歐洲央行 量寬難以提振歐元區就業率
One in 10 workers in the eurozone will remain unemployed even after the effects of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme have rippled through the economy, according to ECB projections, highlighting deep scars left by the bloc’s financial and debt crises.
根據歐洲央行(ECB)的預測，即使歐洲央行債券購買計劃的效果擴散到整個歐元區經濟，歐元區每10個勞動者仍有1人失業，凸顯出歐元區金融危機和債務危機遺留下來的深刻創痕。Mario Draghi, ECB president, told the EU parliament yesterday that “growth is gaining momentum” in the eurozone.
歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)昨日告訴歐洲議會，歐元區的“增長正在形成勢頭”。
“The easing of lending conditions is progressing hand in hand with a resurgent demand for credit to finance business investment,” Mr Draghi said. “In the longer-term perspective, this will increase potential output.”
“貸款環境的放鬆，正與以商業投資爲目的的信貸需求的復甦齊頭並進，”德拉吉說，“從較長期的視角來看，這將提高潛在產出。”
But questions remain over how much the recovery will benefit those worst affected by the years of recession and near-stagnation. Joblessness in the area remains at 11.2 per cent. The ECB’s latest forecasts suggest the crisis has been so severe that the jobless rate will stay close to double figures even after the 1.1tn quantitative easing programme is fully implemented. By contrast, the jobless rate in the US stood at 5.5 per cent in February and is set to go below 5 per cent this year. UK unemployment is forecast to fall to 5.3 per cent this year.
但仍然存在一個問題：在多年的經濟衰退和增長几近停滯中受影響最大的人羣，將在多大程度上受益於經濟復甦？目前歐元區的失業率仍爲11.2%。歐洲央行的最新預測表明，危機非常嚴重，以至於完全實施1.1萬億歐元的量化寬鬆計劃後，失業率仍將接近兩位數。相較之下，美國2月的失業率爲5.5%，今年內將跌至5%以下。據預測英國的失業率今年將跌至5.3%。“The bottom line is that it’s extremely disappointing that eurozone policy makers continue to tolerate an unacceptably high and dangerous level of unemployment,” said Jonathan Portes, director of Britain’s National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Estimates published this month show ECB economists believe 9.9 per cent of the labour market will still be without work by the end of 2017 — the point at which the central bank expects the region’s cyclical recovery to be complete.
“最根本的是，歐元區的政策制定者依然容忍高到不可接受的、危險的失業率水平，這極其令人失望，”英國智庫國家經濟社會研究院(National Institute for Economic and Social Research, NIESR)的院長喬納森•波特斯(Jonathan Portes)說。本月發佈的估測表明，歐洲央行的經濟學家們認爲，到2017年底，也就是歐洲央行預期歐元區完成周期性復甦的時候，勞動力市場仍將有9.9%的人失業。Some economist think the ECB’s estimates too gloomy. But many predict that unemployment will remain substantially higher than the 7.2 per cent low seen in early 2008.
一些經濟學家認爲歐洲央行的預測過於消極。但許多人預計，失業率將遠高於2008年初7.2%的低位。“What we have seen in Europe is a deskilling of the labour force because of a protracted period of high unemployment,” said Lucrezia Reichlin, a professor at the London Business School. “I believe in the eurozone’s recovery. But it’s a very modest recovery and that means we are never going to recover a lot of what we have lost in terms of output and employment.”
“我們在歐洲看到的是，曠日持久的高失業率導致勞動力大軍失去技能，”倫敦商學院(London Business School)經濟學教授盧克雷齊婭•賴希林(Lucrezia Reichlin)說，“我相信歐元區的復甦是真實的。但這是一次非常溫和的復甦，這意味着我們無法收復很大一部分失去的產出和就業。”The young have borne the brunt of the crisis, with jobless rates for under-25s in Spain and Greece above 50 per cent.
年輕人受危機的衝擊最大，在西班牙和希臘，25歲以下人羣的失業率超過了50%。
