張成澤的下場爲何令中國不安
North Korea’s formerly powerful number two, the ill-fated Jang Song Thaek, was very publicly and brutally executed, along with key aides — either as part of leader Kim Jong Un’s plan to consolidate his unrivalled power; as retaliation for fomenting a military coup against the boy leader; or as punishment for simply “not clapping with sufficient enthusiasm” (as mentioned in the litany of charges against him).
朝鮮曾經的二號人物、結局不佳的張成澤(Jang Song-Taek)及其一些重要助手被公開而無情地處決，這或者是金正恩(Kim Jong-un)鞏固其無可匹敵權力的計劃的一部分，或者是對張成澤企圖煽動軍事政變、推翻年輕領導人的報復，或者是對其“勉強拍手應付”的懲罰（官方在對張成澤的冗長指控中提到了這一點）。The state’s propaganda organs were in rare form when they denounced him: “Despicable human scum Jang, who was worse than a dog, perpetrated thrice-cursed acts of treachery,” pronounced the official news agency. “Every sentence of the decision served as a sledgehammer blow brought down by our angry service personnel and people on the head of Jang, an anti-party, counter-revolutionary, factional element and despicable political careerist and trickster.”
官方宣傳機構以不留餘地的最強烈措辭譴責張成澤：“狗不如的人間渣滓張成澤背叛黨和領袖天大的信任和深恩的栽培，犯下了令人髮指的大逆行爲，”官方的朝鮮中央通訊社宣告。“判決書的每句是朝鮮軍民給予反黨反革命分子、惡毒的政治野心家、陰謀家張成澤的狠狠的鐵錘。”The problem with closed, totalitarian states is that we cannot truly know why things happen. Jang’s sentence was handed down perhaps because of some combination of the above – or it could have been because the “Great Successor” (as Kim Jong Un is occasionally called, to remind all of his lineage) did not like the look in his eye during a sideways glance at a military parade. This macabre exhibition both appals us and draws us to look more closely: how is this Asian hybrid of Hobbes and Orwell even possible in 21st century northeast Asia, the veritable cockpit of the global economy?
封閉的極權國家的問題是，我們不可能真正知道事情的來龍去脈。張成澤得到的判決，或許是因爲上述原因的某種組合，也可能是因爲“偉大繼承人”（金正恩有時被冠以這個稱號，以便向天下提醒他的血統）在檢閱閱兵期間側頭一瞥時，不喜歡他的眼神。這種可怕的展示既讓我們感到驚懼，也促使我們更仔細地觀察：在東北亞已成爲全球經濟駕駛艙的21世紀，這種亞洲特色的霍布斯(Hobbes)和奧威爾(Orwell)的混合體怎麼有可能存在？
Jang was seen in China and in the South Korean security establishment as a kind of human bellwether for North Korea’s trajectory. How he went would tell us how the country goes. He had long been viewed as the most experienced, cosmopolitan member of the elite — and the one best positioned to perhaps help embark the cloistered country on a path towards gradual opening and reform. Married to the aunt of Kim Jong Un and bestowed with military honours and privilege, he was regarded by some as almost family, which did not save him from the executioner. In truth, he was the favoured son of China, the only senior official in Pyongyang in whom Beijing had any confidence or indeed hope. Now that he has been dispatched, the anxiety levels have crept up perceptively along Beijing’s corridors of power.
張成澤生前被中國和韓國安全部門視爲觀察朝鮮走向的某種風向標式的人物。他的沉浮將告訴我們這個國家的走向。他長期被視爲朝鮮精英階層中經驗最豐富、最具世界眼光的成員，也是置身於最有利地位的官員，或許有可能幫助這個與世隔絕的國家逐步走上開放和改革之路。張成澤與金正恩的姑姑結婚並被授予軍事榮譽和特權，被某些人認爲幾乎就是金氏家族的人，而這並未讓他免於一死。實際上，他是中國的寵兒，是北京方面唯一抱有信心（或者期待）的平壤高官。既然他已被處決，北京高層的不安情緒明顯上升。There are indications that China has grown steadily more concerned by the brutal goings-on in Pyongyang and the provocations staged against its neighbours. Jang’s elimination will only add to the worry. The repeated nuclear tests, the sinking of a South Korean warship, the shelling of disputed island territories, and repeated missile tests and military exercises have dialled up tensions in China’s immediate neighbourhood. They have served as the driving force behind defence modernisation and military deployments for the US and its friends – certainly not in a rising-China’s best interests. There have been many reasons posited for China’s reluctance to entertain regime change in the North. There is, of course, the desire to maintain a kind of buffer state on its periphery, and the fear of instability immediately on the border. There is also the very reasonable fear of North Korean instability triggering the intervention of outside powers, with the potential for profound geopolitical miscalculations and large armies clashing.
有跡象表明，平壤的野蠻舉動及其對鄰國的挑釁越來越讓中國感到擔憂。張成澤的下場只會加劇這種擔憂。屢次進行核試驗、擊沉韓國軍艦、炮轟爭議島嶼以及多次進行導彈試驗和軍事演習，加劇了中國周邊地區的緊張局勢。它們成爲美國及其盟友展開防務現代化和軍事部署背後的驅動因素，這當然不符合一個正在崛起的中國的最佳利益。人們提出了很多理由，說明中國不願支持朝鮮政權更迭。中國當然希望朝鮮充當某種意義上的境外緩衝，並擔心本國邊境地區陷入不穩定。此外，中國還合理地擔憂朝鮮局勢動盪引發外部勢力的干預，導致深遠的地緣政治誤判和大規模軍事衝突。But there is also, in all likelihood, a kind of recognition and form of empathy in Beijing for the bizarre machinations and public trials of Pyongyang. Strip away the hereditary power transitions and unique qualities of juche (a North Korean concept of self-reliance verging of deprivation), and North Korea most resembles Stalin’s Russia or Mao’s China going through the horrors of the cultural revolution. Surely it would be painful – even for the current generation of modern, technocratic Chinese leaders – to consider abandoning a fraternal progeny, even one as horribly deformed and so belonging on the ash heap of history as North Korea. No, China will not cast away its ideological cousin and comrades from the Korean war, but instead continue to counsel patience, gradual reform and restraint – and, bluntly put, hope for the best.
但北京方面多半也會對平壤的離奇陰謀和公開審判懷有某種認可和同情。剔除權力世襲和“主體思想”（juche，接近赤貧的朝鮮特色自力更生概念）的獨特特徵後，朝鮮就像是斯大林領導下的蘇聯或者毛澤東領導下的文化大革命時期的中國。即便對於當代中國的技術官僚式領導人來說，考慮放棄革命兄弟的後代肯定會感到痛苦，即便是像朝鮮這種極度扭曲，應當被掃進歷史垃圾堆的國家。不，中國不會拋棄其意識形態表親和朝鮮戰爭中的戰友，而是會繼續建議耐心、漸進式改革，以及剋制，說白了就是往好處想。Jang obviously did not survive this hoping for the best, and looks remarkably like an Asian version of Arthur Koestler’s protagonist in Darkness at Noon. Jang, like the old Bolshevik Rubashov, probably had an inkling of his destiny. Before he is carefully excised from all the photographic history of North Korea, examine one of the few existing pictures of Jang with Kim Jong Un. There he is at a factory site with the young genius still with his baby fat, standing just in the background, uncomfortable, knowing his ultimate fate, but still hoping for the best.
張成澤顯然未能靠這種“往好處想”的策略保住老命，他看起來就像是阿瑟•凱斯特勒(Arthur Koestler)在其著作《中午的黑暗》(Darkness at Noon)中描述的主角。與那位名叫盧巴雪夫(Rubashov)的老布爾什維克一樣，張成澤或許隱隱約約知道自己的下場。在朝鮮周密地刪掉張成澤的所有歷史影像之前，認真研究一下張成澤與金正恩的一張合影（現在兩人的合影已經沒有多少了）。在這張張成澤陪同那位仍然胖乎乎的年輕天才訪問一家工廠的照片上，張成澤表情不安地站在後面，似乎知道自己的最終命運，但仍然抱着僥倖心理。Kurt Campbell is chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the Center for a New American Security. From 2009-13 he served as the assistant US secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs
本文作者是亞洲集團(The Asia Group)主席兼首席執行官、新美國安全中心(Center for a New American Security)董事會成員，曾在2009年至2013年擔任美國東亞及太平洋事務助理國務卿
