts for 15 percent of China's gross domestic product.

"Developers will be more rational when bidding for land this year, unlike the huge number of land kings we saw the year before," said Lin Bo, vice-research director at real estate information provider CRIC. "Considering the risks and costs, major developers are not willing to pay for premium land now."

Privately-owned China Vanke, the country's largest listed developer, said on Thursday that one of its operating strategies was to not be a land king.

"When there's a lot of people after a piece of land, we'd rather miss the land than buy wrong," said Tan Huajie, secretary of the board.

China Vanke has won 13 pieces of "premium land" in the country since 2008, making it the No 2 "land king" after state-backed Poly Real Estate Group, according to CRIC.

GOVERNMENT IMPACT

Any slump in prices paid at land auctions could also have an impact on China's indebted local governments, for whom such sales form a major portion of revenue. An average of 24 percent of local government revenue came from land sales in 2013, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance.

Chinese data last month showed that sale price rises eased for the first time in 14 months in January, in a sign that the government's more than four-year campaign to rein in property prices to avoid a bubble could finally be starting to bite.

This comes after a string of record-breaking prices being paid at government land auctions.

In September, Sunac China Holdings beat seven rivals to win a residential land plot near Beijing's eastern third ring road for 2.1 billion yuan ($342 million), the ceiling price set by local authorities.

A day later, Hong Kong-listed Sun Hung Kai Properties, Asia's most valuable developer, won a commercial plot in Shanghai for 21.8 billion yuan, a record high in the financial hub.

In a further sign that the market may be losing steam, some smaller developers have already said they won't compete for sites until market conditions improve. Private developers Yuzhou Properties and CIFI Holdings last month said land prices have become too expensive.

"When we see two signs emerge - government easing tightening and lower prices in the land market - then we will increase our land bank in Hangzhou again," CIFI Chairman Lin Zhong told a press conference last Wednesday, referring to a city about an hour from Shanghai.

Among the 10 developers that have won the most premium land since 2008, six are state-backed companies, according to CRIC. Topping the list are Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Land and Greenland Group.

Nearly 20 percent of property sold to land kings during that period remains unbuilt, while three percent of the deals were forfeited by developers due to financing issues after they paid deposits, it said.

With prices in first-tier cities expected to slow to single digit growth or stay flat this year, and private developers increasingly entering the market, the days of state-owned property companies bidding up for premium sites are expected to draw to a close.

"Fewer SOEs (state-owned enterprises) being land kings is in line with the central government's decision to let markets play a decisive role in the economy; they hope to lower the SOE's contribution to the economy and encourage private investment in construction," said Frank Chen, executive director of CBRE Research China.由於冷卻性政策的施行和對銷售價格的打壓，中國房地產商以破記錄的出價爭奪“黃金地”的日子即將接近尾聲，結束了少數“地王”在中國全世界第二大經濟實體的統治。

2009年政策刺激的作用下，房地產產業獲得了大繁榮，用中國的話來形容當時的房地產商（當時大部分都是國有企業）就是，只要能弄到“土地銀行”付出什麼代價都可以。

越來越多的私人房地產公司開始在房地產業展露頭角，去年年底打破了一系列的記錄。

據巴黎銀行稱當超級市場的土地成本不斷在增加，一些像北京和上海一樣的一線城市的房價較前一年第三季度增長了高達135%，房地產的銷售價格只是微升了15%。

專家分析現有的高成本和房地產銷售增長速度的放緩意味着房地產拍賣記錄一直被打破的日子即將結束。

房地產經濟放緩的跡象，從保障性住房的價格數據到房地產商大削價，在最近幾個星期內引起了金融市場的騷亂。房地產投資佔了中國國內生產總值的15%。

中國房地產信息提供商CRIC市場調研副總監林勃說道：“今年房地產開發商競標土地時會更理智，不會像去年一樣看到那麼多的“地王”，考慮到風險和成本，大多數的開發商都不願意競標“黃金土地”。”

中國私企房地產開發商萬科，中國最大的上市房地產開發商，在星期三稱其經營策略就是不要成爲“地王”。

董事會的祕書譚華傑稱：“當很多人追逐一塊地的時候，我們寧願錯過也不願買錯。”

據CRIC數據顯示從2008年開始，萬科集團已經買了13塊“黃金土地”，成爲中國二號“地王”，僅次於有國家支撐的保利地產集團。

政府的影響

土地拍賣價格的絲毫下降也會對中國負債的政府造成巨大的影響，因土地的銷售構成了政府稅收的很大一部分。根據財政部數據顯示，2013年地方政府的稅收收入平均24%都是來源於土地銷售。

上個月的數據顯示於一月份土地銷售價格十四個月來首次放緩了增長速度，表明政府四年多來控制房地產價格作出的努力開始奏效，以防泡沫經濟的出現。

這些都發生在政府土地拍賣中，一系列的破紀錄價格拍賣後。

九月，中國融創控股集團以21億人民幣的價格（當地政府定的最高價格）擊敗了七個競爭對手獲得了北京三環路附近的住宅地。

一天後，香港上市公司新鴻基地產集團，亞洲最有競爭優勢的房地產開發商，以218億人民幣的價格拿下了上海的一片商業用地，破金融中心的最高紀錄。

更多的跡象顯示房地產市場將會失去活力，一些小房地產開發商已經聲明直到市場狀況改善他們纔會競標土地。私人房地產開發商禹州地產和旭輝控股集團上個月都表示土地價格已經變得太貴了。

旭輝的董事長林忠上週三在一個新聞發佈會上稱當我們看到兩種趨勢時——政府放鬆緊縮政策和降低房地產市場的價格，我們纔會再在杭州擴大我們的地產——指據上海一個小時路程的一個城市。

據CRIC數據顯示，在從2008年開始手中有最多的“黃金土地”的10個房地產開發商中，6個都是國家支持。位居前三的分別爲保利集團、海外發展有限公司和格林集團。

據稱接近20%在房地產繁榮期間賣給地王的土地都還未建設，而由於他們付款後到來的經濟危機，3%的交易被房地產開發商沒收。

今年一線城市的土地價格有望持平或者只是個位數微升，再加上私人房地產開發商進入市場的數目的增加，國有房地產公司競標“黃金土地”的日子有望接近尾聲。

世邦魏理仕研究公司的執行董事長陳右升說道：“隨着中央政府讓市場在經濟中起主導作用的政策的施行，越來越少的國有地產公司成爲“地王”，政府希望能夠削減國有地產公司對中國經濟的貢獻，並鼓勵增加私人在建設中的投資。”