撤資運動 無益根治氣候難題

It takes some variety of wilful ignorance to dismiss the need for action to avert the threat of climate change.

只有某些故意愚昧的人，纔會認爲針對氣候變化威脅採取行動是沒有必要的。

From imaginings of vast conspiracies to complacency that global warming can only be benign, the arguments against taking the danger seriously are rooted in a refusal to face reality. The climate is a complex system, of course, and forecasting it fraught with uncertainty. But the evidence is strong enough to make it clear that the risk of catastrophe cannot be dismissed.

反對嚴肅應對氣候變化威脅的觀點各式各樣，從各種大陰謀論，到滿不在乎地認爲全球變暖可能沒什麼大不了的，其根源是不願面對現實。當然，氣候是個複雜的系統，對氣候進行預測也充滿了不確定性。但已有足夠充分的證據表明，發生氣候災難的風險不容忽視。

Yet advocates of action on climate change often display their own varieties of irrationality. The campaign for universities, charities, local governments and others to sell their holdings in fossil fuel companies, which has been gathering momentum in recent years, is a case in point.

然而，主張就氣候變化採取行動的人往往也表現出他們自身的種種不理性。一個例子是撤資運動(divestment campaign)，這場運動呼籲大學、慈善機構、地方政府、其他組織和個人出售所持化石燃料企業股份，其聲勢近年來不斷增強。

The campaigners’ zeal is understandable. The potential consequences of unrestrained fossil fuel development are alarming, and if you are looking for someone to blame, the oil, gas and coal industries are an obvious target.

撤資運動人士的熱忱可以理解。不受限制的化石燃料開發可能導致的後果令人擔心，如果你試圖就此責備誰，那麼石油、天然氣和煤炭行業是明擺着的靶子。

By focusing on divestment, however, the campaigners are channelling their efforts into an issue that is largely irrelevant to the ultimate objective of minimising the threat of climate change.

然而，我們最終的目標是要最大程度降低氣候變化威脅，撤資運動人士一門心思呼籲人們出售上述企業的股票，是把力氣使到了一個基本無關這個最終目標的問題上。

The financial impact of divestment is likely to be negligible. If charities sell their holdings in fossil fuel companies, other investors will buy them. If enough funds sell, the shares may fall, raising the companies’ cost of capital, but evidence from the divestment campaign over South Africa suggests the effect is unlikely to be large.

撤資的經濟影響很可能微乎其微。如果慈善機構出售所持化石燃料企業股份，那麼其他投資者會接盤。如果賣盤足夠多，股價可能會下降，從而提高這些企業的資金成本，但南非撤資運動的經驗證明，這種做法不太可能取得很大效果。

Divestment campaigners often say their objective is not so much financial as symbolic: they want to send a signal that fossil fuels are morally unacceptable. It is hard to see, however, how the world can be persuaded to shun voluntarily the source of more than 80 per cent of its energy. Fossil fuels offer enormous benefits as well as great risks, and their role in sustaining standards of living worldwide is for the time being irreplaceable.

撤資運動人士往往說，他們的目標更多是象徵性的、而非經濟上的：他們希望傳遞一個訊號，即化石燃料在道德上是不可接受的。然而，化石燃料佔世界能源使用量的80%以上，很難想象他們如何能說服全世界主動棄用化石燃料。化石燃料帶來了巨大的益處，也造成了巨大的風險，就目前而言，化石燃料在維持全世界民衆生活水準方面發揮的作用仍是不可替代的。

Nor is it reasonable to expect fossil fuel companies to be the pioneers of the transition to other sources of energy; they have tried that many times in the past, always with disappointing results. The real advances recently in low-carbon energy, such as the plunging cost of solar power systems and progress in battery technology, have all come from outside the fossil fuel industries.

期待化石燃料企業充當向新能源轉型的先鋒也是不理智的。這些企業過去已嘗試過那麼多次，每次的結果都令人失望。低碳能源領域最近取得的實質性進步，比如太陽能發電系統成本的大幅下降以及電池技術取得的進展，都來自化石燃料行業以外。

It is true that as the world shifts away from high-carbon energy, the oil, gas and coal companies will become less attractive investments, but shareholders can take their own views about the timing and consequences of that transition. Divestment should be seen as an outcome, not an instrument.

沒錯，世界在逐步改用高碳能源以外的能源，這會使得石油、天然氣和煤炭企業的投資吸引力下降，但持股人對這種轉變的時機和後果可以擁有自己的看法。撤資應該被視爲一種結果，而非一種手段。

If global greenhouse gas emissions are to be brought under control, governments will have to play a central role. That does not mean the state takeover of the economy sometimes imagined by climate sceptics, but there will have to be a framework, including taxes and other incentives, that changes the behaviour of both businesses and consumers.

如果想控制住全球溫室氣體排放，各國政府就必須發揮核心作用。這並不意味着如氣候變化懷疑論者有時想象的那樣，由國家來接管經濟，而是意味着要建立一個包含稅收激勵和其他激勵的框架，以改變企業和消費者的行爲。

A genuine solution to the threat of climate change will require a price on greenhouse gas emissions, greater investment in energy innovation, switching from coal to gas to power generation, cost-effective means of storing carbon dioxide, and a global framework that encourages all the countries of the world to participate. Divestment helps with none of those.

要真正化解氣候變化威脅，就必須對溫室氣體排放定價，加大能源創新投資，從使用煤炭發電改爲使用天然氣發電，找到划算的二氧化碳儲存辦法，建立一個全球性框架、以鼓勵世界各國參與。撤資對這些都沒有幫助。

At best, the divestment campaign will encourage a wider debate about those practical measures that are needed. At worst it will fool people, including the campaigners themselves, into believing that something significant is being achieved.

在最好的情況下，撤資運動會鼓勵人們對有必要採取的那些切實措施展開更廣泛的辯論。在最差的情況下，撤資運動會讓民衆（包括撤資運動人士自己）產生一種錯覺，以爲抗擊氣候變化之戰正在取得什麼重大的成果。