安倍經濟學 三年未見真正成效

TOKYO — Japan's economy has contracted so many times in the last few years that the meaning of recession has started to blur. If an economy is shrinking almost as often as it is growing, what does any single downturn say about its health?

東京——在過去幾年裏，日本經濟多次出現收縮，以至於衰退的涵義都模糊了。如果一個經濟體收縮的次數不下於增長的次數，那麼對於該經濟體的健康狀況而言，區區一次收縮又能說明什麼問題呢？

Now Japan appears to be faltering again.

現在，日本似乎再次出現了不景氣。

After a decline in the second quarter, there are signs that output may have slipped again in the third, driven down in part by a slowing Chinese economy. Economists expect any recession to be short and shallow, but the deeper lesson looks more troubling: Nearly three years after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gained office on a pledge to end economic stagnation, a decisive break with the past still appears far off.

第二季度的經濟指標有所下滑，而且有跡象表明，第三季度的經濟產出也會下滑，部分原因在於中國經濟出現放緩。經濟學家預計，任何衰退都是短暫的、小幅的，但更深層次的問題看起來更加令人不安：在安倍晉三擔任首相、承諾結束經濟停滯的三年之後，決定性的突破仍然顯得遙不可及。

“The potential growth rate is close to zero, so any small shock can put the economy into recession,” said Masamichi Adachi, the chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase. “Growth expectations are anemic.”

“潛在增長率接近於零，任何微小的衝擊都可能讓經濟陷入衰退，”摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)駐日本首席經濟學家足立正道(Masamichi Adachi)表示。“增長預期乏力。”

As a result, some economists are betting that the Bank of Japan, which has been pumping vast amounts of money into the economy by buying up government debt, will pull the trigger on more stimulus at its next board meeting on Friday.

因此，一些經濟學家認爲，日本央行在週五召開的下次委員會會議上，將出臺更多刺激政策。央行正在通過購買政府債務的形式，向日本經濟注入大量貨幣。

The central bank's aggressive intervention has been central to Abe's policies, widely known as Abenomics. But events have conspired to blunt its impact.

在安倍晉三被廣泛稱爲“安倍經濟學”(Abenomics)的政策中，央行的激進干預是一個核心。但各種事件疊加在一起，削弱了它的效果。

Last year, it was an ill-timed sales tax increase, which rattled Japanese consumers and dissuaded them from spending. Lately it has been the deceleration in China, whose factories have been important buyers of Japanese-made machinery.

去年是不合時宜地增加銷售稅，讓日本消費者受到衝擊，打擊了他們的消費意願。最近則是中國增速放緩，中國工廠是日本製造的機械設備的重要買主。

But the more fundamental problem, many specialists say, is that Japan's economy simply doesn't grow much in the first place.

但很多專家說，更根本的問題在於，日本經濟本身首先就沒有較大的增長。

Baseline growth is essentially zero. Gross domestic product is the same size it was in the mid-1990s, in part because the workforce is shrinking. So where a faster-moving economy might simply lose momentum in response to headwinds, Japan's goes into reverse.

日本基線增長基本爲零。國內生產總值(GDP)相當於90年代中期的水平，部分原因在於日本勞動力正在萎縮。飛速增長的經濟體在遭遇阻力時，可能只會趨於乏力，但在這樣的情況下，日本經濟卻會出現逆轉。

So far, Abe's policies have done little to change the dynamic.

迄今爲止，安倍的政策似乎在改變形勢上沒有起到什麼效果。

“Overseas investors appear increasingly disillusioned with Abenomics,” Naohiko Baba, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs, said last week after a series of meetings with clients in the United States, Europe and elsewhere in Asia.

“海外投資者對安倍經濟學的期望似乎日漸破滅，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)駐日本首席經濟學家馬場直彥(Naohiko Baba)上週表示。此前他曾與美國、歐洲和亞洲其他地區的客戶進行了一系列會面。

Foreign investors' enthusiasm for Abenomics was a central force in driving up Japanese stock prices, one of the few clear-cut successes of Abe's economic program. Although the rally has lost steam in the last few months along with other global markets, the Nikkei 225 is still about twice the level it was when Abe took office at the end of 2012.

外國投資者對於安倍經濟學的看好，是推高日本股價的核心力量，股市也是安倍的政策明確取得成功的少數幾個領域之一。雖然在過去的幾個月裏，日本股市的漲勢就像全球其他市場一樣失去了動力，但日經225指數(Nikkei 225)仍然維持在安倍晉三2012年底上臺時的兩倍左右。

Other parts of the economy look weaker. One of Abenomics' central objectives, to generate a strong and sustained rise in consumer prices, “remains very elusive,” Baba said, as do its goals of raising workers' incomes and dismantling regulatory hurdles to business.

但日本經濟的其他領域看上去更爲疲弱。安倍經濟學的核心目標之一是促使物價穩健而持續地上升，這方面的效果“仍然非常渺茫，”馬場直彥說，在提高勞動者收入，爲企業掃除監管障礙方面也是如此。

Taken together, improvements in these areas were supposed to bolster the economy's metabolism and increase its underlying potential to grow.

總之，這些方面的改進，意在提高經濟的新陳代謝速度，從根本上提升其增長潛力。

The central bank has played an outsize role in the effort. Under its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, it has pursued a “quantitative easing” strategy similar to that introduced by the Federal Reserve after the global financial meltdown seven years ago.

日本央行在這方面起到了巨大作用。在行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)的領導下，央行一直在實施“量化寬鬆”策略，與美聯儲在全球金融危機之後，在七年前採取的行動類似。

But the Fed has cut back its bond-buying program in response to a recovering U.S. economy, and it is now considering whether to raise its benchmark interest rate from close to zero. A move by the Japanese central bank would go in the opposite direction — toward even looser monetary policy.

但因爲美國經濟復甦，美聯儲已削減了債券購買計劃。目前，美聯儲正在考慮是否加息，改變基準利率接近零的情況。日本央行的舉動則指向相反的方向，採取更加寬容的貨幣政策。

The Bank of Japan's meeting this week will coincide with a twice-yearly update of board members' forecasts for growth and inflation, which are likely to show increased pessimism. Kuroda timed his last blast of stimulus with the same October review last year, catching the markets by surprise. Stocks in Japan and around the world jumped.

日本央行本週召開會議之時，正好會趕上其委員會成員更新自己對增長和通貨膨脹的預期。這種更新一年兩次。最新的預測可能會顯示出，悲觀情緒加劇。黑田東彥的上一波刺激行動，也選擇在去年10月預測數據更新的時候，出乎市場預料，引發日本和全球股市大漲。

Kuroda has been doing his best to lower expectations, insisting that the bank's current monetary settings are sufficient. Inflation has been held back by falling oil prices, he says, but the underlying direction of prices and wages is upward.

黑田東彥一直在盡全力降低預期，堅稱該行目前的貨幣政策是充分的。他表示，油價下跌抑制了通貨膨脹，但物價和工資的基本方向是上行的。

“I think the current policy, so-called qualitative and quantitative easing, has been working, having the intended impact on the economy,” he said in an interview with CNBC on Oct. 11, at a meeting of global central bankers in Lima.

“我認爲目前的政策，即所謂的質化與量化寬鬆政策一直在起作用，對經濟的影響達到了預期，”他在10月11日接受CNBC的採訪時說。當時，他正在利馬參加一次全球央行行長會議。

Kuroda misdirected markets with similar talk before his unexpected move last year. But he may face greater constraints to action this time around. Stimulus measures by the central bank tend to drag down the value of the yen. That is good for multinational companies that earn revenue abroad, but it risks angering Japan's trading partners, as well as Japanese consumers and small businesses, whose buying power declines with the currency.

黑田東彥去年採取意料之外的動作前，也用類似的言論誤導了市場。但這一次，他採取行動所面臨的限制可能更大。央行的刺激措施，往往會導致日元貶值。這對有海外收入的跨國公司有利，但可能會惹怒日本的貿易伙伴，以及日本消費者和小企業，後者的購買力會隨着日元貶值而降低。

This month, Japan and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, including the United States, reached a hard-won agreement on a sprawling trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Abe says the increased trade and investment flows it promises to generate are crucial to raising Japan's long-run growth rate. But the pact is subject to approval by each country's legislature, including the U.S. Congress, where some members have accused Japan of unfairly suppressing the value of the yen to gain a competitive advantage.

本月，日本和包括美國在內的另外11個環太平洋國家就一項規模龐大的貿易協議，即“跨太平洋夥伴關係協定”（Trans Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP），達成了來之不易的共識。安倍晉三稱，該協議料將帶來更多的貿易和投資，這對提振日本的長期增長至關重要。但該協定還須得到包括美國國會在內的各國立法機構的批准。美國部分國會議員指責，日本爲獲取競爭優勢而有失公正地壓低了日元匯率。

“Foreign exchange policy is very tricky with TPP in the balance,” said Adachi of JPMorgan, who used to work at the Japanese central bank and understands the political sensitivities that can shape its nominally independent decisions. “Ordinary households don't want to see a weaker yen, either,” he added, noting that the government faces an election for the upper house of Parliament next year.

“在TPP懸而未決的情況下，外匯政策非常棘手，”摩根大通的足立正道說。他曾在日本央行任職，瞭解影響該行決策的的政治敏感性。日本央行的決策名義上是獨立的。“普通家庭也不想看到日元貶值，”他接着說，並指出政府還面臨着明年的議會上院選舉。

Abe's economic team, normally a cheerleader for bolder central bank action, has also been unusually circumspect. “The Bank of Japan may not ease policy further any time soon,” Finance Minister Taro Aso said in a recent interview with the public broadcaster NHK.

安倍晉三的經濟團隊通常都支持央行採取更大膽的行動，但這一次卻出人意料地謹慎。“日本央行近期可能不會進一步放寬政策，”日本財務大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)最近在接受日本的公共廣播電視機構NHK的採訪時說。