中國房市明年對經濟拖累更大
The slump in house building in China has driven half of the slowdown in the country’s economic growth since 2010 and is poised to weigh even more heavily in 2016, according to analysis by Standard Chartered.
根據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的分析，中國自2010年以來經濟增長減速，有一半降幅是住房建設低迷造成的，而2016年這個環節將給整體經濟帶來更大拖累。
The housing market is in even worse shape in Hong Kong, where residential property prices will fall by 10-20 per cent in the next two to three years, the emerging markets-focused bank forecasts, and Singapore, where prices are already falling and are likely to decline by a further 5-10 per cent.
香港和新加坡的住房市場更是糟糕。這家專注於新興市場的銀行預測，未來兩到三年，香港住宅地產價格將下跌10%至20%。新加坡房價已在下滑，很可能再跌5%至10%。
“China’s volatile housing sector may be the single most important sector in the world economy at present,” says Enam Ahmed, senior economist, thematic research at Standard Chartered.
渣打銀行主題研究部高級經濟學家埃納姆縠哈邁德(Enam Ahmed)說：“中國變動不定的住房行業可能是當前世界經濟中唯一最重要的行業。”
“Homebuilding has slumped in the face of a glut of unsold properties and falling prices, pulling down the country’s GDP [gross domestic product] growth rate and impacting commodity markets globally.”
“大量未售房屋以及房價下跌致使住房建設陷入萎靡，不僅拉低了中國GDP增速，還影響全球大宗商品市場。”
Mr Ahmed adds: “Expected [US] rate increases are hanging over housing markets in Singapore and Hong Kong, compounded by fears that Hong Kong housing is in a bubble. Prices have already peaked in Singapore and are likely peaking in Hong Kong now.”
艾哈邁德補充說：“對（美國）加息的預期籠罩着新加坡和香港的住房市場，還有一種擔憂是香港房市可能有泡沫。新加坡房價已經見頂，香港房價也可能就要見頂。”
StanChart calculates that housing and sectors linked to housing (such as the residential component of cement, steel, glass and copper demand) contributed 3 percentage points to China’s GDP growth in 2010, but just 1.1 percentage points this year.
渣打估算，2010年，住房及相關行業（用於住宅建設的水泥、鋼材、玻璃以及銅等的需求）爲中國GDP增速貢獻了3個百分點，但今年只有1.1個百分點。
With economic growth having slowed from 10.6 per cent to 6.9 per cent over the same period, this suggests that the ills of the housing market were responsible for half of the slowdown in economic growth.
同一時期，經濟增速從10.6%放緩至6.9%，這樣一推算，經濟增速有一半降幅是由住房市場的萎靡造成的。
Mr Ahmed believes the residential property sector will weigh more heavily still in 2016, with its contribution to economic growth falling to between zero and 1 percentage point, although a pick-up in activity elsewhere in the Chinese economy should keep overall GDP growth at around 7 per cent, he forecasts.
艾哈邁德認爲，2016年，住宅房地產行業將給經濟帶來更大拖累，其對經濟增長率的貢獻將降到零至1個百分點之間。但他預計，中國其他經濟部門向好應會使整體GDP增速保持在7%左右。
StanChart does not believe that mainland China is suffering from a generalised house price bubble, even if prices, relative to wages, have risen to eye-watering levels in major cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai, as the first chart shows.
渣打併不認爲中國內地房市整體上出現了價格泡沫，即使深圳、北京、上海等主要城市的房價（相對於工資）已漲至令人難以忍受的水平。
Instead, Mr Ahmed argues that the ready availability of land has generated a bubble in house building, creating serious oversupply, especially in tier three and tier four cities, many of which saw a building boom between 2011 and 2013.
艾哈邁德認爲，土地易得使住宅建設環節產生了泡沫，造成了嚴重的供過於求，尤其是在三、四線城市，其中許多城市在2011年至2013年間出現了建設熱潮。
Housing starts have since fallen by 28 per cent, but StanChart estimates that the excess inventory of unsold properties stands at 9m, while a further 40m-50m homes are being held vacant as investments.
自2013年以來，住宅開工率下降了28%，但渣打估計，未售房屋的過剩庫存高達900萬套，同時還有4000萬至5000萬套房屋因被作爲投資之用而處於空置狀態。
Against this backdrop, the bank believes housing starts will fall a little further, before stabilising, as the excess inventory is worked through.
在這一背景下，渣打認爲，由於要消化過剩庫存，住房開工率在企穩前將進一步下滑。
Longer term, Mr Ahmed is more upbeat, however. Given continuing urbanisation, rising incomes and the potential relaxation of the hukou household registration system, he believes demand will rise by 175m homes by 2030, opening the door to construction of around 150m new properties.
然而，長遠來看，艾哈邁德更爲樂觀。考慮到持續的城鎮化、收入提高以及戶籍制度有可能放寬，他認爲，到2030年將新增1.75億套住房需求，所以有空間再新建約1.5億套住宅。
Other analysts have a guarded view of the Chinese residential property sector, in the short to medium term at least.
其他分析師則對中國住宅市場持謹慎態度——至少在短期至中期內。
John-Paul Smith, partner at Ecstrat, an investment advisory firm, in his outlook for 2016, argues that inventory levels “remain too high through most of the country for a sustainable increase in housing starts and land sales”.
投資諮詢公司Ecstrat合夥人約翰-保羅史密斯(John-Paul Smith)在2016年展望報告中稱，庫存水平“在全國大部分地區仍處於過高水平，不會推動住宅開工率和土地出讓持續上升”。
Prakash Sakpal, Asian economist at ING, believes that housing starts will rise in 2016 as more Chinese cities report higher prices (39 out of 70 in September, up from zero a year earlier).
荷蘭國際集團(ING)的亞洲經濟學家普拉卡什薩克帕爾(Prakash Sakpal)認爲，隨着更多中國城市的房價上漲（今年9月70個城市中有30個出現上漲，而一年前房價上漲的城市數量爲零），2016年住宅開工率將提高。
Nevertheless, Mr Sakpal, who argues that prospects for a broader turnround in growth depend on the housing market, fears real estate will remain the “weakest component” of fixed asset investment next year, despite his forecast uptick.
薩克帕爾認爲，經濟增長能否出現整體好轉要看住房市場，他擔心房地產行業仍將是明年固定資產投資中的“最疲弱部分”，儘管他預測房地產投資會出現提升。
Chang Liu and Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economists at Capital Economics, point out that average mortgage rates fell by 143 basis points between November 2014, when the People’s Bank started easing monetary policy, and the end of June, and are likely to have fallen further after a 25bp rate cut in August.
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的兩位中國經濟學家劉暢和朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，從2014年11月央行開始放鬆貨幣政策，至今年6月底期間，抵押貸款平均利率下降了143個基點，而且，繼8月降息25個基點後，利率很可能會進一步下調。
Sales data from developers suggest price growth has picked up too, they say, but “stable” future demand and the “glut” of unsold properties mean the market is likely to remain subdued.
開發商的銷售數據顯示，房價上漲也有所加快，但“穩定”的未來需求和“過剩的”未售房屋意味着住宅市場很可能仍將處於低迷狀態。
In neighbouring Hong Kong, where house prices have risen 190 per cent since 2008, as the second and third charts show, StanChart says the residential market “meets almost all our criteria for a bubble” including high valuations, rising indebtedness, a “new element” driving prices (mainland Chinese buyers), “avid” media and public attention and very easy monetary policy.
如第二和第三幅圖所示，香港房價自2008年以來上漲了190%。渣打銀行表示香港住宅市場“幾乎符合我們對泡沫的所有標準”，包括估值過高、債務攀升、出現拉動價格的“新元素”（內地買家）、“熱心”的媒體和公衆關注，以及非常寬鬆的貨幣政策。
Yet the bank does not anticipate a fall in property prices anywhere near as severe as the 65 per cent slump witnessed during the Asian financial crises of 1997-98.
但渣打銀行預計香港房價下滑絕不會像1997到1998年亞洲金融危機期間那麼嚴重，當時房價下跌了65%。
Instead, Mr Ahmed foresees a “manageable” correction of 10-20 per cent over the next two to three years, given “strong” economic fundamentals and an expectation that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates by less than 100bp during 2016 and 2017, an important consideration in a territory that is forced to import US monetary policy in order to maintain its currency peg.
相反，艾哈邁德預計未來兩到三年內香港樓價會有10%到20%的“可控”修正，原因包括“強勁的”經濟基本面，以及預計美聯儲在2016至2017年間加息幅度將低於100個基點——對於一個被迫輸入美國貨幣政策以維持本幣與美元聯繫匯率的地區來說，後者是一個很重要的因素。
In Singapore, house prices have already fallen 8 per cent since 2013 as the central bank has tightened lending policies and immigration has slowed.
在新加坡，自2013年起，隨着新加坡央行收緊放貸政策，移民增速放緩，房價已下跌了8%。
Compared with Hong Kong, Mr Ahmed is more relaxed about a potential bubble in Singapore, given that valuations are less stretched and that the market is less vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown or faster-than-expected US monetary tightening.
與香港相比，艾哈邁德認爲新加坡出現泡沫的可能性更低，因爲其估值沒有那麼高，而且該市場較不受中國經濟放緩或美國可能比預期更早加息的影響。
Nevertheless, he sees Singaporean property prices falling a further 10 per cent.
不過他認爲新加坡房價還會再跌10%。
The International Monetary Fund has estimated that a 10 per cent fall in house prices in Asia has typically reduced GDP growth by 2.5 percentage points.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計，在亞洲，房價下跌10%通常會將GDP增長率拉低2.5個百分點。
However, StanChart does not believe this will prove the case in Hong Kong or Singapore this time around.
但渣打銀行並不認爲這一次香港或新加坡會出現上述情況。
“In our view the effects are likely non-linear so a moderate fall in house prices has proportionally less impact on GDP than a larger fall,” Mr Ahmed says. “This is one reason we believe the moderate declines in prices we expect in Hong Kong and Singapore will not cause a recession.”
艾哈邁德表示：“我們認爲房價變動對GDP的影響可能是非線性的，溫和下滑只會造成較小影響。這也是我們認爲香港和新加坡房價溫和下跌不會引起經濟衰退的原因之一。”
