伊拉克危機對中國能源供應影響不大

China has found itself an unwitting participant in the drama unfolding in Iraq -- though its economy may be less vulnerable than its neighbors' to the crisis there.

中國已被動地成爲了伊拉克當前危機的參與者，不過與一些亞洲鄰國相比，中國經濟受伊拉克危機的影響可能相對較小。

As the Obama administration works to build support for action against an insurgency by militant Sunni Islamists , China has said it will move some of its 10,000 citizens in Iraq away from areas it considers dangerous.

在奧巴馬(Obama)政府爲伊拉克打擊遜尼派穆斯林武裝分子的行動提供支持之際，中國政府表示將幫助部分處於安全形勢相對嚴峻地區的中資公司人員撤至安全區域。目前在伊拉克的中國公民有1萬人左右。

China's investments in Iraqi oil production grew so dramatically in the aftermath of the U.S.-led 2003 invasion that politicians have quipped that China, not the U.S., won the war against former dictator Saddam Hussein.

在2003年由美國牽頭的聯合部隊入侵伊拉克後，中國在伊拉克石油生產領域的投資大幅增長，以至於政客們諷刺稱，打贏推翻伊拉克前獨裁者薩達姆(Saddam Hussein)戰爭的是中國，而不是美國。

Chinese state-owned companies have invested $10 billion in Iraq, according to the American Enterprise Institute. China's imports of Iraqi crude have doubled since 2009, according to Chinese customs data.

根據美國企業研究會(American Enterprise Institute)的數據，中國國有企業在伊拉克的投資額達到100億美元。中國海關的數據也顯示，自2009年以來，中國從伊拉克進口的原油量已增長一倍。

But Iraqi oil still represents just a small percentage of China's oil imports, and a minuscule portion of its overall energy supply. The greater risk appears to be not from a disruption of supplies from Iraq but rather that events there push global oil prices higher, raising China's overall import bill and the cost of subsidizing domestic fuel.

但從伊拉克進口的石油佔中國石油進口量的比例依然很小，在中國能源供應總量中的佔比更小。伊拉克危機給中國帶來的風險似乎並非來自伊拉克石油供應的中斷，而是來自當地推高全球油價的事件，全球油價上漲會推高中國整體石油進口成本以及補貼國內成品油的成本。

Prices for Brent crude have climbed more than 5% this month to above $115 per barrel, their highest level since last September.

6月份以來，布倫特原油期貨價格已累計上漲5%以上，至每桶115美元上方，創去年9月份以來的最高水平。

The risk posed by higher global oil prices is even higher for China's Asian neighbors -- especially Japan, India and Indonesia -- which are more reliant on imported crude from the Middle East.

全球油價上漲給中國在亞洲的鄰國帶來的風險更大，尤其是日本、印度和印尼，這些國家更加依賴從中東進口的原油。

China's investments include China National Petroleum Corp.'s $5.6 billion purchase of a stake in the vast Rumaila field in southern Iraq in 2009. That same year, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. gained control of fields in Iraq's northern Kurdish region with its $7.2 billion purchase of Swiss company Addax Petroleum.

中國在伊拉克的投資包括中國石油天然氣集團公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)在2009年斥資56億美元收購的伊拉克南部魯邁拉(Rumaila)油田的部分股權。另外，中國石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Co., SNP, 簡稱：中國石化)也在同一年斥資72億美元收購了瑞士公司Addax Petroleum，從而取得了伊拉克北部庫爾德地區部分油田的控制權。

According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 13% of Iraq's oil exports went to China in 2012.

美國能源情報署(Energy Information Administration)的最新數據顯示，2012年，出口至中國的石油佔在伊拉克石油出口總量的13%。

But China's exposure to Iraq is still relatively small, and its investments there represent only about 2% of China's total global investment. Customs data show that imports of Iraqi crude still comprise just one-tenth of China's total oil imports, and less than 1% of the country's overall energy needs.

但中國對伊拉克的敞口仍相對較小，在伊拉克的投資僅佔其全球總投資額的2%。海關數據顯示，從伊拉克進口的原油仍僅佔中國原油進口總量的十分之一，在中國能源總需求中的佔比也不到1%。

That's because China remains heavily reliant on domestic, heavily polluting coal -- the very problem the investments in Iraq aimed to address. Coal accounted for more than two-thirds of China's overall energy mix as of 2011, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency, or IEA.

這是因爲，中國仍嚴重依賴國內的高污染煤炭，而這正是伊拉克投資旨在解決的問題。根據國際能源署(International Energy Agency, 簡稱IEA)最新數據，截至2011年，煤炭在中國能源結構中所佔比例超過三分之二。

Other Asian nations have much greater exposure to international oil markets. While China imports 14% of its energy, Japan imported more than 90% in 2011, according to the IEA, relying on Saudi Arabian crude for nearly two-fifths of its energy needs. Japan doesn't import much (if any) Iraqi oil, but if Iraq worries continue to push up global oil prices it would raise Japan's energy bill and further erode its current-account surplus.

其他亞洲國家對國際石油市場的敞口要大得多。根據IEA的數據，2011年中國能源進口比例爲14%，而日本則超過90%，日本能源需求的五分之二都依賴從沙特進口的原油滿足。日本並不從伊拉克大量進口原油（如果有進口的話），但如果伊拉克局勢繼續推高全球石油價格的話，日本的能源進口支出就會增加，該國經常項目盈餘也會受到進一步侵蝕。

India is arguably even more vulnerable: It takes 19% of Iraq's crude exports, representing 3% of India's overall energy needs. Worse, higher oil prices stand to aggravate India's stubborn inflation and widen its current-account deficit and would raise the cost of fuel subsidies just as the government is trying to trim its budget deficit.

印度應該會更容易受到打擊：印度吸納伊拉克19%的原油出口，佔印度總能源需求的3%。更糟糕的是，石油價格上漲會加劇印度居高不下的通貨膨脹，擴大經常項目逆差，並將在政府試圖縮減預算赤字之際提高燃油補貼的成本。

The most vulnerable nation in Asia, however, may be one that until 2008 was a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- Indonesia. The archipelago became a net oil importer in 2006 thanks to dwindling domestic production and weak investment in new production; imported crude now accounts for roughly 9% of Indonesia's total energy use. Like India, Indonesia would likely see its current account deficit and subsidy costs widen with higher oil prices, and inflation spike.

但最容易受到打擊的可能是直到2008年之前還是石油輸出國組織(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)成員國的印度尼西亞。由於國內石油產量減少以及新產能投資疲軟，印尼已在2006年成爲石油淨進口國，目前該國原油進口量佔其能源總使用量的約9%。和印度一樣，印尼的經常項目逆差和補貼成本可能也將隨着油價上漲而增加，通脹也會攀升。

Despite its large investments in Iraq, then, China may find that -- compared to its neighbors at least -- it's getting off easily.

所以說，儘管中國在伊拉克有大筆投資，但中國最終可能會發現，至少跟鄰國相比，本國受到的衝擊還不算太大。