美國大批公務員遭裁員導致失業率居高不下

自從2008年金融危機以來，美國的工作崗位大幅下降，不僅僅在住房金融相關的領域，所有的行業領域都大量地減少了工作崗位。之所以近日的就業數據並不難看，有一個不得不提的概念是“勞動參與率”——美國有越來越多的失業者被排除出了失業率統計。

The economy

經濟

Unequal pain

不平等的痛

The public sector is still hobbling the economy。

政府部門還在拖經濟的後腿。

THE fates of the American economy and the presidency of Barack Obama are inextricably linked, and both of them hit a bump in April. The economy added 252,000 jobs each month between December and February, but that rate seems to be slowing. Payrolls rose by just 154,000 in March and by only 115,000 in April. Unemployment dropped in April, from 8.2% to 8.1%， but for the wrong reason: an exodus of some 342,000 workers from the labour force, as people gave up looking for work. On May 8th Mr Obama sent Congress a “to-do list”， asking it for tax incentives and mortgage refinancing in the hope of boosting private job creation. Yet for much of the past two years the biggest source of job losses has been the public sector。

巴拉克·奧巴馬是否能夠連任與美國經濟的命運緊緊相連，而這兩者在四月間都碰到了小小波折。從去年12月起至今年2月，平均每月增加了252,000個工作崗位，但這一增長速度可說是緩慢。今年3月，工資總支出上漲了154,000美元，而4月份僅上漲了115,000美元。失業率在四月份從8.2%降至8.1%，但原因並不光彩：大約342,000位勞動者中的一大批離開了勞動力市場，因爲他們放棄了尋找工作。5月8日，奧巴馬總統遞給國會一張“清單”，希望藉以刺激稅收和減免貸款來促進私營企業創造更多的工作機會。然而，在過去的兩年裏，政府機構纔是裁員最多的地方。

Government payrolls typically swell in economic recoveries, by 5.9% on average during the first 34 months after a recession has ended, according to data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. Not this time, however: from June of 2009 government employment dropped by 2.7% (see chart). The 2.5m overall rise in employment since the downturn’s end corresponds to 3.1m new private jobs, less 600,000 lost government ones。

根據勞動統計局提供的數據，自經濟大蕭條結束至接下來經濟復甦階段的34個月，政府工資總支出明顯增多了，平均每月增長5.9%。然而，這次不同：2009年6月以來，政府的僱傭率下降了2.7%(見圖表)。本次蕭條結束，總共新增250萬個工作崗位，私營企業提供了310個工作崗位，而政府減少了不到60萬個工作崗位。

The bloodletting has been concentrated at local level. Despite a drop of 52,000 over the past year, federal government employment is unchanged since mid-2009. The states, by contrast, have shed roughly 100,000 workers over that period, while local governments have cut over 500,000 jobs, most of them in education。

政府纔是失業率居高不下的關鍵。且不論去年裁員了52,000人，聯邦政府每年新僱員人數自2009年起一直沒有改變。而各州政府在這一時期解僱了10萬人，地方政府削減了超過50萬個工作崗位，而這些崗位大部分來自教育部門。

Budget constraints are to blame. Most state and local governments are not allowed to borrow to cover shortfalls. So when tax revenues plummet, as they did during and after the recession, spending must fall in concert. Local governments, which rely heavily on property taxes to fund local schools, have been particularly hard hit by the prolonged slump in house values. Consequently, employment in public education is down by 266,000 since 2009. A “right-sizing” of state and local governments was certainly in order after the boom. Yet cuts in teaching staff may be unsustainable, since large classes are unpopular; and though it is too early to assess the cost to pupils, they could also prove damaging in the longer term。

預算管制是問題所在。大部分的州政府和地方政府是不允許借貸來彌補財政短缺的。因此，當稅收驟然下降時，正如他們在經濟蕭條階段和恢復階段所使用的方法，支出必須隨之縮減。地方政府很大程度上依靠房產稅收撥款給學校，當房價長期低迷時，地方政府就會受到嚴重打擊。因此，2009年至今，公立教育部門的工作崗位減少了226,000個。經濟復甦後，州政府和地方政府自然會回到人手合適的狀態。然而，教育職位的縮減可能不會持久，因爲大班授課的方式是不受歡迎的；雖然現在評估對學生的這一投資還太早，但若長此以往，弊端會顯現出來。

Things might have been worse. The 2009 stimulus package included roughly $140 billion in support for state and local governments, spread over two-and-a-half years. That figure covered between 30% and 40% of state shortfalls in the 2009-11 fiscal years, according to the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think-tank based in Washington, DC. Now, though, the stimulus tap has run dry. Worse, the federal government is increasingly a drag on state and local budgets, as Washington cuts its own spending。

事情也許會更糟。2009年的刺激計劃包括1400億撥款用於支持州政府和地方政府，已經實施了2年半。居位於華盛頓政府一智囊團預算與公共財產中心提供的數據，撥款彌補了09-11財政年州政府30%-40%的財政短缺。但是目前撥款已所剩無幾。更糟的是，聯邦政府受州政府和地方政府的影響越來越嚴重，位於華盛頓的聯邦政府也在縮減開支。

The lean times should, however, end soon. Over half of the 50 states are forecast to end the current fiscal year with more money than expected, thanks to fatter tax collections as the economy recovers. Several price indices point to stabilising house values, which should buoy up property-tax revenues and education budgets。

依賴階段依賴階段應儘快結束。由於經濟復甦帶來了更豐厚的稅收，50個州超過半數預計在本財政年結束時收入會超過預算所得。一些價格指數顯示房價會更加穩定，這也保證了豐厚的地產稅收和教育預算。

It may take time, though. State government payrolls rose by 1,000 in April, but local government employment dropped yet again, by 12,000. Government may soon contribute to recovery alongside the private sector; but perhaps not soon enough for Mr Obama。

但是，這可能需要時間。4月，州政府總工資支出上漲了1,000美元，而地方政府總工資支出再次下降，金額爲12,000美元。政府可能很快能和私營企業一道爲經濟復甦做貢獻，但也許對於奧巴馬總統來說這速度還是不夠快。