希臘公投背後的政治遊戲

ATHENS — As Friday night became Saturday morning, with sidewalk cafes still bustling in central Athens, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras abruptly appeared on national television.

雅典——當週五的夜色正在褪去，週六的晨光漸漸來臨，雅典市中心的咖啡館仍在喧鬧時，希臘總理亞歷克西斯·齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras )突然出現在國家電視臺上。

Mr. Tsipras, only 40, had spent his five months in office locked in increasingly acrimonious negotiations with Greece’s creditors. Belittled by critics, and facing the prospect of default, he was under intense pressure to sign a deal.

上任五個月以來，只有40歲的齊普拉斯一直身陷希臘與其債權人之間日益緊張的債務談判。面對批評人士的貶低和債務違約的可能，他承受着達成協議的巨大壓力。

Instead, Mr. Tsipras tossed a grenade.

出人意料的是，齊普拉斯扔出了一枚手榴彈。

With much of Europe sound asleep, Mr. Tsipras stared into the camera and shattered the careful decorum of European Union diplomacy. Declaring that creditors were demanding “strict and humiliating austerity,” Mr. Tsipras announced a national referendum on July 5, so voters could decide for themselves.

此時，在歐洲大部分地區，人們還在沉睡，齊普拉斯正對鏡頭，打破了歐盟外交恪守的謹慎禮儀。他表示債權人要求的是“嚴苛而具侮辱性的緊縮政策”，並宣佈希臘將在7月5日舉行全民公投，讓選民自己決定是否接受歐盟的提議。

“We should respond to authoritarianism and harsh austerity with democracy, calmly and decisively,” Mr. Tsipras said. “Greece, the birthplace of democracy, should send a resounding democratic message to the European and global community.”

“我們應該冷靜、果斷地用民主對抗威權主義和嚴厲的緊縮政策，”齊普拉斯說道。“希臘是民主政治的搖籃，它應該向歐洲和全球發出響亮的民主之聲。”

Stunned, his fellow European leaders shut down negotiations, capped the lifeline they had been providing Greece’s banks, angrily denounced him as irresponsible and dishonest with his own people, and not so subtly suggested that Greece needed a new government if it wanted to continue drawing economic help.

歐洲其他國家的領導人十分震驚，他們關閉了與希臘的談判通道，切斷了之前一直給希臘銀行提供的生死攸關的援助，憤怒地譴責齊普拉斯此舉是對他的人民不負責任和不誠實，而且毫不隱諱地表示，·希臘如果想繼續獲得歐洲的經濟援助，將需要更換新政府。

Now, with the Greek crisis posing a threat to the global economy, the sniping started dissipating somewhat on Monday, even as Greece was left coping with a shuttered banking system and new uncertainties about its future. But from Berlin to Brussels to Washington to Athens, the same question permeated discussions about Greece: What kind of game is Mr. Tsipras playing?

眼下，希臘債務危機正對全球經濟形成威脅，這樣的抨擊在週一的時候開始有些消散，儘管希臘要獨自應對崩潰的銀行系統和不確定的未來。但是從柏林到布魯塞爾，到華盛頓，再到雅典，有一個問題佔據了關於希臘的所有討論：齊普拉斯到底在玩什麼遊戲？

To some critics, Mr. Tsipras turned to the referendum as a last-ditch play to retain power by stoking a nationalistic response to Greece’s standoff with its creditors. To others, he was a study in ideological conviction, admired by some of his supporters but scoffed at by others, who predicted potentially disastrous consequences for his own people.

有批評者認爲，齊普拉斯訴諸公投是要煽動針對希臘債務談判僵局的極端民族主義情緒，是爲保留自身權力而進行的孤注一擲。有的則認爲，他是一個意識形態信念的化身，被一些支持者讚賞，同時又被另一些人嘲笑，他們預測他給希臘人民帶來的後果可能是災難性的。

But there was also a case to be made that, by accident or design, he had actually succeeded in intensifying the crisis in a way that could provide him with additional leverage should negotiations get back on track, as the United States and some European leaders urged on Monday.

但是，不管是有意還是無意，這也說明，他已經在某種程度上成功地加劇了危機，因此一旦談判（如週一美國和一些歐洲領導人敦促的那樣）回到正軌，他手上就有了更多的籌碼。

Whether that is possible given the mistrust on both sides remains to be seen. For now, Mr. Tsipras’s tactic remains, if nothing else, an audacious maneuver, defining him as a rare unpredictable force among European Union leaders, while also focusing new attention on Europe’s austerity policies and highlighting the failings in the long-running Greece negotiations.

考慮到雙方現在互不信任，談判是否會恢復還有待觀察。撇開別的不談，目前看，齊普拉斯採取的策略不失爲大膽的行動，讓他成爲歐盟領導人中一股少見的難以預測的力量，也把注意力引到了歐洲的緊縮政策上，突顯出曠日持久的希臘債務談判的諸多失敗之處。

“That’s really the tragedy of all this,” said Nick Malkoutzis, a political analyst in Athens, pointing out the shortcomings among all negotiators. “There has been a massive, collective failure.”

“它的確是我們所有人造成的災難，”雅典政治分析人士尼可·馬克吉斯(Nick Malkoutzis)說道，他指出談判各方存在的種種問題。“這是一個巨大的、集體性的失敗。”

Barely five months ago, Mr. Tsipras stood in front of Athens University before thousands of cheering supporters, newly elected as prime minister, as he vowed to remake the European political order. He was the youthful, handsome leader of Greece’s radical left Syriza Party, having ridden waves of populist rage against the policies of economic austerity demanded by creditors in exchange for bailing out the country with 240 billion euros in loans, after the European economic crisis.

不到五個月前，齊普拉斯在雅典大學門前，面對成千上萬支持者的歡呼，當選爲新一屆希臘總理，他宣誓要重整歐洲政治秩序。當時他是希臘左翼政黨激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)年輕、英俊的領導人，乘着一波波高漲的民粹主義情緒的而起。這些憤怒情緒的根源是希臘債權人在歐洲經濟危機爆發後要求希臘實行經濟緊縮政策，由此換取2400億歐元（約合1.667萬億人民幣）貸款援助。

In just a few years, Syriza had risen from the fringes to shatter Greece’s decades-old political establishment. Leftists across Europe rejoiced and predicted an electoral backlash against austerity in Spain and elsewhere. Mr. Tsipras interpreted Syriza’s election victory as a democratic mandate to roll back austerity and negotiate new terms to the country’s bailout.

在短短的幾年中，激進左翼聯盟已經從邊緣崛起，顛覆了希臘長達數十年的原有政治版圖。歐洲的左翼人士欣喜地預言，在西班牙等其他國家的選舉中，將出現選民反對緊縮政策的倒戈。齊普拉斯將激進左翼聯盟在選舉中的勝利解讀爲一種終止緊縮政策，並協商該國緊急財政援助方案新條款的民主授權。

“He had delusions about how the European creditors would treat him,” said Stavros Lygeros, a political commentator in Athens, with ties to Mr. Tsipras. “He thought they would respect the Greek vote and try to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.”

“他對於歐洲債權人將如何對待他抱有幻想，”雅典的政治評論員，與齊普拉斯有聯繫的斯塔夫羅斯·萊吉爾羅斯(Stavros Lygeros)說。“他認爲他們會尊重希臘人的投票並努力達成互利的協議。”

Any honeymoon with Europe was short-lived. Greece’s outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, alienated many European officials. The new Syriza government’s objective was a comprehensive new agreement, including debt relief, and the flexibility to run the economy as the government saw fit. The creditors — the 18 other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — blanched.

任何與歐洲的蜜月都是短暫的。希臘心直口快的財政部長雅尼斯·瓦魯法克斯(Yanis Varoufakis)與許多歐洲官員關係疏遠。新的激進左翼聯盟政府的目標是一個全新的綜合性協議，包括減免債務，以及以希臘政府認爲適合的靈活度來維持經濟運行。債權人們——其他18個歐元區國家、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織——則臉色煞白。

The compromise was an interim agreement on Feb. 20 that extended the bailout program until June 30. Mr. Varoufakis and other Syriza officials described the agreement’s language as “creative ambiguity,” suggesting that it gave the government license to begin putting its own policies into effect. But creditors had included a poison pill, withholding a delayed loan of 7.2 billion euro, or about $8.1 billion,in the bailout program. Unlocking that money became the focus of negotiations going forward, especially as Greece was rapidly going broke and staring at debt payments on the horizon.

這次妥協是2月20號達成的一項臨時協議，將延長援助計劃到6月30日。瓦魯法克斯和其他激進左翼聯盟官員以“有創造性的模糊”來描述協議的語言，暗示這允許政府可以開始採用自己的政策。但債權人在其中挖了一個陷阱，阻止了援助計劃中72億歐元（約合500億元人民幣）的延期貸款。解凍這筆款項成爲未來協商的焦點，尤其是當希臘正快速走向破產，且又即將面臨償還貸款的時候。

In Brussels, technocratic negotiations stalled, as European officials blamed the Greeks for not presenting serious proposals.

在布魯塞爾，因爲歐洲官員指責希臘人沒有認真提出方案，技術性的談判進入了僵局。

European leaders and negotiators in Brussels bore their own pressures, as they faced voter anger over shipping billions of euros in loans to Greece. As Mr. Tsipras made regular trips to Brussels, rumors circulated that European officials saw him as a moderate and hoped he might shed some of the more radical elements of Syriza and form a new governing coalition with more centrist parties.

歐洲領導人和布魯塞爾的協商者們有着自己的壓力，因爲他們面對着選民對向希臘貸款數十億歐元的不滿。隨着齊普拉斯頻繁出訪布魯塞爾，有關傳言甚囂塵上，稱歐洲官員視其爲溫和派並希望他能夠褪去部分激進左翼聯盟激進的元素，並與更多中間黨派組成一個新的聯合政府。

“Cutting a bad deal is not an option for him,” said one senior Syriza government official last week, speaking only on condition of anonymity. “One problem with the negotiations was that their negotiators read him wrong. They thought he was willing to do whatever that was needed to stay in power.”

“達成一個糟糕的協議對他來說是不可接受的，”一位不願透露姓名的激進左翼聯盟高級政府官員上週說。“協商的其中一個問題是談判者錯誤地解讀了他。他們認爲他願意爲了保留權力不惜一切代價。”

Some analysts speculate that Mr. Tsipras called the referendum to save his party, since putting the matter to voters absolves Syriza of its campaign promise not to sign such a deal. Others argue that the prime minister, like others in Syriza, are actually trying to steer Greece out of the . Lygeros, the political commentator who has known the prime minister for years, is critical of how he has handled the negotiations. But in an interview conducted last week, when it looked as if the Greek side would relent to creditor demands, Mr. Lygeros also noted that Mr. Tsipras could be pushed only so far.

一些分析人士猜測齊普拉斯通過舉行公投來拯救他的政黨，這樣把選擇權交給選民，可以爲激進左翼聯盟在違背了不簽署此類協議的競選承諾之後開脫。還有人稱，總理和激進左翼聯盟的其他人一樣，正在試圖引導希臘脫離歐元區。與總理有多年關係的政治評論員萊吉爾羅斯批評了他處理談判的方式。但在上週進行的一次採訪中，當希臘方面似乎願意向債權人的要求妥協時，萊吉爾羅斯也提到齊普拉斯僅能接受到這個程度。

“For better or worse, the things he was saying when he got elected were things he genuinely believed in,” Mr. Lygeros said. “If he is cornered too tightly, he is unpredictable. He might even go to a referendum.”

“不論是好是壞，他在當選時所說的都是他所深信不疑的，”萊吉爾羅斯說。“如果他被逼得太緊，他會變得難以預測。他甚至可能會舉行公投。”

Two days later, Mr. Tsipras did just that.

兩天後，齊普拉斯就這麼做了。