被忽視的羣體 中國失業大軍構成隱憂

China may have recorded its worst annual growth rate in nearly a quarter of a century but the country’s leadership does not appear too worried.

中國也許出現了近四分之一個世紀以來最低的年度增長率，但這個國家的領導層似乎不太擔心。

“The national economy has been running steadily under the ‘new normal’, showing good momentum of stable growth, optimised structure, enhanced quality and improved livelihoods,” Ma Jiantang, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said on Tuesday as he revealed the economy had grown 7.4 per cent last year, the slowest pace since 1990.

“國民經濟在新常態下保持平穩運行，呈現出增長平穩、結構優化、質量提升、民生改善的良好態勢，”中國國家統計局(NBS)局長馬建堂週二表示。他公佈中國經濟去年增長7.4%，這是自1990年以來最慢的增長步伐。

The main reason for the nonchalance is the fact that job creation and wage growth in China are both chugging along steadily, even as the economy slowed from 7.7 per cent growth in both 2012 and 2013.

這種不擔心的主要原因是中國的就業創造和工資上漲都在穩步推進，即便經濟增速從2012年和2013年7.7%的水平有所放緩。

China created 13.22m jobs last year and this, combined with the fact the slowdown has so far been gradual, has convinced the Communist party it can allow growth to slow further.

去年中國創造了1322萬就業崗位，而且經濟增長放緩迄今是逐漸的。這些情況使共產黨確信，它可以允許增長進一步放緩。

Overall employment pressure is also fading because China’s working-age population peaked in 2011 and is expected to fall at an accelerating rate in the coming years, thanks largely to the decades-old one-child policy.

總體就業壓力也在減輕，因爲中國的勞動年齡人口已經在2011年見頂，預計將在未來幾年加快下降——這歸因於實行幾十年的一胎化政策。

China’s working-age population fell 3.71m last year, after falling 2.44m in 2013.

中國的勞動年齡人口去年下降了371萬，此前在2013年下降了244萬。

But China’s official unemployment statistics are the worst of a notoriously unreliable set, raising a worrying question over whether Beijing’s sang-froid is misguided.

不過，中國官方的失業統計數字以不可靠出名，這就帶來一個令人擔憂的問題：中國高層的鎮定是不是受到誤導的？

The country’s official jobless rate has remained unchanged, at 4.1 per cent, for the past five years.

過去五年來，中國的官方失業率一直保持在4.1%不變。

It has fluctuated in a tiny band between 4.0 per cent and 4.3 per cent for the past 13 years, a period in which the quarterly year-on-year GDP growth rate was as high as 14 per cent and as low as 6 per cent.

過去13年裏，這個數字在4.0%至4.3%的狹窄區間裏波動，即便在此期間季度同比GDP增長率最高爲14%，最低爲6%。

The government itself acknowledges this number is not credible and has for many years gathered its own internal data, which it periodically announces but does not regularly publish.

政府自己也承認這個數字是不可信的，並已多年採集自己的內部數據，後者不定期宣佈，但沒有定期發佈。

On Tuesday, in response to a question from the Financial Times, Mr Ma said these internal “non-published” data put the real jobless rate in China at 5.1 per cent last year.

週二，在回答英國《金融時報》提出的問題時，馬建堂表示，根據這些“沒有正式發佈”的內部數據，中國去年的實際失業率爲5.1%。

The debate over China’s real unemployment rate is not just academic.

圍繞中國實際失業率的辯論不僅僅是學術性的。

Since at least 1989, Beijing’s top priority has been to create enough jobs to maintain social stability and head off popular uprisings that could overthrow the authoritarian state.

至少自1989年以來，中國高層的首要任務一直是創造足夠的就業機會，以維護社會穩定，阻止可能推翻威權政府的羣體性事件。

As recently as 2011, the government regarded 8 per cent annual growth as a quasi-mystical threshold, below which Chinese society would descend into chaos and the Communist dynasty would implode.

就在2011年，政府還把每年增長8%當作某種近乎神奇的門檻，彷彿達不到這個門檻中國社會就會陷入混亂，共產黨王朝就會發生內爆。

Thanks to a much larger base, less pressure from demographics and a gradual shift in the economy away from heavy industry towards labour-intensive services, the government’s new growth threshold is somewhere between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent.

由於基數擴大了許多、人口壓力減輕，以及中國經濟從重工業向勞動力密集的服務業逐漸轉型，政府設定的新增長門檻介於6.5%和7%之間。

“The [official, published] unemployment rate is based on the number of people who register as unemployed but most people who lose their jobs in China have no incentive to register,” says Ding Dajian, associate professor at People’s University School of Labor and Human Resources. “In the worst years, the government was not willing to publish the [more accurate internal] unemployment rate, which scholars estimated as high as 20 per cent. Now pressure in the labour market has really moderated so it is a very good time to announce the real unemployment rate.”

“（官方發佈的）失業率是基於登記失業的人數，但中國大多數失業者沒有登記的動力，”中國人民大學勞動人事學院副教授丁大建表示。“在最糟糕的年份，政府不願意發佈（更精確的內部）失業率，學者們估計該數字可能高達20%。現在，勞動力市場的壓力確實減輕了，所以這是一個宣佈實際失業率的很好時機。”

Some analysts believe the internal figure revealed by Mr Ma on Tuesday is still too low.

一些分析師認爲，馬建堂週二透露的內部數字仍然偏低。

The Economist Intelligence Unit released a report last week, based on research conducted with the IMF and the International Labour Organization, in which it estimated China’s real unemployment rate in 2014 was actually 6.3 per cent.

經濟學人信息部(EIU)根據其與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和國際勞工組織(ILO)聯合進行的研究，上週發表了一份報告。報告估計，中國2014年的實際失業率達到6.3%。

That was higher than both the UK, which the EIU estimated had an unemployment rate last year of 6 per cent, and the US, at 6.2 per cent.

這比英國和美國都更高。EIU估計，去年英國失業率爲6%，美國爲6.2%。

The picture is complicated further by the 274m rural migrant workers who power China’s economy but are almost entirely ignored by unemployment statistics.

若考慮到爲中國經濟發展立下汗馬功勞、但幾乎完全被失業統計忽略的2.74億農民工，情況就更加複雜了。

When most migrant workers lose their jobs they return to their homes in the countryside.

多數農民工在失去工作後，都會回到自己在農村的家。

Since these people can generally grow enough food to survive, this serves as a safety net in the case of mass unemployment of the kind China saw in late 2008 and early 2009.

這些人一般都能生產足夠的食物維生，對於中國在2008年末2009年初出現的那種大規模失業，這形成了某種安全網。

On the other hand, these people are severely underemployed and returning to the farms often pushes them back into abject poverty.

在另一方面，這些人嚴重就業不足，而且回到農村往往使他們再度陷入赤貧。

China’s slowdown is expected to continue this year, with problems particularly concentrated in the real estate construction, manufacturing and heavy industrial sectors, all of which are suffering from chronic overcapacity.

中國經濟放緩預計將在今年持續下去，問題特別集中在房地產建築業、製造業和重工業，這些產業都存在長期產能過剩。

“As the property downturn persists and further weighs on growth in 2015, employment will likely come under pressure,” says Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. “We expect job losses to be less severe in scale, though more protracted in length, relative to 2008-2009.”

“由於房地產持續低迷，進一步拖累2015年增長，就業將很可能承受壓力，”瑞銀(UBS)中國首席經濟學家汪濤表示。“相對於2008-2009年，我們預計這一次的裁員在規模上不那麼嚴重，但會持續更久。”

For now, China’s leaders appear relatively sanguine about the potential for massive lay-offs and accompanying social unrest.

就目前而言，中國領導人似乎對大規模裁員和與之相伴的社會動盪的可能性比較樂觀。

But if the government’s own internal unemployment figures are not accurate then the risks of miscalculation amid the slowdown only increase.

但是，如果政府自身的內部失業數字是不準確的，那麼在經濟增長放緩期間，誤判的風險只會增加。