年汽車業17個大預測 從無力到無畏

Despite car and truck sales that motored past 16 million for the first time since 2007, recalls dominated the news for most of the year. General Motors GM 1.42% held center stage, dealing with cascading revelations about faulty ignition switches and recalling millions of vehicles. While GM opted for something approaching full disclosure of its missteps , publishing an report into company-wide fumbles, Japanese airbag maker Tanaka chose to stonewall. It left any remedies up to its beleaguered customers, notably Honda and Toyota. They are the ones who deal with the fallout of exploding safety devices that fatally fired shrapnel throughout the passenger compartment.

2014年，儘管汽車銷量自2007年以來首次超過1600萬輛，但佔據媒體頭條的還是各類召回事故。在召回舞臺上最活躍的是通用汽車公司，由於不斷曝出點火開關故障，通用今年已經召回了幾百萬輛汽車。這家汽車製造商選擇勇敢曝光自己的失誤，並公開發布了一份自查報告。而日本氣囊生產商高田公司卻對“氣囊門”三緘其口，轉而把補救措施留給其深陷困境的客戶本田和豐田來實施。有問題的氣囊爆炸後，會向駕駛室彈出致命碎片。

On the sales front, General Motors and Ford F -0.13% lost market share to Chrysler, which leveraged its Jeep brand to previously unimagined heights – and then, metaphorically left its heritage behind when it established legal domicile in the Netherlands and changed its name to FCA US LLC.

在銷量方面，通用和福特的部分市場份額被克萊斯勒蠶食，後者已經把Jeep品牌成功提升到此前難以想象的高度。隨後，克萊斯勒將它的光輝歷史拋在身後，將總部搬到荷蘭，並更名爲FCA US LLC。

Among the year’s biggest surprises was the plunge in gasoline pries. Economists differed on the economic impact—money in the pockets of consumers offset by declines in exploration and drilling activity—but everyone agreed that it was bearish for small cars and hybrids. The combination of cheap gas and a steep sticker price made the Cadillac ELR the runaway winner of the most disliked car of the year award. Only 155 of the Volt-based $80,000 cars found buyers in November.

今年最令人驚喜的消息還包括油價下跌。經濟學家對油價下跌的經濟影響也是見仁見智，一方面認爲消費者因此節省了不少油錢，一方面則認爲這種趨勢會影響石油的開採鑽探活動。但大家普遍認爲這會影響小型車和混合動力車的銷量。油價下跌加上車價過高，使得凱迪拉克公司的電動轎跑ELR穩居2014年最不受歡迎的車型“寶座”。11月份，這款售價高達8萬美元的電動跑車只賣出了155輛。

So what does 2015 portend? Here are some educated guesses.

那麼，於汽車業而言，2015年又意味着什麼？以下是一些有根據的猜測。

Auto sales: Car sales reach 17 million but manufacturers scramble to adjust capacity as trucks and SUVs soar in popularity. Pressure to hold down corporate fuel averages drives margins on small cars far below break-even.

汽車銷量：2015年，汽車銷量將達到1700萬輛，但隨着皮卡和SUV的走俏，各大廠商也會紛紛調整產能。低油價的壓力將導致小型車的利潤更加單薄。

Detroit Three: The other two Michigan-based manufacturers still face bumps. General Motors copes with continued fallout from its ignition switch recall while Ford fights through the most aggressive launch period in the company’s history.

底特律三巨頭：另兩家底特律車企仍會遇到一些磕磕絆絆。通用還要繼續應對“點火門”事件的餘波，而福特將進入該公司有史以來最激進的產品發佈期。

Japanese Three: Honda treads water while it waits for bold new designs from its Americanized management team to reach market, particularly the Acura NSX super car, which has been on the auto show circuit now for several years. Focused now on his legacy, CEO Carlos Ghosn drives executives even harder to meet targets in his latest three-year plan while he grooms a successor. As for Toyota, Automotive News declares that it is firing on “all cylinders” before its move from Southern California with fresh products in key segments.

日本三巨頭：在本田的美國化管理團隊將新品投放市場之前，該公司還會原地踏步，尤其是它的謳歌NSX超跑，這款車型已經在各大車展上亮相好幾年了，但至今仍未上市。本田CEO卡洛斯o高森一邊督促高管團隊努力實現他的“三年計劃”目標，一邊培養繼承人。《汽車新聞》報道稱，豐田公司在攜新產品搬離南加州工廠之前，正處於“馬力全開”的狀態。

German Three:Mercedes-Benz begins to sag as new lower-priced Benz’s inevitably erode its once invincible “the best or nothing” status. At BMW, imminent arrival of a new 7-series cements its status as the preferred brand of Scarsdale, Shaker Heights, and Santa Monica. A new A3, starting at $30, 795, should nicely lift Audi’s sales beyond 2014’s 15% climb, and a new Q7 SUV should nicely lift profits.

德系三巨頭：由於奔馳的幾款低價產品不可避免地會損害它“要麼最好，要麼什麼都不是”(the best or nothing)的商譽，該公司也開始陷入低迷。而即將推出的新7系轎車則會進一步鞏固寶馬在美國富人圈中的地位。另外，起價30,795美元的奧迪A3，很可能會使奧迪的銷量較2014年增長15%，新款Q7也將進一步提高奧迪的利潤。

Chinese manufacturers:Coming to the U.S.? Warren Buffett’s BYD says it is arriving in 2015 and Geely in 2016 but we’ve been hearing that someone was coming since at 2006. The refinement of Chinese cars is the issue. With more than 80 local automakers producing 524 different models in China, R&D money is spread too thinly to produce meaningful results.

中國廠商：中國汽車進軍美國？巴菲特持股的比亞迪汽車公司稱，它將於2015年登陸美國市場，吉利汽車也將於2016年進入美國市場。不過自2006年起，我們就一直在聽說中國車企要登陸美國。中國汽車最大的硬傷是做工問題。中國有80多家汽車廠商，生產的車型多達524款，研發資金鋪得太開，太單薄，以至於很難獲得有意義的業績。

Tesla:In an effort to blunt criticism about slow refueling times for battery-powered cars, Tesla TSLA -1.54% starts to roll out of a network of battery-swap stations. CEO Elon Musk must hope he can outdo Shai Agassi’s Better Place, which tried to build a whole company around battery-swaps before going bankrupt in 2013.

特斯拉：爲了緩解外界對特斯拉電動汽車充電時間問題的詬病，特斯拉開始推出一個通過換電池快速充電的充電站網絡。CEO埃隆o馬斯克肯定希望自己的運氣比夏伊o阿加西的Better Place公司好一些，這家公司在2013年破產前做的就是電池更換充電站業務。

Headquarter shifts: With Toyota leaving for Texas and Mercedes headed toward North Carolina or Georgia from New Jersey, look for Subaru to chart its own path when it builds its new headquarters. One option: Moving closer to its customers by relocating in Vermont.

換總部：隨着豐田遷至德州，奔馳從新澤西搬往北卡羅來納州或喬治亞州，斯巴魯也要建它的新總部了。它的一個選擇是搬到離其客戶羣更近的佛蒙特州。

CEOs: Newbies Mary Barra at GM and Mark Fields at Ford start playing close attention to the moves made by FCA’s Sergio Marchionne. Despite running his growing empire on two continents, Marchionne tacked on a U.S market share gain of 1.2 points, unhindered by one of the weakest product lineups in the business and troubles with his much heralded eight-speed transmission.

CEO：作爲汽車業新人，通用CEO瑪麗o芭拉和福特CEO馬克o菲爾茲開始密切觀注菲亞特和克萊斯勒集團CEO的塞爾吉奧o馬基奧尼的一舉一動。雖然他的商業帝國橫跨歐美兩個大陸，但馬基奧尼還是成功地把公司的美國市場份額提高了1.2個點，完全沒有受到公司最弱的一條產品線以及八速變速箱問題的影響。

Awards: Despite early wins for VW’s Golf GTI, the Detroit-centric jurors of the North American Car and Truck award 2015 prizes to Ford’s Mustang as well as Ford’s F-150 pickup truck.

獎項：儘管大衆的高爾夫GTI先拔頭籌，但偏向自家人的2015年北美汽車大獎的評審員們還是對福特的野馬和F-150皮卡不吝溢美之辭。

Truck wars: Awards aside, Ford’s aluminum pickup is hard to build and slow to sell, leaving an opening for Ram’s fast-rising 1500 while Nissan tries to forget the failure of its first full-size truck when it launches the second-generation Titan with the biggest of big rig styling. The industry’s biggest secret is revealed by veteran executive John Krafcik in Automotive News: In the over $50,000 category, pickups and SUVs distributed through non-premium dealers outsell German luxury brands.

皮卡大戰：如果把得獎的問題拋在一邊，福特的全鋁皮卡生產起來很不容易，賣得也比較慢，這就爲快速崛起的道奇公羊（Dodge Ram）1500提供了機會。同時，日產也試圖忘掉該公司第一款全尺寸皮卡，也就是採用雙拖斗造型的第二代Titan皮卡的失利。汽車業老將約翰o克拉福西克向《汽車新聞》透露了這個行業的最大祕密：在5萬美元以上的市場區間，平價品牌的皮卡和SUV的銷量要超過德系豪華品牌。

Brands with the most to make up for in 2015:Volkswagen, whose stale product line depressed sales by 11%, thereby delaying Ferdinand Piech’s plans for global supremacy, and Volvo, down 17%, which has yet to make any progress under its Chinese owner.

2015年最需要迎頭趕上的品牌：由於產品線陳舊，大衆今年的銷量下降了11%，影響了費迪南德o皮切的“稱霸全球”計劃。沃爾沃的銷量則下跌了17%，自從被中國車企收購後，該公司至今還沒有任何進步。

Brands with the most incentive to coast in 2015:Jeep, which must be exhausted after lifting sales an astonishing 44% on the back of the new Cherokee, and Subaru, now the 10th most popular brand in America after improving its sales by 21% in its usual fashion: quietly.

2015年風頭最勁的品牌：在新款切諾基的拉動下，Jeep在2014年的銷量驚人地拉高了44%，而斯巴魯的銷量則靜悄悄地提高了21%，現已成爲美國第十大最受歡迎的汽車品牌。

Alternative fuels: For the first time since diesel-powered cars from Europe started arriving here in the 1950s, old first-person accounts about the joys of driving a diesel fall off to near zero. They are replaced by new first-person accounts about the joys of driving cars with ridiculously high horsepower like the 580-hp Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 and Dodge’s Challenger SRT Hellfire with 707 hp. Elsewhere: fuel-cell cars with their longer cruising range move center-stage, stealing the limelight from battery-powered cars.

替代燃料：自從柴油車於上世紀50年代從歐洲進入美國以來，人們對柴油車的熱情首次冷卻殆盡，取而代之的是馬力高得嚇人的雪佛蘭CamaroZL1（580匹馬力），和707匹馬力的道奇挑戰者SRT地獄火等車型。另外，續航里程更長的燃料電池汽車也開始登上舞臺，從電池動力汽車那裏搶走了不少風頭。

Technology:Cadillac will introduce high-resolution video streaming in the rearview mirror, which improves the field of vision by about four times greater than a traditional mirror by removing obstructions like pillars and passengers. Just the thing for aging Cadillac drivers with stiff necks. Coming next: a “beep, beep, beep” signal like that used by garbage trucks whenever the car is driven in reverse.

科技：凱迪拉克將在汽車的後視鏡添加高清視頻功能，其視野要比傳統的後視鏡開擴四倍，因爲它能夠在最大程度上減少了車柱和乘客對視線的影響，對於上了年紀的凱迪拉克車主和頸椎不好的人來說，這的確是個福音。下一個即將被廣泛採用的技術，則是讓汽車在倒車時，能夠發出像垃圾車那樣的“滴滴聲”。

Autonomous cars: Researchers are working on devices that will automatically park your car in a parking lot without you being in, or near, the car. It will also slip a note under the wipers of the car next to it with your phone number and insurance carrier in case of any scratches.

自動駕駛汽車：研究人員正在研究能讓汽車自動倒車入庫的設備，讓你甚至不必坐在車裏就能完成倒車。這樣你就不必在不小心刮蹭到別人的車時，往人家的雨刮器下面留張字條，並附上你的電話號碼了。

Dealers: Car dealers work toward reducing the paperwork involved in buying a car and the hours it takes to fill it out. That will give them more time to devote to upselling add-ons such as extended warranties, paint and fabric protection, and rust-proofing.

經銷商：經銷商們正在努力精簡購車的文書手續以及時間。這會使他們留出更多的時間向消費者推銷延長質保、噴漆、織物保護、防鏽等附加服務。

Classic cars:Prices plummet as an enormous supply of post-war classics, hidden away on an off-shore island, becomes available for the first time in 50 years. Collectors are especially eager to find Packards, Studebakers, Hudsons, Nashes, Kaisers, and Henry J’s. More’s the surprise because all of the cars are in running condition and are used as daily drivers.

老爺車：由於今年在一個海外小島上發現了一大批塵封50年之久的老爺車，導致現在二戰後的老爺車的供給充足，價格也顯著下降。收藏家們尤其喜歡Packards、Studebakers、Hudsons、Nashes、Kaisers和Henry J’s等型號的老爺車。更令人吃驚的是這批老爺車的車況都十分良好，能夠滿足日常使用。（財富中文網）