肯德基,麥當勞等百勝餐飲在中國麻煩不斷

Yum Brands' China flu might be difficult to shake.

百勝餐飲集團(Yum Brands)在中國患上的流感恐怕沒這麼容易好。

The fast-food giant reported a 41% year-on-year fall in operating profit at its China division in the first quarter, contributing to an 8% fall in earnings per share. Much of the blame goes to negative publicity on food safety following reports in the Chinese media at the end of 2012 of excessive use of antibiotics by the firm's suppliers.

這家快餐業巨頭公佈今年一季度中國市場營業利潤同比下滑41%，這是導致其每股盈利下降8%的原因之一。造成這一現象的主要原因是，去年年末中國媒體報道了其供應商過度使用抗生素的情況，之後該公司成爲食品安全問題的曝光對象。

The feathers from that scandal have settled. But an outbreak of avian flu in China's Yangtze River Delta means Yum's problems are not yet over. Avian flu is not transmitted through properly cooked meat, but Yum's KFC still suffers from guilt by association. Management expects China same-store sales to decline 30% year-on-year in April, worse than the 20% fall in the first quarter.

這宗醜聞引發的餘波已經消失。但中國長三角地區爆發的禽流感意味着百勝的問題尚未結束。禽流感病毒無法在煮熟的禽肉裏存活，但百勝餐飲旗下的肯德基仍然受到株連。公司管理層預計今年4月中國同店銷售額同比下降30%，比一季度同比20%的降幅更糟。

Two food safety crises in quick succession are a reminder that operating in China's fast-food sector is a risky business. China's agricultural sector is fragmented, with millions of small farmers─fertile ground for food-safety problems. Insulating against the risks is expensive and no guarantee that problems can be avoided. The beady eye of China's state media can amplify problems.

兩起食品安全危機相繼發生則在提醒我們，在中國經營快餐業是有風險的。中國農業部門較爲分散，擁有數百萬小農戶，這是引發食品安全問題的“沃土”。隔絕風險的代價高昂，且無法保證所有問題都能避免。中國官方媒體目光銳利，能夠放大很多問題。

A sharp rise in competition adds to Yum's ailments. Yum's sticking with plans to add 700 new stores in China this year, on top of the 5,726 it already has. But McDonald's is also planning to add more than 300 restaurants in 2013. Yum still outnumbers its rivals, but in some malls it now finds itself jostling for space with McDonald's, Subway and cheaper Chinese outlets.

競爭迅速加劇也是百勝餐飲境況不佳的原因之一。百勝餐飲仍然堅持原定計劃，打算今年在中國增加700家新店，其目前已經擁有5,726家門店。但麥當勞(McDonald's)也計劃今年在華新開逾300家餐廳。在餐廳數量上百勝仍然超過對手，但在一些商場百勝發現自己與麥當勞、賽百味(Subway)和其它更便宜的中國餐廳競爭空間。

Last year's food safety scandal triggered a bout of nausea for investors, with Yum's share price falling 9.9% on a single day at the end of November. Worries over bird flu have so far had little impact. But if Yum's China complaints are chronic rather than acute, the share price could have further to fall.

去年的食品安全醜聞讓投資者倒了胃口，在11月末的一個交易日百勝餐飲股價下跌9.9%。消費者對禽流感的擔心迄今爲止對百勝幾乎沒有影響。但如果百勝在中國遇到的問題是慢性的而不是急性的，那麼其股價可能還有進一步下跌的空間。