FT社評 準備迎接油價動盪的時代

The oil price may be falling and global demand is “remarkably” subdued, according to a report last week from the International Energy Agency. But this has not stopped the former chief executive of BP, Tony Hayward, from issuing an uncomfortable warning.

國際能源署(International Energy Agency)上週發佈的一份報告顯示，全球石油需求“明顯”下滑，油價也在下跌。但這並不能阻止英國石油(BP)前首席執行官唐熙華(Tony Hayward)發出了令人不安的警告。

In an interview with the FT, Mr Hayward, who these days runs an oil company in Iraqi Kurdistan, worries that international sanctions against Russia’s oil sector are storing up trouble for the west. They risk cutting investment and damaging supplies from the world’s third-largest producer. The threat may have been masked by increases in American liquid petroleum production, which has surged above its 1970 zenith. But the US may not go on rising for ever, Mr Hayward notes. And when that happens, where will the world find its next new source of supply?

唐熙華目前管理着伊拉克庫爾德斯坦的一家石油公司。在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時，他表示，國際社會針對俄羅斯石油行業的制裁正在給西方埋下越來越多隱患。這些制裁可能會削減這個全球第三大產油國的得到的投資並破壞其供應。這一威脅可能已被美國液態石油產量增加所掩蓋——美國的液態石油產量已飆升至超過上世紀70年代峯值的水平，但唐熙華指出，美國的產量可能不會永遠增長下去。到那時，全球將在哪裏找到下一個新的供應源？

It is a good question. Producing oil has become harder both for reasons of geology and politics; a crude price stuck around $100 per barrel is evidence enough. It may become harder still. Talk about an “age of abundance” is justified only from a North American perspective. Elsewhere it is a different story: one of decline in fading regions such as the North Sea, and political and security threats in countries from Iraq to Iran and Venezuela. Since 2005, all of the increase in the world’s crude production has come from the US.

這是一個好問題。由於地質和政治原因，石油生產變得更加困難；原油價格徘徊在每桶100美元左右就足以說明問題。未來難度可能會變得更大。有一種我們身處“富足時代”的說法，但其合理性只是從北美的角度而言。在其他地區則是另一番情景：北海等地區產量日益衰落，從伊拉克到伊朗和委內瑞拉等多國面臨政治和安全威脅。自2005年以來，全球原油產量的增量都來自美國。

Looking ahead a few years, nothing is likely to change. Global oil demand will continue to go up over the long term as the emerging economies become steadily wealthier. Supply, however, will not rise in lockstep. The IEA predicted last year that over 2012-18 the largest contributors of new supplies to world markets, after the US and Canada, would be Iraq and Brazil. But companies in Brazil are struggling with the technical challenges of its deepwater fields and political interference. Iraq is in chaos. Neither country can be relied upon.

未來幾年，一切可能都不會改變。長期而言，隨着新興市場的不斷富有，全球石油需求將繼續上漲。然而，供應不會隨之增加。國際能源署去年預測，2012年至2018年，除美國和加拿大以外，全球市場新供應的最大貢獻者將是伊拉克和巴西。但巴西企業正艱難應對深水油田的技術挑戰和政治干預。伊拉克仍身陷混亂。這兩個國家都沒法依賴。

Mr Hayward is right to worry about security of supply. Fortunately, however, the developed world need not panic quite yet. The new sanctions on Russia will take time to bite. They do not yank existing barrels off the market. Rather, they make it harder for Russia to develop shale or push out the frontiers of exploration into the Arctic – activity that will only drive production some years in the future. The risk that Mr Hayward identifies is more akin to a slow-moving ratchet than a 1973-style sudden price spike. The west has time to plot its response.

唐熙華對供應安全的擔憂是正確的。然而，幸運的是，發達國家現在還不需要那麼恐慌。針對俄羅斯的新制裁將需要時間產生影響。這些制裁不會將現有的石油從市場撤走，而是將令俄羅斯更難開發頁岩資源，或者將勘探前沿推進至北極地區，而俄羅斯頁岩開發和北極勘探都只是提升未來石油產量的活動。唐熙華眼中的風險更類似於一種緩慢的惡化，而非1973年那種突然的價格飆升。西方有時間計劃其應對措施。

For consuming countries, that means doing what they can to strengthen their own production and infrastructure. The US, for example, should approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada, and help its oil industry by allowing exports of crude. Governments must ensure they do not throttle their industries with excessive taxation.

對於石油消費國而言，這意味着盡其所能增強本國的產量和基礎設施。例如，美國應批准加拿大Keystone XL石油管道的建設，並允許原油出口，助力其石油業。政府必須確保他們不會通過過高的稅收遏制本國石油行業。

Abroad, the US should do more to help the development of alternative sources of supply – including the shale reserves of countries such as China and Argentina. Diplomatically, the answer is clearly not to appease Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and thus leave his conduct in Ukraine unchallenged. But Washington and its allies should try harder to stabilise failing producing states, such as Libya and Iraq.

在海外，美國應採取更多措施幫助開發替代供應來源，包括中國和阿根廷等國的頁岩儲備。從外交上來說，安撫俄羅斯領導人弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)，對其在烏克蘭的行爲睜一眼閉一眼，顯然不是正確的做法。但美國及其盟友應更努力地穩定利比亞和伊拉克等產量正在衰退的產油國。

Consumers must be encouraged to use oil more thriftily – either through higher taxes or regulations enforcing fuel efficiency. Fuel subsidies must be cut – especially in the Middle East and Asia. Lastly, governments should continue the search for alternatives, whether biofuels or electric vehicles.

我們必須鼓勵消費者在使用石油方面更爲節儉，要麼通過提高稅收，要麼執行燃油效率方面的監管要求。必須削減燃油補貼，特別是在中東和亞洲。最後，政府應繼續尋找替代能源方案，不管是生物燃料還是電動汽車。

We have been living through a period of calm in oil markets, in spite of the Arab uprisings and the turmoil in Ukraine. This will not last for ever. A wise world would plan ahead.

儘管阿拉伯爆發暴動，烏克蘭也出現動盪，但我們一直生活在石油市場的平靜期。這種狀況不會永遠持續下去。明智的世界會未雨綢繆。