俄羅斯對未來沒有計劃

Speaking at the Valdai Club in Sochi recently, President Vladimir Putin easily dismissed the slogan, "No Putin — No Russia," put forward on the eve of the event by his deputy chief of staff Vyacheslav Volodin. By doing so, Putin showed that he is a "European"leader and not a Central Asian "president for life," contrary to the wishes of officials like din's slogan might work well for a rally in support of United Russia, butit lacks enough substance to serve as the basis of an entire ideology — despite the efforts by some pro-Kremlin commentators who rushed to find profound meaning in it. The problem is that Putin can reel off from memory Russia'sformula for selling gas to Ukraine, quoting the figure right down to the penny,but has no interest in complex ideological n's three-hour speech at Valdai was aimed primarily at the West. It carriedthe spirit of pragmatic realpolitik and was unwavering in asserting that Russiais in the right — a crucial stance for a politician whose popularity rests on his power and bravado.

最近在索契瓦爾代俱樂部，普京總統駁回了一個口號，“沒有普金就沒有俄羅斯”。這會前被駁回的口號是由他的副參謀長Vyacheslav Volodin提出的。普京此舉意在表明他是個“歐洲款”領導人，不是中亞式“終身總統”。相反官員們倒是挺喜歡Volodin的口號。Volodin的口號在加強俄羅斯統一的凝聚力上也許會很有效，但整個思想體系缺乏物質基礎——匆匆趕來的親克里姆林派評論家們覺得這種嘗試意義深遠。但問題是，普金能夠照俄羅斯原方案給烏克蘭賣天然氣，參考數據走向來賺小錢錢，卻對構建複雜的意識形態沒有興趣。普京在瓦爾代近三個小時的演講主要內容是西方。他以一貫務實又實用的精神堅定不移的宣佈俄羅斯的政治主張是正確的——一個立場堅定的政治家受歡迎程度取決於他的能力和勇氣。

Putin conveyed that the West, and particularly the U.S., had mortally offended Russia and even betrayed it and went on to point out American duplicity and double standards. "We only wanted what was best for everybody," Putinessentially argued, "but you Americans drowned our good intentions in asea of hypocrisy, lies, imperial arrogance and unwillingness to consider anyone'sinterests but your own."And yet despite the legitimacy of such claims, it is unclear whether any of theValdai Club members present — who know the intricacies of Russian politics better than anyone — agreed with Putin's arguments. Russia's ruling class,taking its cue from the president, has completely shifted into a world of itsown, replete with a separate set of ideas, values and principles.

普京表示，西方世界尤其是美國，已經嚴重觸犯背棄俄羅斯，他還指出美國的兩面性和雙重標準。“我們只想做對大家都好的事情，”普京從根本上道出實質，“但你們美國人帶着帝國的傲慢用僞善和謊言扭曲壓制我們的善意，不願承認除了你們別人也會考慮大局利益。”儘管目前還不清楚（普京的）言論是否被瓦爾代俱樂部與會成員認同——清楚俄羅斯政治複雜性的人們——會贊同普京的話。從總統的暗示來看，俄羅斯的統治階層已經完全成爲充滿着他自己一整套獨立思想、價值觀和原則的世界。

And the problem is not whether the Russian or Western world is more"correct," but that the two sides have conclusively formed separate camps, unable to understand and unwilling to even listen to each is the main factor that will shape Russian foreign and domestic policy inthe next few years. In his sharply anti-U.S. speech, Putin defined his policyand principles in a way that finds comparison to remarks he made at a security conference in Munich in 2007 and the definitive speech that former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill delivered in Fulton, Missouri, in 1946 in which he popularized the term "Iron Curtain."But will snarling at the "duplicitous and despicable" West aloneprovide adequate foundation for creating a meaningful social and political life in Russia?However archaic and reactionary Russia's realpolitik might seem to what Putincalls "our Western friends and partners," it might very well become aconsistent pattern of behavior in the international arena, giving rise tonumerous confrontations on many whereas foreign policy is typically a continuation of domestic policy, theopposite is true in Russia, where the so-called Dima Yakovlev law banning American citizens from adopting Russian orphans was born not so much out of Russian lawmakers' love for orphans as it was out of their angry reaction tothe Magnitsky Act, which barred a group of Russian officials from entering the U.S.

問題不是俄羅斯和西方世界誰更“正確”，而是兩大陣營之間彼此不能理解，甚至不願意相互傾聽。這也是接下來幾年影響俄羅斯外交和國內政策的主要因素。對比一下， 2007年普金在慕尼黑安全會議上的權威發言，和1946年前英國首相丘吉爾在密蘇里州富爾頓推廣“鐵幕”時的發言。不難看出，這種尖銳的反美言論是普金捍衛他的政治理論的方式。對着“卑劣又兩面派”的西方咆哮能獨自給‘創建一個有社會意義和政治環境的俄羅斯'提供堅實的基礎？然而古舊而保守的俄羅斯權力政策看起來很像普金所稱呼的“我們的西方朋友和合作夥伴”，它很好的成爲了國際舞臺行爲模式，引發了數量衆多的衝突。儘管外交政策是一種典型的國內政策的延續，在俄羅斯卻相反，所謂的禁止美國公民收養俄羅斯孤兒的迪馬雅科夫列夫法律出臺，不是俄羅斯法律制定者對孤兒多麼有愛，僅是針對美方通過馬格尼茨基法案禁止部分俄官員入境（美國）的憤怒反應。PS：馬格尼茨基法案，2012年美國製定的就俄羅斯反腐律師馬格尼茨基死亡案件相關的俄方官員的一個黑名單，該名單上人員一律被禁止入境美國。馬格尼茨基是毛熊家某基金公司一枚小律師，08年揭露毛熊家一起涉案金額高達2.3億美元的官僚詐騙案，後被毛熊警方以涉嫌逃稅欺詐罪名逮捕，羈押期間遭受毒打，09年因心臟病死亡，毛熊家克里姆林宮發言人公開承認其很可能是毆打致死。

Judging by recent statements from senior Russian officials, tough iment has become the leitmotif of Kremlin propaganda. It has become thelitmus test of patriotism, along with accusations that the West is "aiding and abetting fascists" in that cannot fill the ideological void and create a positive image of Russia's future. A country with aspirations of greatness cannot win the world's respect by constantly denouncing Washington, much less by struggling with somepathetic "junta in Kiev."Moscow leaders might find some meaning in the struggle for the interests ofNovorossia in eastern Ukraine and the even larger Russian world. But in that case, they must first infuse meaning into the social life of Russia itself —the foundation of any larger Russian ers must first care for their own people, ensure their well-being, standard of living, rights and protection under the rule of law and only then turn their sights to Novorossia and the possibility of further expansion. This idea of anexpanded sphere of Russian influence will never work if it is based only on identifyingenemies — "foreign agents," people with dual citizenship and"fifth and sixth columns" of domestic is needed is to formulate a post-communist "Russian Dream" —similar to the American Dream — without letting the country degenerate into unbridled and primitive chauvinism.

從俄羅斯高級官員最近的言論來看，強硬的反美情緒被列爲克里姆林宮的宣傳主題。隨着在烏克蘭指控西方是“教唆洗腦的法西斯”輿論，它已成爲愛國主義的試金石。這既不能填補思想空白也不能爲俄羅斯的未來建立正面形象。一個偉大的國家不能靠指責美國來贏得世界尊重，這比跟某些可悲的“基輔軍政府” 罵架還糟。（基輔軍政府，有點類似軍閥割據不過局面小的多，該羣小集團中的某個奇葩聲稱自己是正義方，而其人民是恐怖分子） 莫斯科的領導者或許會在東烏克蘭的Novorossia（國名，烏克蘭東南部和南部地區計劃將來自己搭夥建個國家，開張時打算用的名字。）或者俄羅斯世界的利益鬥爭中得出點意義。但在這種情況下他們首先得賦予俄羅斯社會本身一些實質性意義——那是任何一個俄羅斯世界的基礎。 領導者應該先照顧好自己治下的人民，確保他們身體健康，生活達標，享有權利和受到保護，然後再把目光放到Novorossia和有可能的進一步開拓上。擴大俄羅斯的影響力永遠不會實現，如果我們總是把注意力放在鑑別敵人上——“外國特工”，有雙國籍的人，被放到“第五和第六欄”的內部敵人。我們最需要的是制定一個後共產主義的“俄羅斯夢”——就像美國夢——而不是讓國家毫無準備的倒退回原始化的沙文主義。

When former Soviet leader Josef Stalin denounced the "Yugoslavfascists" of Yugoslavia's then-leader Josip Broz Tito, and when former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev criticized U.S. imperialism while addressingnumerous peace initiatives to the "progressive part of mankind" —proposals that were just as devoid of substance as similar initiatives sounding from Moscow today — they were built into a comprehensive ideological the core of that ideology was an image of the future characterized bycommunist happiness, universal equality, brotherhood and love. It served as theframework for a system of societal ethics and models of personal behavior leading to career advancement and current attempt to substitute a coherent image of the future with ahodgepodge of obsolete Soviet ideas only underscores the ideological poverty of the current regime. That jumble of unprincipled, opportunistic journalism,primitive television propaganda and primeval myths about how the Western worldwants to enslave Russia, push it to its knees and steal its minerals, land,water and air is no vision of the future. It is only a horror story borrowed from the dusty past that offers no constructive plan or direction.

前蘇聯領導人斯大林譴責過時任南斯拉夫領導人的Josip Broz Tito 爲“南斯拉夫法西斯”，前蘇聯領導人勃列日涅夫在美國用“進步的人類”建議和平解決衆多倡議時批評美國帝國主義——從今日的莫斯科來看（當年）那種類似的行爲毫無意義——他們都建成了一個全面的思想體系。這一共產主義幸福思想的核心應該具有人人平等、友愛長存等長遠願景。作爲一個社會道德和引導職業發展與成功的行爲規範他服務於整個體系框架。這種用老舊的蘇聯大雜燴觀念代替未來願景的嘗試只能暴露出當前政府的思維匱乏。那羣無原則、投機主義的新聞媒體，用低級簡陋的方式宣傳和杜撰着關於西方世界如何想要奴役俄羅斯，使其屈服好偷走它的礦產，土地，水和空氣，那不是未來該有的憧憬。僅僅是個從不能提供建設規劃和方向的舊土堆中虛構出來的醜惡故事。