安倍首訪非洲 車馬未至投資先行

Japan is flexing its diplomatic and commercial muscle in Africa, seeking commodities and new markets in an effort to catch up with other nations, including China, that have poured billions of dollars into the region in recent years.

日本準備在非洲顯示其外交和商業實力，尋找大宗商品和新市場，以努力追趕上其他近年來已向該地區傾注數十億美元的國家，包括中國。

Shinzo Abe is leading the first visit by a Japanese prime minister to sub-Saharan Africa in eight years this week to support “Japanese companies’ investments to secure important natural resources” in the region, Tokyo said. The top Japanese trading houses, or sogo shosha, have already started to pour billions of dollars into projects including Mitsui’s in Mozambique to produce liquefied natural gas. Sumitomo and Mitsubishi are also targeting the region.

安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)本週正在訪問撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲，這是八年來日本首相第一次訪問該地區。日本政府表示，安倍此行旨在支持“日本企業爲在該地區獲取重要自然資源所作的投資”。日本頂級商社——稱爲“綜合商社”(sogo shosha)——已開始投入數十億美元開展項目，包括三井物產(Mitsui)在莫桑比克生產液化天然氣的項目。住友(Sumitomo)和三菱(Mitsubishi)也把目光對準了該地區。

David Shinn, professor of international relations at George Washington University and a former US ambassador to several African countries, said the trip was a “belated recognition” that Japan was “falling behind a number of rising countries in Africa”, including China, India, Brazil, South Korea and Turkey.

喬治華盛頓大學(George Washington University)國際關係學教授戴維•希恩(David Shinn)曾任美國駐非洲多個國家的大使。他說，安倍此行是“後知後覺”，日本終於發現自己“在非洲落後於一些崛起國家”——包括中國、印度、巴西、韓國和土耳其。

The increase of Japanese investments in Africa, particularly in commodities, could provide an important counterweight to China’s influence, foreign executives said. In recent years, a growing number of African officials have voiced concern that China is taking the continent’s natural resources and selling back manufactured goods, a relationship that echoes European colonialism a century ago.

外企高管們表示，日本增加對非投資，特別是對大宗商品的投資，可以對中國的影響構成一種重要的平衡。近年來，越來越多的非洲官員表達了擔憂，他們擔心中國一方面拿走非洲的自然資源，另一方面向非洲銷售工業製成品，這讓人回想起一個世紀以前的歐洲殖民主義。

Hiroyuki Takai, head of research at Sumitomo, the Tokyo-based trading house, said the Japanese push would trigger some “competition between Chinese and Japanese companies”. But he played down the prospect of a clash, saying: “It’s good and healthy to have fair competition on behalf of the African countries.”

住友是總部位於東京的商社。其研究部門主管Hiroyuki Takai認爲，日本挺進非洲將引發一些“中國和日本企業之間的競爭”。但他對發生衝突的可能則予以淡化，“從非洲國家利益來看，出現公平競爭是好事，有益於良性發展。”

Mr Abe is set to announce more than Y60bn ($576m) in loans to Mozambique to help finance a transport network to ship coal to a new export terminal. Last year Tokyo promised more than $30bn in aid to African countries over the next five years.

安倍計劃宣佈向莫桑比克提供逾600億日元（合5.76億美元）的貸款，資助一個運輸網的建設，以便將煤炭運送到一個新的出口終端。去年，日本政府承諾，未來五年將向非洲國家提供超過300億美元的援助。

The renewed push into Africa started to gather pace last year but this week’s trip will take it to a new level, diplomats said. A similar push in 2008 fizzled out soon after.

外交人士表示，日本從去年起開始加快重新挺進非洲的步伐，但安倍本週的訪問將其推向新的高度。2008年日本的類似舉動在開始不久便偃旗息鼓。

Mr Shinn added that the trip was also a “recognition that there is more money to be made in Africa today than was the case” since a Japanese prime minister last visited the region eight years ago. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the economy of sub-Saharan Africa would grow 6 per cent in 2014, second only to the 6.5 per cent growth rate in the developing Asia region, which includes China.

希恩還表示，日本首相上次訪問該地區還是在八年前，因此，安倍此行也表明日本“認識到今天的非洲比過去有更多賺錢的機會”。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計，2014年撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲的經濟增長率將達到6%，僅次於亞洲發展中地區（包括中國）6.5%的增長率。

Analysts cautioned that the Japanese push had its limits. Tokyo is unlikely to match the firepower of China, which has invested billions of dollars in the region, on top of billions more in no-strings-attached soft loans that have financed railways, power plants and other infrastructure projects across Africa. Chinese trade with Africa is far larger too, rising in 2012 to nearly $180bn, compared with $25bn for Japan.

分析人士指出，日本對非投資力度有限，不太可能達到中國的投資規模，後者已在該地區投入數十億美元，另外還有幾十億不帶附加條件的低息貸款，用於資助非洲各地修建鐵路、發電廠和其他基礎設施項目。中國與非洲的貿易規模也比日本大得多，2012年的貿易額升至近1800億美元，而日本只有250億美元。

Perhaps the biggest example of Chinese dominance will become apparent tomor­­row when Mr Abe gives his policy speech on Africa at the headquarters of the African Union, a $200m building funded by China as a gift to the continent.

安倍明天在非洲聯盟(African Union)總部發表對非政策演說時，恐怕將是中國的影響力得到最大體現的時刻。這棟建築是中國政府斥資2億美元送給非洲的一份禮物。

The renewed engagement with Africa is part of a broader effort by Mr Abe to put an assertive stamp on Japan’s foreign policy. In the year since he returned to power for a second stint as prime minister, he has made about one overseas trip a month, notably more than his recent predecessors.

重啓與非洲合作是安倍在更廣泛的領域上實行強勢外交政策努力的一部分。他再度出任日本首相一年以來，大約每月開展一次外事出訪，明顯多於幾位前任首相。

Some of the trips, in particular to southeast Asia, have given the impression of an alliance-building campaign directed at China, though commercial motives have also been prominent, from natural-resource dev­elop­ment deals to an agreement to sell Japanese nuc­lear technology to Turkey.

某些訪問，特別是對東南亞國家的訪問，讓人感覺日本是在進行一項針對中國的結盟計劃。不過，從開發自然資源的協議到向土耳其出售日本核技術的協議，這些訪問的商業動機也同樣突出。