投資者正在希臘被屠宰

Meet the Greekoholics: The investors who are losing big money in Greece but can't kick the habit.

遇到希臘表演者：這些投資者在希臘損失大量金錢，但還是不能撤離。

Most international investors shunned Greece a long time ago, scared off by its never-ending debt crisis. But a bunch of brave — or possibly shrewd — fund managers have defied the consensus and bet big on the country, which continues to flirt with default and exit from the euro.

大部分國際投資者在很久前就已經放棄希臘了，原因是不見盡頭的債務危機。但是，還是有一羣勇敢者，也許是精明的基金經理們,無視業內的意見,投入大量資金在這個國家，繼續忽略希臘履行協議事實和退出歐元區的可能。

They love it when things are not looking rosy.

他們在事情變得很糟糕時卻依然對它情有獨鍾。

"Some of the best returns in stock markets come from when the things are truly miserable, and turn slightly less bad, so we actually kind of like it when there is negative geopolitical news," said Meb Faber, the co-founder of Cambria Investment Management.

坎布里資產管理公司創始人麥博·法伯爾說，"股票市場的最佳翻轉發生在它們真正慘不可言，然後稍微好轉的時候，所以，當這些負面政治新聞出現時，我們卻覺得時機到了。"

There has been a lot of bad news recently. Athens urgently needs the last tranche of its 240 billion eur o bailout to avoid running out of money. Its creditors will only release the cash if Greece agrees to imp lement economic reforms. Four months of talks have made little progress.

最近發生了大量負面新聞。雅典迫切需要它2400億歐元的一期救助，以避免資金耗盡。只有在希臘同意進行經濟改革時 ,它的債權人才會放款。4個月的對話進展甚微。

The Athens stock market has fallen 26% in the past 12 months and Greek government debt has fared ever rse. Yields on 10-year bonds have nearly doubled.

雅典股票市場在過去12個月裏已經下跌了26% ,同0稀臘政府債務也越來越槽。十年期債券的收益率幾乎翻倍。

Greek bank stocks have been hardest hit, partly because depositors have taken fright at the risk that Greece's international lifeline could be severed.

希臘銀行股本是重災區，部分原因是，在希臘的國際生命線隨時會中斷的危機中，儲戶們已經提出現款。

Shares in Piraeus (BPIRY), Alpha Bank (ALBKF) and Eurobank (EGFEY) have plunged by as much as 60% this year.

比雷埃夫斯的股票，阿爾法銀行的股票和歐洲銀行的股票，今年已經下跌了60%。

Investors poured money into Greek banks in 2013 as they set about raising new capital in the wake of the last debt crisis in 2012.

2013年，投資者傾瀉資金進入希臘銀行，因爲它們着手在2012年最後的債務危機之後，緊跟着着手籌集新的資本。

Mark Yusko is one such investor. The founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management says about 5% of his portfolio, equivalent to millions of dollars, is invested in Greece. He estimates that he's lost about 20% on his investment in the banks.

馬克·尤思科就是一名這樣的投資者。這位摩根凱瑞資本管理公司的創始人說，投資組合的5%，相當於數百萬美元，被投入到希臘。他估計，他已經損失了投入銀行資金的20%。

Other funds that hold stakes in Greek banks include London-based Majedie Asset Management, and U.S. hedge funds Wellington Management and the Vanguard Group. Based on their reported holdings at the end of March, they each lost tens of millions of euros in the first quarter. All three declined to comment.

其他豪賭希臘銀行的基金包括，倫敦的馬吉德資產管理公司，和美國對衝基金惠靈頓管理公司和先鋒集團。根據它們在3月末發佈的報告，首季度，它們每家都損失了數千萬歐元，所有這三家公司都不願就這件事發表評論。

Even John Paulson, whose mega bet against subprime mortgages in 2007 transformed him into a star, is hurting. The value of his stake in Alpha Bank plunged by nearly 40 million euros in the first three months of the year.

甚至因2007年對次貸的抨擊而成爲明星的約翰·鮑爾森，也遭受了損失。今年前三個月，他在阿爾法銀行的投資損失了差不多4000萬歐元。

Cambria Investment Management has nearly $7 million -- or about 9% of its assets -- in Greece. The fund has lost 20% in the 12 months to the end of March.

坎布里資產管理公司在希臘投入了差不多700萬美元——或者說相當於它資產的9%。這筆資金直到3月末的12個月內已經損失了20%。

But Cambria's Faber says he is invested in Greece for the long term -- even if the country ends up stumbling out of the eurozone. Exiting the eurozone could even be a good thing for the Greek stock market.

但是，坎布里的法伯爾說，他在希臘進行的是長期投資——即使這個國家最終狼狽的退出歐盟。離開歐盟對希臘股票市場來說，甚至可能是利好。

"It could be that certainty helps it either way; either the EU is willing to step in and keep them in, or they say 'enough is enough''s probably the uncertainty that hurts the most," he said.

"不論以哪種方式結局，都是有利的；歐洲干預，把希臘留在歐元區，或者他們說‘受不了了'。。。也不見得意味着會損害多數人。"

Others are convinced that Germany and other eurozone countries would not allow Greece to drop out of the euro.

其他人則相信，德國和其他歐盟國家不會讓希臘離開歐元區。

"The eurozone is set up that once you are in, you can't get out," said Morgan Creek's Yusko. "Germany cannot afford to let them drop out because then the [euro] would strengthen and that would hit the German economy."

"歐元區建立的宗旨是，一旦你加入了，你就不能退出，"摩根凱瑞的尤思科說，"德國不能承受希臘退出歐元區的後果，因爲如果希臘退出，歐元將會走強，這將嚴重打擊德國經濟。"

Then there is geopolitics. European leaders would be reluctant to see Greece cosying up to Russia at a time of high tension over Ukraine.

然後，還有地緣政治。歐洲領導人在烏克蘭危機加重時，不希望看到希臘與俄羅斯走近。

"If things get really really ugly, Greece could turn and go to Russia," Yusko said.

尤思科說，"如果事情變得非常糟糕，希臘可能會轉而投向俄羅斯。"

There are other investors who believe the flood of bad news from Greece is just a storm in a teacup.

還有其他的投資者相信，希臘如洪水一般的負面新聞只不過是，茶壺裏的風暴。

Japonica Partners, one of the biggest holders of Greek government debt, believes the country's finances are in much better shape than official statistics indicate.

榮泰資本公司，希臘政府債券的最大持有者之一，相信這個國家的財政狀況比官方的統計數據要好得多。

The fund's founder and former Goldman Sachs banker Paul Kazarian said Greece's main problem is the lack of credible accounting.

這個基金的創始人同時又是高盛集團前銀行家的保羅·卡莎雲說，希臘主要的問題是，缺少可靠的統計數據。

"Nobody knows how much money they have, (but) we believe the debt numbers are vastly better," he said.

他說，"沒人知道他們有多少錢，（但是）我們相信，真實債務情況要好得多。"