準備迎接第二個特別世紀 Prepare for the dawn of a second special century

The thesis of Robert Gordon’s magisterial book The Rise and Fall of American Growth, stands in sharp contrast to the technological optimism that bubbles out of Silicon Valley. The argument is that the years from 1870 to 1970 were the “special century”. Someone born when Benjamin Disraeli was prime minister and who lived to see Edward Heath in Downing Street would have witnessed horse-drawn transport give way to cars and aircraft. Born when medical services were largely useless, she would have seen cures found for most infectious diseases and experienced the introduction of electric light, indoor plumbing and colour television.

羅伯特•戈登(Robert Gordon)權威著作《美國增長的起落》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)的論點與硅谷迸發出的科技樂觀主義形成鮮明對照。本書認爲，1870年至1970年是一個“特別世紀”。在本傑明•迪斯雷利(Benjamin Disraeli)擔任英國首相時出生、並在有生之年看到愛德華•希斯(Edward Heath)入主唐寧街的人，見證了馬拉交通被汽車和飛機取代。出生於醫療服務基本無用時的她，見證了多數傳染病治療方法的發現，並經歷了電燈、室內下水管道以及彩電的誕生。

The past 50 years, according to Professor Gordon, have been “dazzling but disappointing”. We are dazzled because our attention is focused on advances in entertainment, communications and information technology. The disappointment is partly statistical — productivity growth has slowed. And looking beyond the field of IT, he argues, there have been no advances in materials, fuel technologies or food production and distribution comparable to those of the special century.

戈登教授認爲，過去50年讓人“眼花繚亂，但令人失望”。我們之所以感到眼花繚亂是因爲我們的注意力集中在娛樂、通信和信息技術(IT)的發展。失望在一定程度上是統計上的：生產率增速放緩。他認爲，除了IT，原材料、燃料技術或食品生產以及分銷都沒有出現與“特別世紀”可比的進步。

Boeing’s first 747 flew in 1969, and today’s jumbo jets are recognisably similar. The great blockbuster drugs have, it seems, already been discovered. While US productivity enjoyed a spurt in the 1990s, as digital innovations transformed our lives, the special century is unlikely to be repeated. Given an ageing population and an inadequate educational system, a significant increase in American living standards should not be expected.

波音(Boeing)首架747飛機於1969年升空，今天的大型噴氣式客機仍然與它類似。偉大的轟動性藥物似乎已被發現完了。儘管隨着數字創新改變我們的生活，美國生產率曾經在上世紀90年代出現井噴，但“特別世紀”不太可能重現。鑑於人口老齡化和教育體制不完善，預計美國的生活水平不會顯著上升。

Progress in introducing robotics into service activities is “glacially slow”, observes Prof Gordon. Amazon employs product pickers; delivery drivers still mostly load and unload their trucks manually. Sceptical of driverless cars, he asks what commuters will actually do with the time they do not have to spend behind the wheel. His scepticism will no doubt have been compounded by a recent accident involving one of Google’s driverless cars.

戈登教授認爲，將機器人引入服務業方面的進展“極度緩慢”。亞馬遜(Amazon)仍聘用產品挑選師；送貨司機多數仍手動裝貨和卸貨。他對無人駕駛汽車持懷疑態度，他問道，如果通勤者不需要自己駕駛，那這段時間裏他們究竟會做什麼。最近谷歌(Google)一輛無人駕駛汽車捲入的事故肯定會加深他的疑慮。

Yet, if not much seems to have happened, it is perhaps because we see that much is yet to come. No great effort of imagination is required to visualise machines that unload casks of beer or stack supermarket shelves. And if we trust robots to undertake surgery, why should they not offer pedicures or cut hair as people become more expensive and machines cheaper? Perhaps the future of progress lies in the application of IT to things that do not at first sight have much to do with it.

然而，如果情況似乎沒有發生很大的變化，那或許是因爲我們認爲未來將發生很大變化。我們不需要努力想象就能設想出機器卸下啤酒桶或把貨物放到超市貨架上的場景。如果我們信任機器人做手術，在人工更爲昂貴而機器更爲廉價之際，爲什麼不讓機器人來提供足療或理髮服務？或許未來的進步在於將IT應用於那些乍一看與IT沒有多大關係的事物。

Such opportunities are of two kinds. Computers can now replace human operatives in well-defined repetitive tasks. Examples include the computerised conveyancer, the robo-adviser as portfolio manager and the digital doctor. Many traditional middle-class occupations will be eliminated in this way.

這些機會有兩種。電腦現在可以在定義明確的重複性工作中取代人類。例如，電腦化的產權轉讓律師、機器人顧問（如資產組合經理）和數字醫生。很多傳統的中產階級職業將因此被淘汰。

The more subtle, and perhaps more profound, development is the capacity of digital processing to aid the discovery of things that will form the basis of new technologies. Gene sequencing and big data are likely to shape the future of medicine. Progress in battery technology is advancing by leaps and bounds thanks to the analytic capabilities in the hands of today’s researchers. If the world became wired in the “special century”, perhaps it will become wireless in the next.

更微妙而且或許更深遠的發展是，數字處理能力將協助構成未來新技術基礎的事物的發現。基因測序和大數據可能會改變藥物的未來。得益於當今研究人員掌握的分析能力，電池技術的發展突飛猛進。如果說世界在“特別世紀”實現了有線連接，那麼在下一個“特別世紀”世界或許將實現無線連接。

And do not underestimate the increasing speed at which innovations are adopted. Benjamin Franklin discovered electricity in 1752 and Richard Trevithick’s car, the Puffing Devil, took to the roads of Cornwall in 1801. But it was only towards the end of the special century that electricity and cars were available to most households. The first smartphone was sold in 2007 and today 1.5bn are in use.

不要低估創新得到採用的日益加快的速度。本傑明•富蘭克林(Benjamin Franklin)在1752年發現了電，理查德•特里維西克(Richard Trevithick)製造的蒸汽機車Puffing Devil於1801年在康沃爾郡上路。但直到“特別世紀”快結束時，電和汽車才進入千家萬戶。而第一部智能手機於2007年上市，如今已有15億用戶。

The limits to productivity growth are set only by the limits to human inventiveness.

生產率增長的極限只取決於人類創造力的極限。