中國的網絡購物如火如荼，但利潤何在大綱

IT IS “one of the few bright spots in the Chinese economy,” says Zeng Ming. He is talking about e-commerce. Mr Zeng, the chief strategy officer for Alibaba, a giant Chinese internet firm, predicts that digital transactions on his firm’s platforms will top 1 trillion yuan ($159 billion) this year—more than Amazon’s and eBay’s combined. That is a bold claim; but consider what happened on Singles Sunday.

中國互聯網巨頭——阿里巴巴集團【注1】的總參謀長曾鳴【注2】將電子商務稱爲“中國經濟少有的亮點之一”。他預測，今年阿里巴巴各平臺的數字交易額將突破10000億元人民幣（約合1590億美元），超過亞馬遜和 eBay 的交易額總和。曾鳴此言大膽無畏；看看上週日光棍節那天的情況就可想而知了。

Invented a few years ago by students and seized upon by digital marketers, this festival for lonely hearts falls annually on the 11th day of the 11th month (since 1 is the loneliest number). It is like St Valentine’s Day, only worse. Singletons shower each other with tender gifts: a barrage of pearls; a storm of sweets.

幾年前，一些學生把每年的11月11日定爲單身者的節日——“光棍節”【注3】（因爲“1”是最爲“孤獨”的數字）。隨後，數字營銷者抓住了這個商業機 遇。光棍節和情人節有些類似，只不過沒有情人節那麼美好。在這一天，單身人士會彼此交換很多貼心的禮物：比如大包的珠寶首飾、大把的糖果。

This November 11th they spent a staggering 19 billion yuan on Alibaba’s online platforms—a fourfold increase on a year ago, and more than double what Americans spent online last Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving, when retailers urge Americans to shop online). More than 100m purchases were logged, accounting for 80% of the packages shipped that day. Couriers were buried in parcels.

今年11月11日，阿里巴巴各個網絡平臺的銷售額達到了驚人的190億元人民幣，比一年前翻了兩番，也是去年“網絡星期一”當天美國網購交易額的兩倍以上 （“網絡星期一”是感恩節之後的週一，美國零售商鼓勵人們在這一天在線購物）。根據記錄，今年11月11日有一億份以上的網購訂單生效，佔當天總髮貨量的 80%。運送包裹的快遞員忙得不可開交。

So life is good for China’s etailers, then? Not exactly. The number of digital marketers is increasing and online sales are booming (see chart). Consumers are enjoying lower prices, better service and more variety. The problem? The pressure on margins in Chinese e-commerce is worse than in America, reckons Elinor Leung of CLSA, a broker. “Almost no one makes money,” she says.

那麼，想必中國電商【注4】的日子過得很滋潤吧？不盡然。數字營銷者的隊伍越來越龐大，網絡銷售也是紅紅火火（見圖表）。消費者享受着更低的價格、更好的服務和更大的選擇範圍。可問題在哪？里昂證券經紀人 Elinor Leung 認爲，中國電子商務的利潤壓力比美國還大，“幾乎沒什麼人在賺錢”。

The fiercest battles are being fought between online retailers and their bricks-and-mortar rivals. Dangdang, a firm that resembles Amazon, and 360buy, another online retailer, have cut prices ferociously. Tencent, a cash-rich online giant known for its instant-messaging software, is splashing out to win market share. 360buy has also just raised $400m from investors to do the same. But it is unclear how much longer such firms can burn through capital.

傳統實體企業是網絡零售商的競爭對手，二者正在打着幾場最爲慘烈的商戰。噹噹網和京東商城展開了一 場血拼價格戰（前者是類似亞馬遜的公司，後者是另一家網絡零售商）。以即時通訊軟件而聞名的騰訊公司是一家財大氣粗的網絡巨頭，它也爲佔據市場份額花費了 大筆資金。前不久，京東商城還進行了四億美元的融資，同樣是爲了提高其市場佔有率。但這些公司的“燒錢”行爲還能支撐多久？不得而知。

That is especially so since physical retailers are fighting back. Walmart has increased its stake in Yihaodian, a local e-commerce firm. Jeff Walters of BCG, a consultancy, argues that in a good year a retailer like Walmart could open 40-50 physical stores, just a sliver of the Chinese market, “which is why e-commerce is so important for them here”. Many Western rivals have flopped in China with the big-box strategy; including, most recently, Best Buy (an electronics chain) and Home Depot (a do-it-yourself shop).

這種情況尤爲明顯，因爲實體零售商已經發起了反攻。沃爾瑪增加了自己在中國本土電子商務公司——“1號店”【注5】所持有的股份。來自諮詢公司 BCG 的 Jeff Walters 認爲：在效益好的年份裏，像沃爾瑪這樣的零售商可以開設四五十家實體店，而這個數目在中國市場上只是九牛一毛—— “所以電子商務對這些公司來說非常重要”。很多在中國推行倉儲直營模式的西方競爭者都栽了跟頭，比如最近的百思買（一家電子產品連鎖企業）和家得寶（一家 自助式家居建材用品零售商）【注6】。

Suning and Gome, big Chinese high-street electronics stores, are putting an expanded range of products on their websites. Alan Lau of McKinsey & Co, a consultancy, says they are also pushing manufacturers to stop offering etailers such big discounts. He estimates that in 2011 computers and handsets sold online were 12% cheaper than in stores; this year they are only 7% cheaper. As the gap gets smaller, so do nearly everyone’s margins.

中國兩家大型連鎖家電銷售企業——蘇寧電器和國美電器都在各自網站上擴大了產品門類。麥肯錫諮詢公司的 Alan Lau 認爲，兩家企業此舉也在向製造商施壓，促使其減小對電商的打折力度。他估計，2011年網上銷售的電腦和手機比實體店便宜12%，而今年只比實體店便宜7%。隨着價格差距的縮小，幾乎所有企業的利潤都受到了影響。The great exception is Alibaba, which handles nearly three-quarters of China’s e-commerce. Because its Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer) platforms connect buyers and sellers, the firm does not carry the cost of logistics or inventory. It makes none of the products it sells. (American officials have branded it a “notorious” counterfeit market, a charge Alibaba deems unfair.) It makes money chiefly through advertisements, not user fees, a model that works thanks to its dominant position.

阿里巴巴是個大大的例外——它控制了中國電子商務將近75%的市場份額。由於阿里巴巴旗下擁有“客對客”的淘寶網和“商對客”的天貓商城等平臺【注7】來 讓買賣雙方聯繫起來，該公司無需承擔物流或是倉儲方面的成本。它銷售的產品也並非由自己生產（美國官員將阿里巴巴斥爲一塊“臭名昭著”的假貨市場，而該公 司認爲這種指責有失公允）。阿里巴巴主要通過廣告來盈利，而不依靠用戶繳納的費用。由於它在市場上佔據了主導地位，這種模式行之有效。

Privately held Alibaba does not discuss its finances, but Yahoo! owns a stake (which it is winding down). The American internet firm’s disclosures this month reveal that Alibaba’s revenues nearly doubled year-on-year, to $2.9 billion for the three quarters ending in June. Its profits tripled to $730m over that period.

阿里巴巴是私人控股公司，並不會公開其財務狀況。但雅虎公司擁有阿里巴巴的股份（雅虎正在逐步減少其份額）。根據這家美國互聯網公司本月披露的數據顯示， 阿里巴巴的收入與上年同期相比幾乎翻了一番，在截至今年六月的三個季度中達到了29億美元；同期利潤也增長了兩倍，達到了7.3億美元。

Alibaba is bullish. In China e-commerce already accounts for nearly 5% of total retail sales, roughly the same as in America. But its potential is greater, argues the firm. In America, physical retailers are already efficient and everywhere. In China, they are highly fragmented, inefficient and barely visible outside big cities. So etailers could leapfrog them.

阿里巴巴對前景感到樂觀。該公司認爲：中國的電子商務已經佔了零售銷售額總量的近5%，和美國的比例大致相同；但該行業的潛力尚未得到充分挖掘。在美國， 實體零售商無處不在，已經有了不錯的效率。而在中國，實體零售產業高度分化、效率較低，而且在大城市之外鮮有涉足。因此，電商可以迎頭趕上，搶佔市場。

Mr Zeng notes that legions of Chinese have yet to go online. As they do so, Alibaba will be watching, recording and analysing their shopping habits. The firm is devising a “big data” strategy. It hopes to help vendors harness customer information quickly and share insights among themselves. This could allow them to accelerate product-design cycles.

曾鳴指出，中國目前還有大批民衆尚未開始網絡購物。隨着他們走上這條道路，阿里巴巴將觀察、記錄並分析其購物習慣。該公司正在設計一種“大數據”戰略，希望幫助各銷售商高效地利用客戶信息並彼此分享商業經驗。此舉可以讓他們縮短產品設計週期。

The firm’s lofty ambition is to help China move towards “mass customisation” and “user-generated innovation”—turning trendy jargon into reality. “The entire supply chain will sit on e-commerce,” insists Mr Zeng. “It will be not just a tool, but the heart of the entire economy.”

阿里巴巴有着宏圖壯志：幫助中國走向“大規模定製”和“用戶創新”——把這些時髦的行業術語變成現實。曾鳴堅稱：“整個供應鏈將以電子商務爲依託。電子商務將不僅僅是一種工具，更是整體經濟的核心。”