日本首相安倍晉三爲何訪問珍珠港
When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe makes his visit to Pearl Harbor, just after Christmas, it will be a dovish act that masks a hawkish intent.
日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)將訪問珍珠港(Pearl Harbor)，此舉將是一個掩蓋鷹派意圖的鴿派行爲。
There can be no doubt that when Mr Abe stands shoulder to shoulder with US President Barack Obama at the scene of his country’s 1941 attack on Hawaii — the first Japanese leader to go to the site — he will be carrying out a deeply meaningful gesture of reconciliation.
毫無疑問，當安倍與美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)並肩站在日本1941年襲擊夏威夷珍珠港的現場時————他將展現出具有深遠意義的和解姿態。
It reciprocates Mr Obama’s historic visit to Hiroshima in remembrance of up to 80,000 people who died when the US used an atomic weapon against the city in 1945.
這是對奧巴馬歷史性地訪問廣島、紀念1945年死於美國原子彈襲擊的8萬死難者的禮尚往來。
It also follows Japan’s surprising diplomatic approaches to former foes.
此前，日本還向昔日的敵人作出了令人意外的外交舉動，
These include an agreement with South Korea over women forced into prostitution during the second world war, sealed about a year ago.
包括約1年前就二戰慰安婦一事與韓國簽訂的協議。
Tokyo issued an apology and pledged $8m to surviving victims; both sides called the deal final and irrevocable.
東京方面正式道歉並承諾向仍然在世的受害者賠償800萬美元；雙方稱該協議爲最終且不可逆的了結。
Pragmatism appears to be tempering Mr Abe’s rightwing instincts, which include an alarming penchant for historical revisionism regarding wartime Imperial army depredations.
務實主義似乎緩和了安倍的右翼本能（後者包括他對於戰時大日本帝國陸軍劫掠行爲的令人震驚的歷史修正主義傾向）。
Yet it may be argued that this very pragmatism is driven by a conservative agenda.
不過或許可以辯稱，這種務實姿態恰恰是受保守議程的驅動。
Mr Abe’s dream is to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution, drawn up by the US under postwar occupation, so allowing the country to have a real army.
安倍的夢想是修訂日本和平憲法（戰後日本被美軍佔領期間由美國起草），從而讓日本擁有真正的軍隊。
The thumping majority in parliament’s upper house that the prime minister won in July has allowed him to test the waters on achieving that goal.
7月，安倍在日本參議院獲得了絕對多數議席，這使得他可以嘗試實現修憲目標。
Yet he faces strong opposition among Asian neighbours, many Americans and Japan’s own people to the idea of shedding constitutional restraints on military power — in particular, Article 9 of the constitution, which says land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.
不過，對於擺脫憲法對軍力限制的構想——特別是和平憲法第九條永遠不保持陸海空軍及其他戰爭力量——他面臨着來自亞洲鄰國、許多美國人以及日本民衆的強烈反對。
The Japanese leader is also already looking beyond Mr Obama to the presidency of Donald Trump, and he is eager to continue the golf club diplomacy
這位日本領導人的視線也已經越過了奧巴馬、展望唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的總統任期，並且迫切希望推進高爾夫球友外交。
that he enjoyed in November as the first foreign leader to visit the incoming president at Trump Tower, in which the two exchanged gifts of golfing gear.
11月，安倍成爲首位親臨川普大樓(Trump Tower)拜訪美國當選總統的外國領導人，其間兩人互贈了高爾夫球裝備作爲禮物。
On both fronts, visiting Pearl Harbor is shrewd politics.
無論從哪方面看，訪問珍珠港都是一個精明的政治舉動。
High-profile acts of historical rapprochement, such as paying respects in Hawaii, may go some way to defusing fears about militarism reawakening in Japan under a new charter — and under a leader who makes no secret of his conservative outlook.
高調的歷史和解舉動，比如在夏威夷向死難者致敬，可能在一定程度上化解外界對新憲法——以及從不掩飾其保守觀點的領導人——下日本軍國主義擡頭的擔憂。
The visit will also be an ideal stage on which to reaffirm Japan’s alliance with the US as a volatile incoming American administration sends contradictory signals about its strategic intent in Asia.
在具有不確定性的美國新一屆行政當局在亞洲戰略意圖上發出矛盾信號之際， 此次訪問也將是重新確立日美同盟的理想舞臺。
The prime minister holds one crucial advantage in pressing for constitutional change — and visiting Pearl Harbor will strengthen that card.
安倍在施壓修憲方面掌握着一個關鍵優勢——而訪問珍珠港將加強這張牌的效果。
The US, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, has long urged Japan to do just what Mr Abe wants: broaden the role and capabilities of the nation’s military.
無論是由共和黨還是民主黨執掌行政當局，美國官方長期敦促日本採取的行動正是安倍所希望的：拓寬日本軍隊的角色，並提升其能力。
It wants Japan to shoulder its share of the Asian security burden.
美方希望日本分擔美國在亞洲的安全負擔。
The irony is that Mr Trump’s rant that the Japanese can sit home and watch Sony television if America is attacked is a warped, hall-of-mirrors reflection of long-held Washington positions.
諷刺的是，特朗普的咆哮（如果美國遭到攻擊，日本可能會坐在家裏看索尼電視）只是從一個側面反映了華盛頓方面的長期立場。
American policymakers since the cold war have complained about Tokyo’s buck-passing as the US kept Japan and the world safe.
自冷戰以來，美國政策制定者一直抱怨，在美國維護日本乃至世界的安全之際，東京方面卻在推卸責任。
That is simply a more polite expression of Trump’s complaint.
這只是更禮貌地表達了特朗普的抱怨。
The Pearl Harbor visit — standing next to a popular, moderate and statesmanlike president — allows Mr Abe to send the right messages to multiple stakeholders: US veterans, Japan’s neighbours and the Japanese people.
訪問珍珠港，站在一位受歡迎、溫和、具有政治家風範的美國總統身邊，使得安倍可以向多個利益相關方——美國老兵、日本的鄰國以及日本民衆——傳達正確的信息。
Mr Abe’s revisionist tendencies — which in a previous stint as premier included questioning evidence that Korean women were forced into prostitution — are a cause for worry and vigilance is required.
安倍的修正主義傾向——在此前擔任日本首相的短暫任期內，他竟然質疑韓國婦女被迫淪爲慰安婦的證據——有理由讓人擔憂，需要對這種傾向保持警惕。
Yet in the 70 years since the end of second world war, Japan has by and large established itself as a responsible global citizen.
不過，在二戰結束以來的70年裏，日本大體上確立了自己作爲負責任的全球公民的地位。
And the current Japanese administration may come across today as rather reassuring, compared with the rabid populism that has become a global trend.
而與已經成爲全球趨勢的狂熱民粹主義相比，當今的日本政府看上去似乎相當令人放心。
In the strange world in which we live, even the arch-conservative Mr Abe, aided by his team’s deep institutional knowledge of governance, may provide geopolitical ballast that will help the centre hold.
在我們所生活的這個奇怪世界裏，即使極端保守的安倍在其團隊的深層次制度化的治理知識的輔助下，也可能成爲地緣政治的鎮流器，有助於保持主流中間立場。
Mr Abe alone among recent Japanese leaders enjoys the domestic clout needed to visit Pearl Harbor.
在最近幾任日本領導人中，唯獨安倍擁有訪問珍珠港所必需的國內影響力。
And it is the right thing to do — whatever his strategic imperatives.
而無論他的戰略意圖是什麼，此舉都是正確行爲。
Even from a centrist perspective, he is also correct to argue that it is time Japan took a greater role in its own security and in that of the region, especially in the face of an increasingly assertive China and an unpredictable North Korea.
即使從中間立場人士的視角看，他認爲日本是時候在確保本國乃至地區安全上發揮更大作用，也是正確的，特別是在中國日益強硬、朝鮮愈發難以預料的情況下。
But first Japan must exorcise the demons of its past.
但是首先日本必須趕走昔日的心魔。
A bow from Mr Abe at Pearl Harbor will be a positive step in that direction.
安倍若能在珍珠港鞠躬，將是向這個方向邁出的積極一步。
