韓國大選的特朗普因素

More than 1m South Koreans cast early votes on Thursday ahead of a historic presidential election next week that many hope will return the nation to stability after months of upheaval and unrest.

100餘萬韓國人在下週歷史性的總統選舉之前在本週四提前投票。很多人希望，在持續數月的動盪和不安定之後，大選將使國家恢復穩定。

Polls will open across the country on Tuesday for a snap election triggered by the impeachment of Park Geun-hye in March.

全國各地的投票站將在下週二開放，舉行因今年3月份朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)遭到彈劾而觸發的提前大選。

Leading the pack of candidates is Moon Jae-in, a veteran politician with the country’s Democratic party. Mr Moon has surged in polls following Ms Park’s ouster by tapping into public discontent about corruption and cronyism.

人氣領先的候選人是文在寅(Moon Jae-in)，他是共同民主黨的資深政治家。朴槿惠被彈劾後，藉助公衆對腐敗和裙帶主義的不滿，文在寅人氣飆升。

In recent weeks, however, the focus of the election has shifted, with North Korea and the new US administration increasingly dominating the debate.

然而，這場大選的焦點在最近幾周已經轉移，朝鮮和美國特朗普政府日益主導着辯論。

A series of perceived gaffes and mis-steps by US President Donald Trump and his officials have fuelled concerns about Washington’s reliability as an ally and the future of bilateral relations.

在韓國人眼裏，美國總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)及其官員接二連三地講錯話，做錯事，加劇了韓國對於華盛頓作爲盟友的可靠性以及雙邊關係未來的擔憂。

“Now there is another dimension. Trump has handed South Korea one snub after another,” said Hans Schattle, a professor of political science at Yonsei University in Seoul. “South Korea’s voters want a president who can assert the country’s interests.”

“現在有了另一個維度。特朗普一次又一次地不給韓國面子，”首爾延世大學(Yonsei University)政治學教授漢斯?舍特勒(Hans Schattle)表示。“韓國選民想要一個能夠維護國家利益的總統。”

Washington and Seoul have been treaty allies since the Korean war and many credit the large US military presence in South Korea with deterring North Korean attacks.

自朝鮮戰爭以來，美韓一直是條約盟國，許多人承認，美國在韓國的大規模軍事存在，使朝鮮不敢發動攻擊。

However, ties have frayed since Mr Trump assumed office, with South Koreans angry over the nation’s exclusion from discussions on North Korea as well as comments by the US leader that “Korea actually used to be a part of China”.

不過，自特朗普上任以來，美韓關係出現裂縫，韓方對自己被排除在有關朝鮮的討論之外、對美國領導人有關“朝鮮半島實際上曾經是中國的一部分”的言論感到憤慨。

A demand by Mr Trump that Seoul also pay $1bn for a US-owned and operated missile shield on the peninsula also prompted a sharp backlash.

特朗普開口要求首爾爲美國部署在韓國、由美方擁有和操作的導彈防禦系統出資10億美元，也引發了激烈反彈。

The comments are likely to boost the prospects of Mr Moon, who is notably less gushing about the US alliance than his Conservative party counterparts.

這些言論可能有助於文在寅的選情；相比保守派政黨的對手，他對韓美同盟明顯沒有那麼熱情。

Observers believe Mr Moon will pursue a rebalancing of South Korea’s international relations. Many members of his party came of age protesting against the US in the 1980s, while some of his top advisers are pushing for a “reset” of relations with China.

觀察家們認爲，文在寅將試圖重新平衡韓國的國際關係。他所在政黨的許多成員是在20世紀80年代抗議美國的浪潮中長大的，而他的一些高層顧問正在推動“重啓”對華關係。

Ties between Beijing and Seoul have deteriorated in recent months over the deployment of the US missile shield in South Korea’s Seongju county — an installation that could be revisited if Mr Moon is elected.

中韓關係近幾個月來出現惡化，癥結是美國在韓國星州郡(Seongju)部署反導系統；如果文在寅當選，這一部署可能被重新考慮。

Mr Moon’s critics accuse him of being weak on security and sympathetic to North Korea. Comments that he would push to take back wartime control of the country’s armed forces from the US have also prompted some consternation.

文在寅的批評者指責他在安全問題上立場軟弱，還同情朝鮮。他曾表示，他將推動向美國要回對韓軍部隊的戰時指揮權，這些言論也引起了一些驚愕。

“Moon doesn’t seem to prioritise national security,” said Park Hui-rak, a professor at Kookmin university. “[He] has called for the early retrieval of wartime operational control, which could jeopardise the alliance?.?.?.?As South Korea doesn’t have nuclear weapons, it is very risky thing to think about.”

“文在寅似乎沒有把國家安全放在首位，”韓國國民大學(Kookmin University)教授樸輝洛(Park Hui-rak)表示。“他呼籲及早收回戰時作戰控制，這可能危及聯盟……由於韓國沒有核武器，這麼考慮是非常危險的。”

The liberal candidate’s closest competitors for the presidency are centrist Ahn Cheol-soo and conservative Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea party.

與這名自由派總統候選人最接近的對手是中間立場的安哲秀(Ahn Cheol-soo)，以及保守派的自由韓國黨的洪準杓(Hong Joon-pyo)。

Despite hailing from the scandal-tainted party of Ms Park, Mr Hong has enjoyed an extraordinary surge in support in recent weeks and is now polling at just under 20 per cent, compared with around 40 per cent for Mr Moon.

儘管來自朴槿惠所在的被醜聞留下污點的政黨，但洪準杓在近幾周人氣激增，目前其支持率略低於20%，而文在寅的支持率在40%上下。

Elderly conservative voters are apparently coalescing around Mr Hong, underscoring the generational divide in South Korea, said Prof Schattle.

延世大學的舍特勒表示，立場保守的老年選民顯然傾向於支持洪準杓，突顯韓國的代溝。

Mr Hong has raised the hackles of the nation’s youth by vowing to crack down on gay people and saying “washing dishes is women’s work”.

洪準杓誓言打擊同性戀者，並稱“洗碗是婦女的工作”，這些言論令韓國年輕人不滿。

In his memoirs, he describes helping his roommate obtain an aphrodisiac to spike a woman’s drink — something critics have described as an attempted date rape.

在他的回憶錄中，他描述了幫助他的室友獲得春藥並偷偷放入一位女士的飲料；批評者稱此舉簡直是未遂約會強姦。

“[My roommate] said the drug did not work. She woke up and put up strong resistance, biting and scratching him in the face,” Mr Hong wrote in the 2005 publication. He has since said he was just repeating a story he had heard.

“（我的室友）說藥沒有起作用。她醒了，奮力抵抗，咬破和抓破了他的臉，”洪準杓在2005年出版的回憶錄中寫道。在那之後，他說他只是在講述一個自己聽說過的故事。

Nevertheless, Prof Schattle said: “For young people, Hong sounds more like a sleazebucket, not a president”.

話雖如此，舍特勒教授表示：“在年輕人來看，洪聽起來更像是一個庸俗猥瑣的人，而不是一個總統。”