中國煤礦工業衰落 大幅裁員的隱憂

HEGANG, China — In the dank shower room where the miners soak, the coal dust from their bodies staining the water chocolate, a lone worker sat smoking a cigarette, staring at the floor.

中國鶴崗——在陰冷潮溼的淋浴室內，礦工們身體上洗下的煤灰把水染成了巧克力色，一名工人一個人坐着抽菸，眼睛盯着地上。

He lingered, he explained, because since his pay had been cut in half, he had been eating dinner at his parents’ apartment, and he dreaded the humiliation of going there again.

他說想多待會，因爲自從工資被減半，他就一直在父母家吃晚飯，每次去都覺得丟人，不想再過去。

“If any of the leaders would do their job properly, the situation would not be like this,” said the worker, Mr. Guo, 39. “If they want to sack me, they should just do it. Can it get any worse?”

“要是有任何一個領導把自己的工作做好，情況就不會是這樣，”這名姓郭的39歲工人說。“如果他們想開除我，就開除好了。還能比現在更壞？”

It probably will.

可能真的會更糟。

The mine’s owner, the Longmay Group, the biggest coal company in northeastern China, announced in September that it planned to lay off 100,000 workers. The elimination of about 40 percent of the work force at 42 mines in four cities is the biggest reduction in jobs that anyone could recall in this steadily declining rust belt near the Russian border.

這個礦場的所有者龍煤集團是中國東北部最大的煤礦公司。它在9月宣佈，計劃裁掉10萬名員工。在位於四個城市的42座煤礦削減40%的勞動力，是這片靠近俄羅斯邊境、正在逐漸衰落的“鐵鏽地帶”最大規模的一次裁員。

China has managed mass layoffs at creaky, state-owned businesses like Longmay before, averting the threat of strikes and unrest by suppressing protests and offering payouts and job training.

中國一直對龍煤這樣的老舊國企的大規模裁員進行管控，通過壓制抗議行動、提供補償金和工作培訓，避免出現罷工和騷亂的局面。

But that was when the economy was booming and could readily absorb displaced workers. The test the government now faces in this depressed coal town and in other hard-hit areas across the country is whether it can head off labor discontent in a slowing economy.

不過，那是在中國經濟蒸蒸日上的時期，比較容易對下崗工人進行安置。現如今，在這個蕭條的煤礦城鎮和全國其他一些遭受沉重打擊的地區，中國政府面臨的考驗，是能否在經濟放緩之際妥善處理勞工的不滿情緒。

Longmay has so far delayed the bulk of the layoffs, cutting only several hundred older workers who held nonessential jobs. Last month, the government of Heilongjiang Province, which owns Longmay, announced a $600 million bailout that would help the company repay its bonds. But analysts see the infusion as short-term relief that will not prevent the inevitable reckoning.

龍煤集團目前推遲了大部分裁員計劃，只裁掉了幾百名年紀比較大、職位不重要的工人。上個月，龍煤集團所有者黑龍江省政府宣佈，提供38億元人民幣資金，幫助公司償還債券。但多名分析師表示，這類援助只能在短期內緩解問題，無法避免最終的命運。

The coal industry is hurting nationwide, as coal prices have fallen nearly 60 percent since 2011, said Deng Shun, an analyst at ICIS C1 Energy, a consultancy based in Shanghai. And Longmay, he said, produces far less coal with extra workers than newer, more efficient companies.

位於上海的諮詢公司安迅思息旺能源(ICIS C1 Energy)的分析師鄧舜表示，自2011年至今，煤炭價格下降了近60%，全國整個煤炭工業都不好過。他表示，相比於效率更高、更新的煤礦公司，龍煤集團員工更多，但產煤量卻比前者少得多。

“They are quite worried about social unrest, so they delay,” he said. “These layoffs should have happened two years ago.”

“他們非常擔心出現社會動盪，所以就往後延，”他說。“這些裁員兩年前就該進行了。”

Still, there have already been flashes of discontent.

但是，不滿情緒已經開始露頭。

In April, even before the layoffs were announced, thousands marched on the streets of Hegang, a city of about one million, to protest delayed salaries. The organizers were arrested and jailed.

今年4月，龍煤集團還沒有公佈裁員計劃的時候，就有數千人在人口約百萬的鶴崗的街頭遊行，抗議拖欠工資。這次活動的組織者被帶走關了起來。

In October, company management stifled a protest by locking workers in the mines. The police patrolled the streets outside the company headquarters on the day the rally was planned.

到了10月份，企業管理層把工人堵在礦區，以阻止他們舉行抗議活動。在他們計劃進行集會行動那天，警方還在公司總部外的街道上進行巡邏。

A few weeks later, Internet regulators exposed a group of workers discussing a demonstration on an online bulletin board. They were hauled to a police station, fingerprinted and warned that jail sentences would follow if they dared do it again.

幾周後，互聯網監管機構曝光了一羣工人，表示他們曾在網絡論壇上商討舉行示威活動。他們被帶到派出所，取了指紋，並被警告，如果敢再這麼做，就會被判刑。

“We are all on edge, the company is on edge,” Mr. Chen, 27, an organizer of that abortive protest, said over breakfast at a nearly empty restaurant, washing it down with a couple of beers at the end of his night shift. “We don’t know what is going to happen. It all depends on how the company takes care of the laid-off workers.”

“我們緊張，公司更緊張，”27歲的小陳在一家幾乎空無一人的餐館一邊吃早餐一邊說。他是這次夭折的抗議活動的組織者之一。此時，他剛結束晚班工作，就着幾杯啤酒吃完了自己的早餐。“我們不知道以後會發生什麼。完全要看公司怎麼安排下崗工人。”

Like other miners here, he spoke to a foreign reporter on the condition that he be identified only by his surname for fear of reprisal.

和這裏其他礦工一樣，他在接受外國記者採訪時要求只用姓來指代自己，以免遭到報復。

Of greater concern to the government, Hegang is not the only place where tensions with workers are increasing. The number of strikes and labor protests nationwide nearly doubled in the first 11 months of this year, to 2,354, compared with 1,207 in the same period last year, according to China Labor Bulletin, a monitoring group based in Hong Kong. The organization said strikes and worker protests hit a record high of 301 incidents last month.

讓中國政府更加擔憂的是，鶴崗不是唯一一個政府與勞工的關係日益緊張的地方。據位於香港的觀察機構中國勞工通訊(China Labor Bulletin)統計，今年前11個月，中國共有2354次罷工和勞工抗議活動，相比於去年同期的1207次，幾乎翻了一倍。該組織還表示，上個月中國出現了301次此類事件，達到了歷史新高。

The reaction of the demoralized workers is being watched closely because the staying power of the Communist Party has been immutably linked to its ability to deliver continued economic progress. The unwritten social compact here is that the party delivers growth, jobs and higher living standards, and in exchange, the workers acquiesce to its monopoly on power, surrendering the right to organize unions or protest.

沮喪的工人們的反應受到了密切關注，因爲中國共產黨的權力能否持久，總是和它能否持續帶來經濟增長相關聯。這裏有一個不成文的社會契約，即黨帶來經濟增長、工作機會和更高的生活水平，作爲交換，勞工們默許其獨攬大權，放棄組織工會或進行抗議的權利。

That bargain could unravel if workers no longer believe the government is living up to its end.

如果工人認爲政府無法兌現它的承諾，這種約定就有可能解除。

The outward signs of severe economic trouble are evident. For-sale signs hang on the facades of restaurants that draw few customers. Robberies are on the rise: manhole covers and cellphones are popular targets. Women say they have stopped wearing jewelry for fear of being assaulted.

嚴重經濟困境的外在跡象頗爲明顯。顧客寥寥的餐館正面掛着轉讓的牌子。搶劫案件增加：井蓋和手機是常見的目標。女性表示因爲害怕被搶而不再戴珠寶。

Heilongjiang is one of the most depressed provinces in China, and has been for years. Its economic output fell 2.2 percent in the first three quarters of this year compared with the same period last year, without adjusting for inflation, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

黑龍江是中國經濟最不景氣的省份之一，並且這種情況已經持續了多年。從國家統計局的數據來看，今年前三季度，該省未扣除通脹因素的經濟產出同比下降2.2%。

“What you have now is a very, very severe economic situation in one part of the country,” said Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “It is very striking and very unusual.”

“現在我們看到的，是中國的一部分地區經濟形勢非常非常嚴峻，”北京龍洲經訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)中國問題研究總監白安儒(Andrew Batson)說。“這種情況非常驚人，非常不尋常。”

Still, the state-owned mines have been reluctant to cut production because there is little other work here. The first round of layoffs at Longmay, though relatively small, came soon after the September announcement.

然而，國有煤礦不願減產，因爲這裏幾乎沒有其他工作。9月發出通知後不久，龍煤就進行了第一輪裁員，不過規模相對較小。

Older workers in their late 50s were called to an office on the second floor of a disused building. Two young clerks barked orders at men. They were told to sign two-page contracts that pledged a small monthly stipend and vague promises of retraining.

快60歲的員工被叫至一棟廢棄建築二樓的辦公室。兩名年輕的工作人員厲聲向他們下達命令。他們被要求籤署一份兩頁紙的合同。合同承諾每月向他們發放一小筆補貼，並含糊地承諾將爲其提供再培訓。

Mr. Hui, 55, was one of the first. “It was 7 o’clock in the morning,” he recalled. “Our captain came to our changing room after meeting with the leaders. He said: ‘Here is bad news for you guys.’ Then he said, ‘Hui, you are one of those who are above the age limit.’”

55歲的老會便是第一批被裁的員工之一。“當時是早上7點，”他回憶說。“和領導開完會以後，隊長來到我們更衣室。他說：‘夥計們，壞消息來了。’接着他又說，‘老會，你屬於年齡超標的。’”

Mr. Hui said he was crushed. He had worked as a firefighter at the mine for 35 years and expected a pension. He had not been told how much severance pay he would get, he said.

老會說他很傷心。他在礦上當了35年的消防員，本指望着領退休金。他說，沒人告訴他會拿到多少離職補償。

Although his wife, son and daughter-in-law had jobs, he could not make ends meet. “I have been paying the mortgage of my son, and the day-to-day expenditures for our grandson,” he said. “I’m short of cash. I have to work. What else can I do? I want to give my grandson the best education so he can leave this place. There is no future in coal.”

儘管妻子、兒子和兒媳都有工作，他還是入不敷出。“我一直在給兒子還房貸，還有負責孫子的日常花銷，”他說。“缺錢，必須得工作。我還能怎麼辦？我想讓孫子接受最好的教育，這樣才能離開這個地方。煤炭沒有前途。”

The management of the Longmay Group declined to be interviewed. In response to a request to its headquarters in Harbin, the company said, “We are busy planning the reform of the company, and we are not ready to give information to the public.”

龍煤集團的管理層拒絕接受採訪。記者向其設在哈爾濱的總部提出了採訪請求，對方回覆稱，“我們正忙於規劃公司改革，尚未做好向外公佈消息的準備。”

As the region’s population has dwindled in the last decade, the younger people who stayed say they feel trapped. They have few skills to offer to factories in southern China, which in any case no longer hire like they used to. And they are boxed in, they say, by family traditions that expect men to work in the mines.

過去十年裏，隨着該地區人口減少，留下來的年輕人說覺得自己被困住了。他們幾乎沒有可以進入南方工廠的技能，何況那些工廠也不再像過去那樣招聘了。他們說自己被希望男的都去礦上工作的家庭傳統束縛住了。

A 29-year-old mechanic, who declined to be identified, said he loved his job working with precision instruments in one of the mine’s workshops. He had tried to get a job in the port town of Dalian, but his parents forbade him to move, he said.

一名29歲的機修工說，他喜歡在礦上的車間裏和精密儀器打交道的工作。拒絕公開姓名的他表示，自己之前曾嘗試在港口城市大連找工作，但父母不允許他去。

Blinking back tears, he said he depended on his fiancée, who earned a handsome salary as a video editor, and his father, who made more money than he did driving a truck.

他忍着眼淚說，現在自己要靠未婚妻和父親。他的未婚妻是一名視頻編輯，收入不菲。他父親靠開卡車也比他掙得多。

“Most who are still here are like me, they don’t have a way out,” he said. “If the company would pay our salaries on time and in full, the workers would love to work.”

“還留在這裏的大部分人都像我一樣，沒有出路，”他說。“如果公司按時全額發放工資，工人是很願意幹活的。”

One employee, Mr. Cui, 40, a driver, said he had quit rather than wait to be laid off. He hopes to secure a taxi license to augment his severance of $104 a month, which he says is not enough to get by on, much less pay back the $6,000 he borrowed for his wife’s medical bills.

40歲的老崔是一名司機。他說自己不願等着被裁員，於是主動辭職了。他希望能拿到出租車牌照，以便補貼每個月104美元的離職補償。他說補償金還不夠過日子用的，更別說還給妻子看病欠下的6000美元醫藥費了。

When the full brunt of the layoffs comes, the violence could be terrible, he predicted. Since the last economic crisis, in the 1990s, a conspicuous new group had appeared: the owners of recently privatized small mines who drove around in Mercedes-Benzes.

他預測等裁員到了最厲害的時候，會有可怕的暴力事件。90年代的上一次經濟危機之後，出現了一個惹眼的新羣體：被私有化不久的小煤礦的老闆。他們開着梅賽德斯-奔馳四處招搖。

“In the 90s, everyone was poor,” he said. “Now the rich are too rich, and the poor are too poor. Because of the layoffs everyone is worried. No one has a way to live outside the mines. With the New Year holidays coming, there will be chaos in Hegang.”

“90年代，大家都窮，”他說。“現在富的太富，窮的太窮。因爲裁人，大家都提心吊膽。沒人有在除了煤礦以外的地方謀生的路子。馬上過年了，鶴崗肯定要亂。”