歐元區量化寬鬆能否奏效

The economic equivalent of “famous for being famous” is the idea of a rise in confidence because of a policy whose main transmission channel is confidence. The discussion about quantitative easing is precisely this. It is as self-referential as the statement that it works because it works.

“因爲出名，所以出名”在經濟學上相當於以信心爲主要傳導通道的政策所帶來的信心增強。關於量化寬鬆的討論正是如此。它就好比說“因爲奏效，所以奏效”，是一種自我強化。

An example of such circularity was the forecast by the European Central Bank this month, which predicts a solid economic recovery in 2016 and 2017 on the grounds that QE would work.

這種循環論證的一個例子，是歐洲央行(ECB)本月發佈的預測報告：在量化寬鬆奏效的基礎之上，2016年和2017年經濟將穩定復甦。

The forecast even suggested that inflation would rise close to the central bank’s target of just under 2 per cent within the next two years. Since the declared rationale for the ECB’s purchase of sovereign bonds was to raise inflation expectations, one might conclude that the programme was already working. What makes this even more amazing is that the ECB had not bought a single bond at the time. The only thing that changed is that everybody was suddenly more confident — because everybody else was.

歐洲央行還在預測報告中指出，在接下來的兩年中，通脹率將上升至接近其設定的略低於2%的目標。由於歐洲央行宣稱購買主權債券的出發點是提高通脹預期，人們可能會得出該計劃已經開始奏效的結論。而更令人驚訝的是，歐洲央行那時還未曾購買任何債券。唯一發生的改變是，每個人突然變得更有信心了——原因是其他人都變得更有信心了。

Back in the real economy, this is what really happened: as the world’s largest net importer of oil and gas, the eurozone economy enjoyed a windfall from a falling oil price — an effect that was immediate and large, but prone to dissipating quickly. Think of it as a lottery win.

回到實體經濟當中，真相是這樣的：作爲全球最大的石油和天然氣淨進口地區，歐元區經濟享受了油價下跌帶來的意外橫財——油價下跌的效果立竿見影、範圍廣但又容易迅速消散，就像彩票中獎一樣。

The second factual change has been the fall in the euro’s exchange rate. It is debatable to what extent this is due to QE. In any case, the effect is sizeable but not as big as widely suggested. What matters for the real economy is not the nominal exchange rate, but the currency’s trade-weighted real exchange rate. This fell by about 10 per cent [TRADE-WEIGHTED FELL? IF SO A 10PC FALL IS NOT BAD, NO?]between February 2014 and February 2015, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The exchange rate matters less for the eurozone than for most countries as it is a relatively closed economy. It largely trades with itself.

第二個確鑿的改變是歐元匯率的下跌。量化寬鬆在其中起了多大作用還有待商榷。不管怎樣，量化寬鬆的確起到了很大的影響，但並不如人們普遍認爲得那麼大。對實體經濟來說，重要的不是名義匯率，而是貨幣的貿易加權實際匯率。根據國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據，從2014年2月到2015年2月間，歐元貿易加權實際匯率下跌了約10%。對於歐元區來說，匯率並不像對大多數國家那麼重要，因爲歐元區是一個相對封閉的經濟體，貿易基本上是在內部進行的。

A third positive change, though relatively minor so far, has been a very slow improvement in bank lending. And finally, fiscal policy is still tight[DITTO], though marginally less so than a year ago. A combination of all of those [ALL OF THESE FACTORS OR JUST THE LAST TWO?]has temporarily pushed the growth rate up to about an annualised 1.5 per cent. But remember, this was due to the equivalent to a lottery win. You have to win every year to repeat this unless something real happens that changes the ­trajectory of your growth performance.

第三個積極的改變是銀行信貸狀況極爲緩慢的好轉，儘管目前來看這種影響相對較小。最後，財政政策依然緊縮，儘管與1年前相比略有寬鬆。以上所有因素結合在一起，才暫時將歐元區增長年率推高到大約1.5%的水平。但是別忘了，這源於等同於彩票中獎的事件。你必須每年都中獎才能再現這種增長，除非有一些切實的事情改變了增長表現的軌跡。

Could QE deliver something real? In the US, one of the most important channels through which QE worked was the mortgage finance market. It helped revive the housing market — yet even there, it did not have a very big impact on inflation. [ EXPLAIN WHY THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A GOAL?]

量化寬鬆能帶來切實的改變嗎？在美國，量化寬鬆生效的最重要通道之一是抵押貸款融資市場。它曾幫助促進了房地產市場的復甦——然而即便在美國，量化寬鬆對通脹也並無太大影響。

In the main eurozone countries the system of mortgage finance is completely different. Nor will QE lower the funding costs for the corporate sector where traditional banking remains dominant. Also, the programme is small. The Irish economist Karl Whelan concluded that the ECB will end up buying only 6 per cent of the stock of outstanding eurozone sovereign debt. [COMPARED WITH XXX]The UK programme was between four and five times larger, relative to the size of the stock of government debt. One reason the ECB’s bond purchase programme is so small is that bond prices are already high.

在主要的歐元區國家，抵押貸款融資體系與美國完全不同。而在傳統銀行體系佔據主導地位的企業部門，量化寬鬆也不會降低它們的融資成本。此外，歐洲量化寬鬆計劃的規模很小。愛爾蘭經濟學家卡爾•惠蘭(Karl Whelan)的結論是，歐洲央行最終僅會購買歐元區未償付主權債務存量的6%。以與政府債務存量規模的比率來衡量，英國量化寬鬆計劃的規模要大4到5倍。歐洲央行的債券購買計劃規模如此之小的一個原因是，債券價格已經很高。

The biggest positive impact will be the implicit commitment [???EXPLAIN]to low interest rates for as long as the programme lasts. It would make no sense for a central bank to raise rates for as long as it buys assets, the goal of which after all is to lower market interest rates. The ECB will therefore not raise interest rates until at least September 2016.

最大的積極影響將是在量化寬鬆政策存續期間將利率保持在低位的隱性承諾。只要央行還要購買資產，就沒有理由加息，因爲央行購買資產歸根結底是爲了降低市場利率。因此，至少到2016年9月，歐洲央行都不會加息。

The second is the exchange rate, but it is not clear that this effect will be permanent. The third is what is known as the “portfolio rebalancing” channel — the idea that the people who sell bonds to the ECB will need to put their money elsewhere, such as the real economy.

第二個影響是匯率，但目前還不清楚對匯率的影響能否持續下去。第三個影響是所謂的“資產組合再平衡”通道——這種想法認爲，將債權出售給歐洲央行的人們需要把資金放在別的地方，比如實體經濟。

At this point we are starting to scrape the barrel. Confidence is not an independent channel of its own, but a factor in all economic activity. Beware of any comparisons with the famous commitment in 2012 of ECB president Mario Draghi to support the euro whatever it takes. A large economy is not like a bond market. There is real stuff going on.

至此我們就開始使出最後一招兒了。信心本身並不是一個獨立的通道，而是所有經濟活動中的一個因素。要警惕任何把當前計劃與歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)2012年做出的著名承諾進行比較的想法。當時德拉吉表示要不惜一切代價支撐歐元。大型經濟體不像債券市場。經濟體中運行着實實在在的東西。

Investors will only invest in plant and machinery if they see a rise in demand. Consumers will only consume more if they see their future income and purchasing power rising. Exporters will undoubtedly benefit from the lower exchange rate, but may not invest the gains inside the eurozone. The link between a government buying bonds and a company in Sicily creating local jobs is long, indirect and uncertain.

投資者只有看到需求上升，纔會投資建造工廠和購買機器。消費者只有看到未來收入和購買力上升，纔會更多地消費。出口商無疑會受益於更低的匯率，但他們可能不會將收益投到歐元區內部。從政府購買債券到西西里的一家公司爲當地創造就業，這兩者之間的鏈條很長，並無直接或確定的關聯。

The truth is that we just do not know the impact of QE until we collect evidence of how the policy transmits to the real economy. Until that happens, or until other hard evidence emerges, it would be wise to keep an open mind on QE and treat the economic recovery as a largely statistical phenomenon.

真相是，我們只有收集到量化寬鬆如何傳導到實體經濟中的證據，才能獲知該政策到底有何效果。在此之前，或者有其他確鑿證據出現之前，明智的做法將是對量化寬鬆持開放態度，並且把經濟復甦當做一種主要是統計因素造成的現象。