中印股市分化讓機構踏空

China and India are diverging again. Since the beginning of March, the MSCI China index is up one-fifth; MSCI India is down nearly one-tenth.

中國和印度再次出現分化。自3月初以來，摩根士丹利資本國際中國指數(MSCI China index)上漲五分之一；摩根士丹利資本國際印度指數則下跌近十分之一。

This is not what one might have expected: macro data have favoured India, where growth in output has been revised up and, at 7.5 per cent, is set to surpass that of China this year.

這不同於人們或許會預料到的結果：宏觀數據對印度有利，印度已將預測產出增長率上調至7.5%，預計今年就將超越中國。

Institutional investors have been unprepared for China’s stock market rally. Asia fund managers are very overweight India, but only slightly ahead of benchmarks in China, on EPFR and MSCI data. Notably, as China’s rally has advanced, China country funds have had net outflows in all but two weeks of this year. Citi says that there is less global money invested in China now than at the start of 2012. India has one-tenth more.

機構投資者對中國股市漲勢缺乏準備。EPFR和摩根士丹利資本國際的數據顯示，亞洲基金管理公司對印度股票的配置權重遠高於基準，但對中國股票的配置權重僅略高於基準。值得注意的是，隨着中國股市繼續反彈，專注於中國的基金今年除兩週外，每週都遭遇淨流出。花旗(Citi)表示，眼下投資於中國的國際資金比2012年初還要少。投資於印度的國際資金則多了十分之一。

The liquidity environment is similar in both countries, with falling rates freeing cash to chase equities. Yet despite the rally in the MSCI China index, multiple expansion has not been excessive. This is partly down to the constituents: MSCI China includes stately Hong Kong-listed shares such as PetroChina, Bank of China, Lenovo and Haitong Securities, but not racy Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed A shares, which have simply exploded.

兩國的流動性環境類似，利率都在下降，釋放出資金，能夠追捧股票。然而，儘管摩根士丹利資本國際中國指數反彈，但市盈率的擴張並不過分。這在一定程度上緣於摩根士丹利資本國際中國指數選取的成分股：該指數包括了中石油(PetroChina)、中國銀行(BoC)、聯想(Lenovo)和海通證券(Haitong Securities)等在香港上市的藍籌股，但並不包括更活躍的滬深兩市A股，後者出現了爆炸式上漲。

Still, Citi notes MSCI China earnings are 58 per cent above their 2008 peak. Indian earnings, meanwhile, are 6 per cent up from pre-crisis levels.

話雖如此，花旗指出，摩根士丹利資本國際中國指數成分股的盈利比2008年的峯值高58%，而摩根士丹利資本國際印度指數的盈利比危機前水平高6%。

Volatility might also favour China: its volatility index has risen sharply this month, meaning investors must pay up for options to buy or sell shares in the future. Last week, the index hit 32, one-third of the high set at the peak of the 2008 panic. While also up, India’s volatility index is only 19, below the average of 25 since 2008.

波動性或許也有利於中國：其波動性指數本月大幅上漲，意味着投資者必須爲未來買入或賣出股票的期權付出更高價格。上週，該指數達到32，是2008年危機高峯期最高值的三分之一。印度的波動性指數儘管也出現了上漲，但眼下僅爲19，低於自2008年以來25的平均值。

This suggests that investors are increasingly scared about the rally in China. The more fear there is, the more likely it is that institutions will delay investing — until they have to capitulate and play catch-up. China shares have further room to outrun India.

這似乎表明投資者對中國股市反彈越來越恐懼。市場上恐懼氛圍越嚴重，機構投資者就越有可能推遲投資，直到它們不得不投降、然後急着追趕。中國股票還有進一步跑贏印度的空間。