希臘左翼大選勝出將終結財政緊縮

ATHENS — Greece rejected the punishing economics of austerity on Sunday and sent a warning signal to the rest of Europe as the left-wing Syriza party won a decisive victory in national elections, positioning its tough-talking leader, Alexis Tsipras, to become the next prime minister.

雅典——週日，隨着左翼政黨激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)在全國大選中贏得決定性勝利，使得該黨語氣強硬的領導人亞歷克西斯·齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)成爲下一任總理，雅典開始抵制嚴格的經濟緊縮政策，並向歐洲其他國家發出了一個警告信號。

With 60 percent of the vote counted, Syriza had 36 percent, almost eight points ahead of the governing center-right New Democracy Party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, who had conceded defeat. The only uncertainty was whether Syriza would muster an outright parliamentary majority or if it would have to form a coalition.

在目前已經統計的60%的選票中，激進左翼聯盟贏得了36%的投票，領先執政黨——現任總理安東尼斯·薩馬拉斯(Antonis Samaras)領導的中右翼政黨新民主黨(New Democracy Party)將近八個百分點，薩馬拉斯已經承認敗選。唯一不確定的是，激進左翼聯盟是會獲得議會的大多數席位，還是需要組成聯合政府。

Appearing before a throng of supporters outside Athens University late Sunday night, Mr. Tsipras, 40, declared that the era of austerity was over and promised to revive the Greek economy. He also said his government would not allow Greece’s creditors to strangle the country.

週日深夜，40歲的齊普拉斯現身雅典大學(Athens University)校園外，對衆多支持者表示，緊縮時代結束了，並承諾重振希臘經濟。他還表示，他領導的政府不會允許希臘的債主們壓制希臘的發展。

“Greece will now move ahead with hope, and reach out to Europe, and Europe is going to change,” he said. “The verdict is clear: We will bring an end to the vicious circle of austerity.”

“希臘現在將帶着希望前進，向歐洲求助，而歐洲將會出現改變，”他說。“這個決定很明確：我們將終結緊縮舉措的惡性循環。”

Syriza’s victory is a dramatic milestone for Europe at a time when continuing economic weakness has stirred an angry, populist backlash from France to Spain to Italy, as more voters grow fed up with policies that demand sacrifice to address the discipline of financial markets without delivering more jobs and prosperity. Syriza is poised to become the first anti-austerity party to take power in a eurozone country, and would shatter the two-party political establishment that has dominated Greece for four decades.

激進左翼聯盟的勝利對於歐洲來說是一個戲劇性的里程碑，目前，歐洲經濟依舊疲軟，從法國、西班牙到意大利，民衆已被激怒，引發民粹主義反彈，越來越多的選民對緊縮政策感到厭煩，這種政策要求民衆做出犧牲，對金融市場加以懲戒，卻帶不來工作機會和繁榮。激進左翼聯盟即將成爲歐元區國家中第一個反對緊縮政策的執政黨，並且終結了希臘40年來的兩黨政治體制。

“Democracy will return to Greece,” said Mr. Tsipras, speaking earlier to a swarm of reporters and photographers as he cast his ballot in Athens. “The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity.”

“希臘將回歸民主，”齊普拉斯早些時候在雅典投票時對一羣記者和攝影師說。“此次發出的信息是，歐洲共同的未來不是一個緊縮的未來。”

Youthful, with a seemingly unflappable demeanor, Mr. Tsipras has worked diligently to soften his image as an anti-Europe radical, joking that his opponents had accused him of everything except stealing other men’s wives. On the campaign trail, he has promised to clean up Greece’s corrupt political system, reform the country’s public administration and reduce the tax burden on the middle class while cracking down on tax evasion by the country’s oligarchical business class.

充滿朝氣、看起來從容不迫的齊普拉斯努力軟化自己反歐洲激進分子的形象，並開玩笑稱，他的對手對他提出了各種指責，除了與別人的老婆偷情。在參加競選時，他承諾整頓希臘腐敗的政治體系，對公共行政系統進行改革，減輕中產階級稅負，同時打擊該國寡頭商業階層的逃稅行爲。

But his biggest promise — and the one that has stirred deep anxiety in Brussels and Berlin as well as on financial markets — has been his pledge to force Greece’s creditors, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, to renegotiate the terms of the country’s 240 billion euro financial bailout. Squeezed by belt-tightening policies intended to stabilize the government’s finances, Greece has endured a historic collapse since the 2009 economic crisis, as economic output has shrunk by 25 percent and unemployment still hovers at roughly 26 percent.

但他最重要的承諾是，迫使以德國總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)爲首的債主們就2400億歐元(約合2.07萬億元人民幣)的金融援助計劃條款重新進行談判，這個承諾在布魯塞爾、柏林及金融市場引發極大的擔憂。旨在穩定政府財務狀況的緊縮政策致使希臘捉襟見肘，自2009年經濟危機以來，希臘經歷了一場空前的崩潰，經濟產出減少25%，失業率仍舊在26%上下徘徊。

In setting up a showdown in coming weeks with Germany and the country’s other creditors, Mr. Tsipras has argued that easing the bailout terms would allow more government spending, stimulating more economic growth and employment as well as helping the Greeks who need it the most.

爲了在未來幾周與德國及其他債主攤牌，齊普拉斯辯稱，放寬援助計劃條款將增加政府開支，進一步刺激經濟增長和就業，給最需要這種舉措的希臘人帶來幫助。

“Tsipras won because those who imposed austerity never thought about the effects of such drastic policies that impoverished millions of people,” said Paul De Grauwe, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former adviser to the European Commission. “In a world where people are so hit, they just don’t remain passive. Their reaction is to turn to the politicians who will change the process.”

“齊普拉斯贏得選舉是因爲，那些實施緊縮政策的人從未想過這種極端政策帶來的影響，這種政策讓數以百萬計的人陷入貧困，”倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics)教授、前歐盟委員會(European Commission)顧問保羅·德格羅韋(Paul De Grauwe)說。“遭受如此打擊的人民，是不會逆來順受的。他們的反應是求助於將會改變這一過程的政治人士。”

Mr. Tsipras will face immediate challenges. Greece is still waiting for a 7 billion euro bailout payment that Athens needs to keep the government running and to pay off billions in debt obligations due in the coming months. He has also demanded that creditors write down at least half of Greece’s 319 billion euro public debt in order to give the country more breathing room for a spending stimulus that he says would give the economy a much-needed jolt.

齊普拉斯很快就會面臨挑戰。希臘仍在等待70億歐元的援助資金，希臘人需要這筆錢維持政府運轉，償還未來幾個月就要到期的數十億歐元的債務。他還要求債主至少將希臘3190億歐元的公共債務減記一半，以便讓該國有更多的喘息空間刺激消費。他認爲，刺激消費將會給該國經濟帶來急需的提振。

Mr. Tsipras has pledged immediate action, including restoring electricity to poor families who have lost services for unpaid bills. He has promised to raise the minimum wage to 751 euros a month from 586 euros a month for all workers; restore collective bargaining agreements;prohibit mass layoffs; and create 300,000 jobs.

齊普拉斯許諾立即採取行動，包括向因未支付賬單而被斷電的貧困家庭恢復供電。他還承諾將面向所有行業的最低工資從每月586歐元提高至751歐元、恢復勞資雙方集體談判協議、禁止大規模裁員並創造30萬個就業崗位。

Jens Weidmann, president of Bundesbank, the German central bank, warned that Greece would remain dependent on outside financial support and that the new Greek government “should not make promises that the country cannot afford.”

德國央行德國聯邦銀行(Bundesbank)行長延斯·魏德曼(Jens Weidmann)告誡稱，希臘可能依然會依賴外部的財政支持，並且新一屆希臘政府“不應許下國家負擔不起的諾言”。

“I hope the new government won’t call into question what is expected and what has already been achieved,” Mr. Weidmann said in an interview with Germany’s public broadcaster.

“我希望新一屆政府不要質疑目標和當前現狀，”魏德曼在接受德國公共廣播公司的採訪時說。

On the streets of Athens, voters expressed a range of emotions as they went to the polls, from anger to betrayal to fear to hope.

在雅典街頭，選民在前往投票站時表現出了各種各樣的情緒，有憤怒也有覺得被背叛，有恐懼也有希望。

At a polling station in Mets, a middle-class district near central Athens, Achilleas Mandrakis, 47, said he runs a garage but was struggling to stay afloat after his wife lost her job at a shoe store. “I always voted New Democracy, and I never trusted the leftists,” he said. “But enough is enough, really. We kept giving them a chance, but they messed up. They’ve made our lives miserable.

在雅典市中心附近的中產階級聚集區梅茨的一處投票站，47歲的阿希里斯·曼德拉基斯(Achilleas Mandrakis)說自己經營着一家汽車修理廠，但自從妻子失去了在一家鞋店的工作後，他就難以維持下去了。“我一直投新民主黨，從不相信左翼，”他說。“但真的夠了。我們一直給他們機會，但他們卻搞砸了。他們害得我們生活悲慘。”

“At least a different party might change something in this mess, anything.”

“至少另一個政黨可能會給這爛攤子帶來一些變化，什麼都行啊。”

In a brief news conference late Sunday night, Mr. Samaras vowed that his party would continue to play a role in Greek politics and defended his government. “I received the country at the edge of a cliff,” he said. “I was asked to take burning coals into my hands and I did it.”

在週日深夜的新聞發佈會上，薩馬拉斯誓稱他領導的政黨將繼續在希臘政壇發揮作用，併爲他這一屆政府進行了辯護。“我臨危受命，接手這個國家，”他說。“我被要求接過燙手的山芋，我照做了。”

Mr. Samaras said that Greece had moved away from deficits and recession and that his government had “restored the credibility of the country.”

薩馬拉斯表示，希臘已經擺脫了赤字和衰退，並且他領導的政府已經“恢復了國家的信譽”。

For Syriza, the immediate question was whether the party would win the 151 seats needed to have an outright majority in Parliament. Projections showed that the result would be very close, and if he falls short, Mr. Tsipras might align with the fringe party, Independent Greeks, a center-right, anti-austerity movement that might push for a harder line in any debt negotiations. Early returns also showed that the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party was in third place with roughly 6 percent of the total vote.

對激進左翼聯盟來說，迫切的問題是，該黨能否在議會贏得佔絕對多數所需的151個席位。預測顯示，結果可能會非常接近，並且如果達不到這個席位數，齊普拉斯可能會與邊緣政黨獨立希臘人(Independent Greeks)結盟。該黨是一箇中左翼反緊縮團體，可能會要求在一切債務談判中採取更強硬的立場。早期反饋還顯示，新法西斯主義政黨金色黎明黨(Golden Dawn)獲得了大約6%的選票，位居第三。

While Greece sees itself as being punished by creditors’ demands, Germany and a host of European officials have argued that Greece and other troubled eurozone nations must clean up the high debts and deficits at the root of Europe’s debt crisis. They say Athens has still failed to make enough headway on the structural reforms necessary to put the economy on better footing, and they are pressing Greece to raise billions of euros through more budgetary cutbacks and taxes.

希臘認爲自己是在債權人要求下接受懲罰，但德國和很多歐洲官員表示，希臘和其他身處困境的歐元區國家必須清理高額債務和赤字，它們是歐洲債務危機的根源。爲了改善經濟基礎，必須進行結構改革，但他們表示，雅典依然未在這方面取得足夠的進展。他們正在向希臘施壓，要求其通過進一步削減預算和徵稅，以籌集數十億歐元。

Many analysts say Mr. Tsipras must moderate his campaign promises and take a more centrist approach if he wants to save the economy and keep Greece solvent. “That will be the best possible outcome for Greece and for Europe, because it would show that these protest movements ultimately recognize reality – which is that they are in the euro, and they have to play by the rules,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

許多分析人士表示，如果想挽救經濟，保持希臘有償債能力，齊普拉斯必須讓自己的競選承諾變得溫和些，並採取更中間派的方式。“不管是對希臘還是歐洲來說，這可能都是最好的結果，因爲事實會表明，這些抗議團體最終會承認現實，那就是，它們身在歐元區，必須遵守規則，”華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員雅各布·芬克·柯克加德(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard)說。

Otherwise, he warned, “things could get a lot worse.”

否則，他警告稱，“形勢會進一步惡化。”

“Very, very quickly,” he added.

“而且會非常非常快，”他接着說。