年股市崩盤的概率有多大(1)

Yes, 2014 is an absolute total disaster just waiting to ignite. In 'Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end' we analyzed 10 major crash warnings since early this year. Since then, more incoming bogies raced across our radar screen. Ticking time bombs from Congress, the Supreme Court, sex, carbon emissions, Big Oil, NSA, IRS, Tea Party austerity. Relentless. Mind-numbing.

不錯，2014年完全是一場災難，只等着引爆。在《年內股市崩盤的概率有多大？》(Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end)一文中，我們分析了今年年初以來的10大崩盤徵兆。之後，我們又不斷髮現了更多新的妖魔。它們有如嘀嗒作響的定時炸彈，來自國會、最高法院、性問題、碳排放、石油巨頭、國家安全局(NSA)、國稅局(IRS)、茶黨式財政緊縮。接踵而至，讓人無法招架。

So many are tuning out. Denial. Truth is, bubbles are everywhere. Ready to blow. The evidence is accelerating, with only one obvious conclusion: Max 98% risk at a flashpoint. This 2014 crash is virtually guaranteed. There's but a narrow 2% chance of dodging this bullet.

那麼多的人視而不見，不承認事實。真相是泡沫無處不在，隨時準備爆掉。證據越來越多，結論只有顯而易見的一個：泡沫破滅的風險最高可達98%。2014年這次崩盤幾乎是鐵定要發生的，躲過這枚子彈的概率只有區區2%。

Here are the 10 bogies, drones targeting markets, stocks, bonds and the, global economy:

以下10種妖魔就像無人機一樣，瞄準了股市、債市和世界經濟：

1. Bubble With No Name Yet triggers the biggest crash in 30 years

1. “暫時沒有名字的泡沫”引發30年來的最大規模崩盤

All three of the big worldwide financial bubbles that have blow up in the last three decades have 'been fueled by the Fed keeping policy rates below the nominal growth rate of the economy far too long, ' says global strategist Kit Juckes of the French bank Societe Generale.

法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)國際策略師基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)說，過去30年破滅的三個世界級金融大泡沫背後，都是“美聯儲(Fed)太久時間將政策利率維持在名義經濟增長率之下”。

The three bubbles: The Asian Bubble in the early '90s, Dot-com Bubble of the late '90s and what Juckes calls the Great Big Credit Bubble that triggered the 2008 Wall Street meltdown.

三個泡沫分別是：20世紀90年代初的亞洲泡沫，90年代晚期的互聯網泡沫，以及在2008年引起華爾街崩盤的那次泡沫，朱克斯稱之爲“信貸大泡沫”(Great Big Credit Bubble)。

Juckes warns that we're now trapped in the fourth megabubble fueled by the Federal Reserve in the last 30 years, since the rise of conservative economics. He calls this one, the Bubble With No Name Yet. OK, we invite you to send in your nomination to name the new bubble. But whatever you call it, do it fast, it's close to popping, like the Asian, Dot-com and Credit crashes the last 30 years.

朱克斯提醒，我們目前正處於第四次超級大泡沫之中，它是美聯儲在保守經濟學興起以來的30年時間裏吹起來的。他將這個泡沫稱爲“暫時沒有名字的泡沫”(Bubble With No Name Yet)。好，大家來給這個新泡沫命名吧。但不管你叫它什麼，都要快點起名，因爲它馬上就要爆了，就像過去30年相繼破滅的亞洲泡沫、互聯網泡沫和信貸泡沫一樣。

2. Marc Faber's Doomsday warning on Bernanke's disastrous QE scheme

2. 麥嘉華對貝南克災難性QE計劃的末日警告

Faber laughs at Bernanke's remark that the economy would be strong enough later this year so he could take his foot off the gas, that is begin 'tapering, or scaling back it's stimulative quantitative easing (QE) program later this year.' Yes, laughed.

貝南克(Bernanke)說今年晚些時候的經濟將會走強，所以到時候他可以鬆開油門，也就是“在今年晚些時候開始減弱刺激性的量化寬鬆(QE)計劃”。對此麥嘉華(Marc Faber)笑了。沒錯，他笑了。

According to , 'embracing hyperbole, ' Faber 'suggested that QE would basically be a part of everyday life for the rest of our lives, ' adding that back in 2010 in the early days of Bernanke's disastrous experiment, Faber warned 'the Fed's headed for QE99.'

據報道，麥嘉華誇張地說，“QE基本上會成爲我們下半輩子日常生活的一部分”。麥嘉華還說，2010年在貝南克災難性試驗的早期階段，他曾給出“美聯儲奔向QE99”的警告。

3. Economy is already crashing, GDP will get even worse in 2014-2016

3. 經濟已經在崩潰，2014年到2016年的GDP將會更加難看

Over at Huffington Post Mark Gongloff warns: That 'dramatic downgrade of U.S. economic growth in the first quarter revealed the economy's lingering weakness, exposed the folly of Washington's austerity obsession and slapped the Federal Reserve's newfound optimism right in the face.' And with politics deteriorating, it'll get worse.

馬克•高恩洛夫(Mark Gongloff)在《赫芬頓郵報》(Huffington Post)上警告說：“一季度美國經濟增長的大幅降級揭示了經濟體揮之不去的疲弱，暴露了華盛頓執迷於財政緊縮的愚蠢，並給美聯儲最新的樂觀打了一記響亮的耳光。”而隨着政治局勢的惡化，增長速度還會進一步放緩。

Gongloff piles on the bad news about 2014: GDP 'grew at a 1.8% annualized pace in the first quarter ... revising down its earlier estimate of 2.4% growth ... The first quarter's dismal growth was at least better than the 0.4% GDP growth of the fourth quarter of 2012. But it was still far from healthy, and economists don't see it getting much stronger any time soon.' And that's real bad news for the markets going into 2014.

高恩洛夫羅列出一長串有關2014年的壞消息：“2013年一季度GDP年化增長速度爲1.8%……向下修正了早前增長2.4%的估計……一季度的慘淡增長至少好於2012年四季度GDP 0.4%的增長，但離健康的增長仍然差了很多，經濟學家預計短時間內也不會好到哪裏去。”對進入2014年的市場來說，這是實打實的壞消息。

4. Precious metals: 'Going dark! Economic cycles point downward'

4. 貴金屬：“都在玩消失！經濟週期下行”

That's the headline flashing red warnings. After reviewing 20 cycles tracked by 20 other experts, concluded: 'There are many cycles that suggest a stock-market correction or crash is near ... Preparation is important. You still have a little time remaining before the 'window' closes!'

的這個標題發出了紅色警報。在評估另外20名專家跟蹤的20種週期之後，它總結道：“很多週期表明股市的調整或崩潰已經臨近……未雨綢繆是很重要的。在‘窗口’關閉之前，你仍有一些時間！”

Traders heading for the exits: 'Unsustainable trends can survive much longer than most people anticipate, but they do end when their 'time is up, at the culmination of their time cycles.' They analyzed more than 20 cycles: 'Nearly unanimously point to tectonic shifts in the months and years ahead.'

交易員們紛紛退出：“不可持續趨勢苟延殘喘的時間可以遠超多數人的預期，但時候一到，在週期的頂點，它們還是會結束。”他們分析了20多種週期，“差不多無一意外地預示未來數月、數年將發生地殼運動”。

Yes, they hedge on the timing but the ticking time bombs are loud, close. And 'the precious-metals crash, starting in April of 2013, was the first warning of what is coming globally.'

是的，在具體時間問題上它們給不出答案，但定時炸彈的嘀嗒聲很響、很近。“始於2013年4月份的貴金屬崩盤，是全世界即將發生的情況的第一個警告信號。”

5. Gross warns: 'Ponzi Scheme! Tipping Point! Credit Supernova!'

5. 格羅斯警告：“龐氏騙局！臨界點！信貸超新星！”

Bond King Bill Gross admits, 'QE must end.' Trillions of cheap money 'has distorted incentives and inflated asset prices to artificial levels.' But now Gross says 'the Fed plan may be too hasty.'

債券大王比爾•格羅斯(Bill Gross)承認：“QE必須結束。”數萬億的低成本資金“扭曲了激勵機制，將資產價格推高至人爲水平”。但現在格羅斯說“美聯儲的計劃可能過於倉促了”。

What? Hasn't his firm made enough money off Bernanke's cheap money printing? So he's blaming 'lower growth on fiscal austerity, ' even as Bernanke keeps blowing up the Fed's balance-sheet bubble by trillions under the delusion he's America's savior because our dysfunctional Congress failed?

什麼？他的公司利用貝南克印刷的低息鈔票還沒賺夠？於是他將“增長速度降低”歸咎於“財政緊縮”？就在貝南克錯以爲國會失靈、他纔是美國的救星，所以繼續以數萬億的規模吹脹美聯儲資產負債表泡沫的時候？

Gross shifts, makes no sense: Just four months ago he warned the Fed is blowing a Credit Supernova, a new monetary bubble that would implode Bernanke's arrogant risky experiment putting America's future at great risk by bankrolling a Wall Street Ponzi Scheme and blowing a huge financial bubble.

格羅斯出爾反爾，不可理喻：四個月前他還警告說美聯儲正在構造一顆信貸超新星、一個新的信貸泡沫，這個泡沫將擊垮貝南克資助華爾街龐氏騙局、吹起一個巨大金融泡沫、進而將美國之未來置於巨大風險之下的自負的、高風險的實驗。