研究：英國新冠疫情或存在1300多個不同源頭
英國一家機構的研究表明，英國的疫情並非由單一一位“零號病人”引起，而是存在至少1300個不同的源頭。研究還發現，英國最初的新冠肺炎病例大多來自歐洲國家，直接來自中國的不到0.1%。
Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.
一項對新冠病毒基因的大型分析顯示，新冠病毒至少由1300個不同的源頭傳入英國。
The study, by the Covid-19 Genomics UK consortium (Cog-UK), completely quashes the idea that a single "patient zero" started the whole UK outbreak.
由新冠英國基因組學聯盟進行的這項研究，徹底推翻了單一“零號病人”引發英國全部疫情的觀點。
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The analysis also finds China had a negligible impact on cases in the UK.
分析還發現，中國對英國病例的影響微不足道。
Instead those initial cases came mostly from European countries.
相反，英國最初的病例大多來自歐洲國家。
The researchers analysed the genetic code of viral samples taken from more than 20,000 people infected with coronavirus in the UK.
研究人員分析了英國兩萬多名新冠病毒感染者的病毒樣本的基因碼。
Then, like a gigantic version of a paternity test, the geneticists attempted to piece together the virus's massive family tree.
然後，就像一個巨大版本的親子鑑定一樣，遺傳學家試圖拼湊出病毒龐大的族譜。
This was combined with data on international travel to get to the origins of the UK epidemic.
這一數據與國際旅行數據相結合，得出了英國疫情的起源。
They found the UK's coronavirus epidemic did not have one origin - but at least 1,356 origins. On each of those occasions somebody brought the infection into the UK from abroad and the virus began to spread as a result.
他們發現，英國的新冠疫情不只有一個源頭，而是至少有1356個源頭。每次有境外輸入病例時，就會把病毒從國外帶到英國，之後病毒開始傳播。
"The surprising and exciting conclusion is that we found the UK epidemic has resulted from a very large number of separate importations," said Prof Nick Loman, from Cog-UK and the University of Birmingham.
來自該機構和伯明翰大學的尼克·洛曼教授說：“令人驚訝和興奮的結論是，我們發現英國的疫情是由大量單獨的外國輸入病例造成的。”
"It wasn't a patient zero," he added.
“而不是由一位‘零號病人’引發”，他補充說。
The study showed that less than 0.1% of those imported cases came directly from China. Instead the UK's coronavirus epidemic was largely initiated by travel from Italy in late February, Spain in early-to-mid-March and then France in mid-to-late-March.
研究顯示，這些輸入病例中，直接來自中國的不到0.1%。相反，英國新冠疫情主要是由2月下旬從意大利出發、3月上旬至中旬從西班牙出發、3月中下旬從法國出發前來英國的國際旅行者引發的。
"The big surprise for us was how fluid the process was, the rate of and source of virus introduction shifted rapidly over the course of only a few weeks," said Prof Oliver Pybus, from the University of Oxford.
牛津大學的奧立弗·皮布斯教授說：“最讓我們吃驚的是這個過程是多麼的流暢，病毒傳播的速度和來源在短短几周內就迅速發生了變化。”
"This happened later than perhaps we would have expected," added Prof Loman.
洛曼教授補充道：“這可能比我們預期的要晚。”
The study estimates 80% of those initial cases arrived in the country between 28 Feb and 29 March - the time the UK was debating whether to lockdown.
該研究估計，80%的最初病例是在2月28日至3月29日期間抵達英國的，當時英國正在討論是否實施封鎖。
After this point, the number of new imported cases diminished rapidly.
此後，新增輸入病例迅速減少。
The earliest one could be traced back to the beginning of February, but it is possible there were cases even earlier that could not be picked up by the analysis.
最早的病例可以追溯到2月初，但也有可能還有更早的病例無法通過分析發現。
The study also says the controversial football match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, on 11 March, probably had very little impact on bringing the virus into the country.
研究還指出，3月11日利物浦隊和馬德里競技隊之間那場有爭議的足球比賽可能對將病毒帶入英國的影響很小。
An estimated 3,000 fans flew in from Spain to watch the game, but there were 20,000 people flying in from Spain every single day in mid-March.
據估計，有3000名球迷從西班牙乘飛機前來英國觀看比賽，但在3月中旬，每天都有2萬人從西班牙乘飛機前來英國。
"[It] shows that individual events such as football matches likely made a negligible contribution to the number of imports at that time," the study says.
研究指出：“這表明，當時足球比賽等單項賽事對輸入病例的影響可能微乎其微。”
The imported cases each started off a chain of transmission where the virus is passed from one person, to the next, to the next and so on.
每個輸入病例都會開啓一個傳播鏈，病毒接連傳播給一個又一個人。
However, the study shows lockdown has massively disrupted the spread of the virus.
然而研究表明，封鎖措施極大地阻斷了病毒的傳播。
"If there's good news here, these chains of transmission were and are being suppressed and going extinct as a result of social distancing and we continue to see that now," Prof Loman said.
洛曼教授說：“如果有好消息的話，那就是，由於社交隔離的措施，這些傳播鏈持續受到抑制，並而正在消失，而這種情況一直在持續。”
