量化寬鬆的負面影響開始顯現
Ahead of a recent appearance in Hong Kong, one minder for Ben Bernanke suggested that the former chairman of the Federal Reserve should be asked not about the cost of quantitative easing, but about the impact of the policy instead.
在本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)近期現身香港前，一位關注他的人士曾表示，人們應當詢問這位美聯儲(Fed)前主席的，不是量化寬鬆(QE)的成本，而是該政策的影響。
For years, central bankers have been reluctant to suggest unconventional monetary policies even had costs. But while developed markets plunge deeper into uncharted financial territory because of central bank actions, the drawbacks of such policies are becoming apparent.
多年來，央行官員們一直不願承認，非常規貨幣政策也是有成本的。但是，隨着發達市場由於央行措施而更深地跌入未知的金融境地，這些政策的缺點開始顯露出來。
The negative effects will become more obvious. This will occur as asset price inflation — the main consequence of central bank policies — goes into reverse, robbing financial engineering of its efficacy and flattening the yield curve.
負面影響將表現得更爲明顯。這是因爲，隨着資產價格膨脹——央行政策的主要後果——發生逆轉，資本運作將失去效果，收益率曲線將變得平緩。
Suddenly, the success of central bankers in lifting financial asset prices through unconventional monetary policies seems to be coming to an end. Those policies did little for the real economy on the way up, because most companies engaged more in share buybacks than in investing in capacity, and economic growth in the US, for example, never broke through a range of 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent, falling under 1 per cent in the fourth quarter. The impact on the real economy on the way down will be greater.
突然間，央行官員通過非常規貨幣政策推高金融資產價格的成功似乎將走到終點。那些政策對促進實體經濟上行作用甚微，因爲多數公司主要是用錢來回購股票，而不是投資於產能。比如，在美國，經濟增長率向上從未突破2%至2.5%的區間，去年第四季度還降至不足1%。非常規貨幣政策對實體經濟下行的影響將更大。
The Bank of Japan’s use of negative rates, dovish coos from New York Fed chairman William Dudley, and statements from Mr Bernanke’s successor, Janet Yellen, last week spooked markets rather than soothed them.
上週，日本央行(BoJ)祭出的負利率政策，紐約聯儲(New York Fed)主席比爾達德利(Bill Dudley)的鴿派言論，加上伯南克繼任者珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)的表態，都讓市場感到緊張而不是安心。
The extent to which QE is losing effectiveness can be seen best in the drop in private equity firms’ share prices. In the past few years, it is possible to argue that no single group of investors has been as big a beneficiary of QE as these large alternative investment companies. They could finance deals with cheap debt, sell down holdings of portfolio companies in stock markets which kept rising, and mark up the value of their privately held portfolio companies on the basis of their listed peers. Now those perfect conditions are going into reverse.
私人股本公司的股價下跌，最能讓人看出量化寬鬆在多大程度上喪失了效果。說起從量化寬鬆中得到的好處，可以說過去幾年裏沒有哪個投資者羣體比這些大型另類投資公司得到的更多。它們可以以廉價的債務爲收購交易提供資金，在不斷上漲的股市中減持投資標的公司的股權，並根據同類上市公司的價值，標高它們私人持有的投資標的公司的估值。如今，這些理想的條件開始發生逆轉。
That’s why last week Apollo Global Management and Carlyle said they were planning some financial engineering by buying back their own shares for the first time. They may be too late. “The share buyback boom has peaked,” noted Christopher Wood, strategist for the CLSA arm of Citic Securities, citing “the dramatic underperformance of the S&P 500 Share Buyback index relative to the S&P 500 itself”. He added: “The stock market has been ignoring the clear evidence of deteriorating margins and profitability, a form of deception encouraged by the share buybacks.”
正因如此，上週阿波羅全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management)和凱雷(Carlyle)表示，計劃首次運用金融工程來回購自己的股票。它們或許動作太遲了。“股票回購熱潮已經見頂，”中信證券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂證券(CLSA)的策略師克里斯托弗伍德(Christopher Wood)指出。他給出的理由是，“標普500回購指數(S&P 500 Buyback Index)的表現比標普500指數(S&P 500 Index)本身差得多”。他補充稱：“股票市場一直在忽略公司利潤率和盈利能力惡化的明顯證據，這是一種由股票回購助長的欺騙。”
Meanwhile, Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman spent much of his recent earnings call with his investors talking up the dividend yield (11 per cent as of January 28, the day of the call) and value of his firm’s shares. “Right now you’re getting Blackstone on sale,” said the eternal salesman.
與此同時，在最近的一次財報電話會議上，黑石(Blackstone)的蘇世民(Steve Schwarzman)用大量時間向投資者吹噓黑石股票的股息率（截至會議當日的1月28日爲11%）和價值。“現在你們買黑石股票相當於在享受折扣價，”這個總在推銷自己公司的人說。
We are in a world where the yield curve is flattening and there is little demand to borrow other than to engage in financial engineering. Banks’ inability to earn money in that world dominated headlines last week. But it will leave other kinds of financial institutions in even worse shape, especially insurers that sold guaranteed investment contracts. And savers will earn even less on their savings.
在我們當前所處的世界中，收益率曲線正變得平緩，舉債的需求很小，除非是爲了去搞資本運作。上週，充斥媒體頭條的故事都是銀行在這樣一個世界裏不容易賺錢。但是，這個世界將讓其他金融機構處於更艱難的境地，尤其是那些出售擔保投資合同的保險公司。此外，儲戶在銀行賺到的利息還會更少。
In an election year in the US, it seems unlikely the Fed will return to its previous pattern of purchasing more securities, given the fact that such policies are partly responsible for deepening income inequality. It is even more risky for the Fed to adopt a negative interest rates policy (NIRP) as so many other developed nations have, given that the impact on huge money market funds is unknown.
在美國大選年，美聯儲看來不太可能回到購買更多證券的老套路上，因爲這樣的政策在一定程度上加劇了收入不平等。美聯儲如果像許多其他發達國家那樣實行負利率政策的話，甚至會帶來更大風險，因爲負利率政策會對龐大的貨幣市場基金產生何種影響還是個未知數。
“The US is not close to considering NIRP,” concluded JPMorgan economists in a report. “However, if recession risks were realised, the need for substantial additional policy support would likely push the Fed towards NIRP.”
“目前美國離考慮負利率政策還很遠，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)經濟學家在一份報告中得出結論。“然而，如果衰退風險變成現實，那麼提供新的實質性政策支持的必要性，很可能會把美聯儲推向負利率政策。”
However, disconcertingly, the Fed’s latest stress test includes just that scenario,according to Mr Wood.
然而，伍德指出，令人不安的是，美聯儲最近的壓力測試恰恰包括了上述情景。
Meanwhile, JPMorgan last week predicted that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to ease more. It is an odd world where the failure of unconventional monetary policies leads to more, rather than less, of the same. There will be worse to come.
同時，摩根大通上週預測，日本央行和歐洲央行(ECB)可能會加大寬鬆力度。這是一個奇怪的世界，非常規貨幣政策的失敗反而導致這種政策加碼而不是減碼。未來的局面將會更糟糕。
