電動無人駕駛汽車的未來

Cars attracted frenzied speculation from the start. As Warren Buffett likes to point out, most investors got burnt: of 2,000 US car companies at the start of the 20th century three endured. “Of course, the thing you should have been doing,” the Sage of Omaha has remarked more than once, “was shorting horses.”

汽車從一開始就吸引了瘋狂的投機活動。正如沃倫?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)喜歡指出的那樣，多數投資者損失慘重：在20世紀初2000家美國汽車公司中，只有3家堅持了下來。“當然，你本應該做的一件事是，”這位奧馬哈聖人(Sage of Omaha)不止一次地說，“做空（汽車問世前拖車的）馬。”

Investors are once more captivated by cars, this time electric and autonomous ones. Unlike 100 years ago, however, there are not 2,000 companies on which to bet. Some might look to Google parent Alphabet or Apple, the technology groups for whom cars are just a large research cost; most, though, alight on Tesla, the electric carmaker.

如今，投資者再次爲汽車着迷，這一次是電動汽車和無人駕駛汽車。與100年前不同，現在沒有2000家公司可以押注。一些人可能會看上谷歌(Google)母公司Alphabet或蘋果(Apple)，對於這些科技集團而言，汽車只是一項鉅額研究成本；然而，多數人追捧電動汽車製造商特斯拉(Tesla)。

Yet it is not certain that Tesla has the staying power of a General Motors rather than the shorter life of a Winton Motor Carriage Company or one of the other original also-rans. And while the market seems to have identified traditional carmakers as the “horses”, they are not heading for the knacker’s yard and could adapt to a new market.

然而，現在還不能確定特斯拉是否具備通用汽車(General Motors)那樣的持久力，而不是像某個Winton Motor Carriage Company或者其他最初的平庸企業之一那樣短命。與此同時，儘管市場似乎將傳統汽車製造商視爲“馬”，但它們並未走向老弱馬匹屠宰場，而是完全有可能適應新市場。

At Tesla, chief executive Elon Musk is a magnetic evangelist for his company, convincing shareholders to supply more cash to fund factories and cars. They have poured in more than $7bn since the 2010 initial public offering. Additional shares bring dilution which should reduce the price, but it has marched higher, up 50 per cent this year. Even analysts at Goldman Sachs, Tesla’s preferred underwriter for the share sales, now reckon no one should buy them: its price target of $180 is almost 50 per cent below the current level.

在特斯拉，首席執行官埃隆?馬斯克(Elon Musk)是他公司的一位富有魅力的傳道士，善於說服股東拿出更多資金來爲工廠和汽車融資。自2010年首次公開發行(IPO)以來，他們已投入逾70億美元。更多的股票將產生稀釋作用，應該會降低股價，但該公司股價卻大踏步向前，今年以來上漲50%。就連特斯拉青睞的股票發行承銷商高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析師現在也認爲，誰都不應買入這些股票：其股價目標爲180美元，比當前價格低近一半。

With a $50bn valuation despite no profits, negative free cash flow and frequently missed delivery targets, Tesla is a compelling counterpoint to the complaint that markets are fixated on the short term. It has lost money every year since going public in 2010 and burnt almost $7bn of cash along the way. Despite promising to reach positive free cash flow, Tesla has only achieved it in four of 34 quarters: capital spending usually overwhelms the cash coming in.

儘管沒有利潤，自由現金流爲負值而且一再錯過交付目標，但特斯拉的估值高達500億美元。這一點是對“市場關注短線”這個觀點的有力反駁。自2010年上市以來，該公司年年虧損，其間燒掉了近70億美元資金。儘管承諾將實現正數的自由現金流，但在34個季度中，特斯拉只有4個季度實現了這一目標：資本支出通常超過投入的資金。

Listen to Mr Musk at the annual meeting last month and that is not a surprise. He swept from solar roof tiles to powering a Hawaiian island, to a plan for a car that would drive itself from California to New York without any human intervention, to 20 vast “gigafactories” producing batteries, to a prototype truck that would be unveiled in September.

聽聽馬斯克在上月年會上的發言，這一點不會讓人意外。他滔滔不絕，從太陽能屋頂瓦片說到爲夏威夷一島嶼供電，談到一輛無人駕駛汽車在沒有人力干預的情況下從加州開到紐約的計劃，談到20家生產電池的龐大“千兆工廠”，還談到將在今年9月亮相的一款卡車樣車。

“It’s not inconceivable I would do an electric plane,” he said, adding: “no, I’m not saying we’re going to add a nuclear fusion reactor. I’m just saying it fits.”

“並非不可想象的是，我要開發一種電動飛機，”他表示，他還補充稱：“不，我沒有說我們要加上一個核聚變反應堆。我只是說它合適。”

Yet Tesla delivered only 76,000 cars last year. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast it will not surpass 1m until 2028. Toyota, Volkswagen and GM each produce about 10m cars a year out of global sales of 90m. For the Model 3, its new mass-market car priced at $35,000, Tesla has said it will produce 5,000 a week at some point in 2017 and 10,000 a week at some point in 2018. There were 400,000 initial deposits of $1,000. But the deposits are refundable and the car is not yet on the roads, though it says it will be delivered on schedule.

然而，特斯拉去年僅交付了7.6萬輛汽車。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師預測，其產量在2028年之前不會超過100萬輛。豐田(Toyota)、大衆(Volkswagen)和通用汽車(GM)各自的汽車年產量都達到1000萬輛左右，而全球汽車銷量爲9000萬輛。對於價格爲3.5萬美元、面向大衆的新款汽車Model 3，特斯拉表示，2017年某時將達到每週生產5000輛，2018年某時將達到每週生產1萬輛。現在有40萬人支付了1000美元的定金。但這些定金可以退還，而這款汽車還未上市，儘管特斯拉表示將按計劃交付。

Seeking to rein in demand, even Mr Musk is imploring people not to buy it; orders placed now do not have hope of delivery until the end of 2018.

爲了控制需求，就連馬斯克都勸人們不要購買；現在提交的訂單沒有希望在2018年底之前交付。

38% The share of the market held by electric cars in 1900. Thomas Edison the inventor, above, worked on electric car batteries throughout the first decade of the 20th century.

38% 1900年電動汽車的市場佔有率。

By then there will be more competition. GM has shown with the Chevy Bolt that it can make an electric car with both a range — 238 miles on one charge — and a pricetag similar to the Model 3.

到那時，競爭將更加激烈。通用汽車已用雪佛蘭Bolt(Chevy Bolt)證明，其能夠製造一款在續航里程（充一次電行駛238英里）和價格上與Model 3相近的電動汽車。

If the Bolt falls short on style, then companies including BMW, Daimler, Nissan and VW will deliver more alluring models in the next two years. VW plans 10 new models by then and for electric vehicles to account for 20-25 per cent of sales by 2025. Honda wants two-thirds of its vehicles to be partly electric-powered by 2030, a goal that includes petrol/electric hybrids such as the Accord. Volvo went a step further this week, announcing the end of the purely petrol engine in its cars from 2019. Having previously focused on hydrogen fuel cell technology, Toyota, too, is ramping up its electric ambitions.

如果說雪佛蘭Bolt在式樣上不夠誘人的話，那麼包括寶馬(BMW)、戴姆勒(Daimler)、日產(Nissan)、大衆在內的車企都將在接下來兩年推出更有吸引力的車型。大衆計劃在此期間推出10款新車，並使電動汽車銷量到2025年佔總銷量的20%至25%。本田(Honda)希望到2030年旗下三分之二的汽車實現部分由電力驅動，這一目標包括雅閣(Accord)等油電混合動力車。沃爾沃(Volvo)更進一步，最近宣佈從2019年起停止生產配備純汽油發動機的汽車。此前專注於氫燃料電池技術的豐田，也在加大開發電動汽車的雄心。

Even if the Model 3 succeeds, it is hard to imagine Tesla ever matching the sales of the biggest carmakers. Yet it is valued as if it will. VW, GM and Toyota each sell about 10m cars a year and make a combined $34bn in net income between them. Tesla, with consistent losses and less than 1 per cent of its volume, overtook GM this year to become the most valuable US carmaker. Finding another way to live up to its enterprise value requires a leap of faith that Tesla can attain and exploit an advantage in some other technology — batteries or autonomous cars perhaps.

即便Model 3大獲成功，也很難想象特斯拉能夠達到各大汽車製造商的銷量。但從特斯拉的估值來看，貌似它應該能夠做到。大衆、通用汽車、豐田每家的年銷量都爲1000萬輛左右，淨利潤共計340億美元。今年，持續虧損且產量不到通用汽車1%的特斯拉，已取代通用汽車成爲美國市值最高的汽車製造商。找到另一條途徑來實現它的企業價值，需要一次信心飛躍，或許是特斯拉能夠獲取並利用其他什麼技術——電池或自動駕駛汽車。

This week Tesla has hit trouble; whether it is a bump in the road or something more serious remains to be seen. Weak sales data fed the narrative that potential customers were forgoing existing models and waiting for the cheaper Model 3; the shares are off almost a fifth from their recent high. More than most companies, Tesla needs its inflated stock price since it relies on the stock market for funding.

最近特斯拉遭遇了麻煩；這是一個小波折還是更嚴重的問題仍有待觀察。疲軟的銷售數據引發猜測——潛在的客戶正在放棄現有的車型，等待更便宜的Model 3；特斯拉的股價已從近期的高點跌去近五分之一。特斯拉比大多數公司更需要虛高的股價，因爲它要依賴股市融資。

Plenty of sceptics have lost money betting on the shares to fall. S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm which tracks short sellers, estimates their losses are $4bn this year. It does not mean the short sellers are wrong: the road to success for Tesla still looks incredibly narrow.

很多懷疑者因爲押注特斯拉股價下跌而賠了錢。追蹤賣空者的金融分析公司S3 Partners估計，他們今年的損失將達40億美元。這並不意味着賣空者錯了：特斯拉的成功之路看起來仍極其狹窄。

While Tesla soars, the broader industry is being treated as if it is seriously ill, with a price/earnings multiple that is about the lowest in 20 years. Traditional carmakers have inspired no faith in their ability to adapt to new technology. Doubts are understandable. As recently as 2009, GM and Chrysler were going through bankruptcy. The emissions scandal that cost VW and other car manufacturers billions of dollars struck only two years ago.

在特斯拉股價暴漲之際，整個汽車行業彷彿被當作病入膏肓者對待，市盈率處於20年來最低水平。傳統汽車製造商適應新技術的能力未能激起任何信心。這些疑慮可以理解。就在不那麼久之前的2009年，通用汽車和克萊斯勒經歷過破產。令大衆等汽車製造商付出數十億美元代價的排放作弊醜聞就發生在兩年前。

In May, a month after Tesla overtook its market value, Ford ousted chief executive Mark Fields for failing to push fast enough into the future. GM has made bolder bets, paying $581m for Cruise Automation, a San Francisco-based autonomous driving company; investing $500m in Lyft, the ride-hailing company; and launching Maven, a car-sharing app, with the surprising admission that, when city dwellers buy a car, it depreciates “fairly rapidly, you use it 3 per cent of the time, and you pay a vast amount of money to park it for the other 97 per cent of the time”.

今年5月，在市值上被特斯拉超越一個月後，福特解僱了首席執行官馬克?菲爾茨(Mark Fields)，理由是他未能足夠快地帶領公司向未來推進。通用汽車做出了更大膽的押注，向總部位於舊金山的自動駕駛汽車公司Cruise Automation投資5.81億美元；向叫車服務公司Lyft投資5億美元；推出共享汽車應用Maven，並出人意料地承認，當城市居民購買一輛車時，它貶值“相當快，你只是在3%的時間裏使用它，但要爲其餘97%的時間花大量錢支付停車費”。

However, this is not being rewarded in the market any more than Ford’s more cautious approach. GM trades at a depressed multiple of five times expected earnings. Investors believe in future car technologies, but not that the current carmakers will profit.

然而，相比福特更加謹慎的姿態，通用汽車並未在市場上獲得更高的回報。通用汽車股票的預期市盈率只有區區5倍。投資者相信的是未來的汽車技術，而不是當前的汽車製造商將會盈利。

The same divide is reflected among suppliers. Intel paid $15bn in March for Mobileye, an Israeli company that makes sensors for driverless cars and not much in the way of profit: the price works out at more than 100 times core earnings, not dissimilar to Tesla’s valuation. Nvidia, whose chips are used in self-driving technology, has seen its shares triple in a year.

同樣的分化也出現在供應商之間。今年3月，英特爾(Intel)斥資150億美元收購了爲無人駕駛汽車製造傳感器的以色列公司Mobileye：雖然該公司利潤不高，但收購價是核心盈利的100多倍，與特斯拉的估值有點相像。英偉達(Nvidia)的股價一年間上漲了兩倍，其生產的芯片被用於自動駕駛技術。

Federal-Mogul on the other hand, founded in Detroit in 1899 and a maker of less glamorous parts such as pistons and gaskets, was valued at $1.7bn, just 2.5 times core earnings, when it was acquired this year by Carl Icahn.

另一方面，輝門公司(Federal-Mogul)今年被卡爾?伊卡恩(Carl Icahn)收購時的估值爲17億美元，僅爲核心盈利的2.5倍。1899年成立於底特律的輝門公司是一家生產活塞、密封墊等普通配件的製造商。

Delphi, another large supplier, made the decision to split into two and was immediately rewarded with a 10 per cent increase in the stock price. Shareholders assume the advanced electronics division will be valued more attractively once shorn of the engine division.

另一家大型汽車零部件供應商德爾福(Delphi)在決定分拆爲兩部分後，股價隨即上漲10%。股東們認爲，一旦與發動機部門分開，先進電子部門的估值將更具吸引力。

Yet the gloom surrounding the incumbents seems overdone. Ford’s free cash flow is about $13bn, enough to buy back all of its own depressed shares within three years. Low interest rates have helped prolong a period of bumper sales. US sales, which fell to a rate of 9m in 2009, remain close to 17m a year, although sales are now declining.

然而，圍繞老牌車企的悲觀情緒似乎過頭了。福特的自由現金流約爲130億美元，足以在3年內回購其價格偏低的全部股票。低利率幫助延續了火爆銷售。在2009年跌至900萬輛之後，美國汽車銷量恢復到了每年近1700萬輛的水平，儘管如今銷量在下滑。

President Donald Trump may enjoy torturing carmakers for their overseas plants but he is hardly going to upend their business models with tough environmental rules and incentives. Mr Trump tweeted this week: “Gas prices are the lowest in the US in over 10 years! I would like to see them go even lower.”

美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)或許樂於嚇唬在海外投資設廠的美國汽車製造商，但他不太可能用嚴厲的環保法規和激勵措施來顛覆他們的商業模式。特朗普近日發推文稱：“美國汽油價格處於10多年來的最低水平！我希望看到它們降得更低。”

Indeed, gas prices in the US are about $2.50 a gallon, while they have spent most of the past decade closer to $4. While investors become excited by electric cars, Ford is selling gas-guzzling pick-up trucks in record numbers.

的確，美國汽油價格大約爲每加侖2.50美元，而過去10年的大部分時間都更接近4美元。儘管投資者對電動汽車興奮不已，但福特銷售的耗油量大的皮卡數量達到創紀錄水平。

Change will come, but judging the pace is crucial. Opec, which has a vested interest, predicts that fewer than 7 per cent of vehicles on the road will be fully electric as far away as 2040. The oil producers’ cartel also assumes the number of cars will double from today to 2bn. Tech evangelists scoff at this, claiming more will be electric and more will be shared and autonomous.

變革將出現，但判斷變化的步伐至關重要。擁有既得利益的石油輸出國組織(Opec)預測，即使到了遙遠的2040年，在路上行駛的全電動汽車也將不到7%。這個產油國卡特爾還認爲，汽車數量將比現在增加一倍，達到20億輛。科技信徒對此嗤之以鼻，聲稱電動汽車數量將更多，同時將有更多汽車被共享和自動化。

But even under more radical forecasts — UBS predicts electric vehicles, including hybrids, will account for 14 per cent of sales by 2025 — there will still be plenty of petrol-powered cars. If investors remain so down on the industry, private equity firms should be able to strike bargain deals for cash generative companies.

然而，即便根據更爲激進的預測（瑞銀(UBS)預測，到2025年包括混合動力汽車在內的電動汽車將佔汽車總銷量的14%），還是會有大量以汽油爲動力的汽車。如果投資者對該行業如此不看好，私人股本公司應該能以低價收購產生大量現金的公司。

And if change is more rapid, some carmakers should be better insulated than before. Steve Rattner, the “car tsar” in the Obama administration, highlights how rapidly the new threats have emerged. “I literally never heard the words ‘autonomous vehicle’ or ‘ride-sharing’,” he says of his time supervising the restructuring of GM and Chrysler in 2009, but notes that the carmakers were made to cut costs so they could break even if sales stayed at 10m a year. That should help when the cycle turns and even cushion a more profound blow, such as more people choosing to hail or share rather than own their cars.

如果變革更爲迅速，一些汽車製造商應該會比以前具備更好的抗壓能力。曾在奧巴馬政府擔任“汽車沙皇”的史蒂夫?拉特納(Steve Rattner)指出新的威脅可能迅速出現。他在談到2009年他監督通用汽車和克萊斯勒重組時表示，“那時我真的從未聽到過‘自動駕駛汽車’或‘拼車’。”但他指出，這些汽車製造商被勒令削減成本，這樣如果銷量保持在每年1000萬輛的話，它們就能實現盈虧平衡。這將在週期變化時有所幫助，甚至能夠緩解更沉重的打擊，例如更多的人選擇打車或拼車，而不是買車。

“We may have left these companies reasonably positioned to at least hold their own financially,” says Mr Rattner.

拉特納表示：“我們可能讓這些公司處於良好的狀態，至少可以在財務上自立。”

Detroit’s sunniest optimists even say that, when the world shifts, the carmakers will thrive: fat operating margins will be available for managing autonomous fleets of taxis and buses or providing insurance. Ford forecasts it will make margins of more than 20 per cent from these services.

底特律最樂觀的人士甚至表示，當世界發生變化時，汽車製造商將蓬勃發展：管理自動駕駛出租車和巴士或提供保險業務將獲得豐厚的營運利潤率。福特預測，該公司將從這些服務中獲得超過20%的利潤率。

Few endorse these estimates. Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein, argues: “Precisely none of these activities makes 20 per cent margins for anyone, anywhere.”

幾乎無人支持這些預測。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師馬克斯?沃伯頓(Max Warburton)辯稱：“這些活動根本不可能實現20%的利潤率，對任何地區的任何一家企業都是如此。”

It is understandable that such profits would appeal to carmakers, whose operating margins range from 2 per cent at Ford to 8 per cent at Daimler. Yet their puny margins offer some defence: why would tech titans such as Alphabet, with an operating margin above 26 per cent, start making cars?

可以理解的是，這些利潤將吸引汽車製造商，目前它們的營運利潤率介於2%（福特）到8%（戴姆勒）。然而，這些低得可憐的利潤率提供了一些防禦：營運利潤率超過26%的Alphabet等科技巨擘爲何要開始生產汽車？

Rather than cut out the incumbents, collaboration is more likely. Tech companies might provide the core technology, mainly the software, for self-driving cars while the carmakers stick to their capital-intensive, low-margin business.

更有可能出現的是合作，而不是取代老牌汽車製造商。科技公司可以爲自動駕駛汽車提供核心技術，主要是軟件，而汽車製造商將繼續做資本密集型、低利潤率的業務。

Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary which has racked up more than 3m autonomous miles, has a partnership with Fiat Chrysler, which is supplying 600 minivans. Waymo has also linked up with Lyft, the app that competes with Uber, and Avis Budget. Semi-autonomous trips are expected before the end of the year.

Alphabet子公司Waymo的自動駕駛里程已超過300萬英里，該公司與菲亞特克萊斯勒(Fiat Chrysler)合作，由後者提供600輛麪包車。Waymo已和與優步(Uber)競爭的應用Lyft以及Avis Budget合作。預計在今年底之前將推出半自動駕駛行程。

The unknown is Apple, which is working on cars and does not typically put its software in another company’s hardware. If Tesla can succeed in producing vehicles at scale then surely so could the world’s richest company. But it would require more daring than has been seen at Apple since the death of Steve Jobs.

一個未知因素是蘋果，正致力於研發汽車的該公司一般不會將自己的軟件置於另一家公司的硬件中。如果特斯拉的電動汽車能夠成功實現量產，那麼這家全球最富有的公司肯定也能。但相比史蒂夫?喬布斯(Steve Jobs)去世後人們看到的蘋果，該公司需要展現出更多勇氣。

Traditional carmakers cannot afford to relax but they should be wary of rash moves. Incumbents can sometimes make the technological leap and still come a cropper.

傳統汽車製造商無法放鬆，但他們也應該小心，不要魯莽行事。老牌公司有時實現了技術飛躍，卻仍可能失敗。

Studebaker, a horse-drawn carriage company of the 19th century, became a successful carmaker in the 20th. But it continued paying a large dividend after the 1929 stock market crash, invested heavily in new vehicles and pulled off a big acquisition. This all fatally damaged the balance sheet, the company collapsed in March 1933 and three months later Albert Erskine, Studebaker’s president, took a revolver to the bathroom and shot himself through the heart.

19世紀的馬車公司斯蒂貝克(Studebaker)在20世紀成爲一家成功的汽車製造商。但在1929年股市崩盤後仍繼續支付較高股息，大舉投資新汽車，還完成了一筆大規模併購。這一切給資產負債表帶來致命損傷，該公司於1933年3月破產，3個月後，斯蒂貝克總裁阿爾伯特?厄斯金(Albert Erskine)帶着一把左輪手槍來到浴室，朝着自己的心臟開了槍。

Above the news of Mr Erskine’s death on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune is an unrelated cartoon, which provides a reminder that technological forecasts are seldom on the money. A man proclaims that within 25 years indestructible planes powered wirelessly from the earth will transport passengers at 1,000mph. The caption reads: “Today no one considers the most fantastic prediction to be improbable.”

在《芝加哥論壇報》(Chicago Daily Tribune)首頁上厄斯金自殺的消息上方是一張與此無關的漫畫，它提醒人們科技預測很少是正確的。在漫畫上，一位男子宣稱，在25年內，從地球上無線供電的堅不可摧的飛機將以1000英里的時速載客飛行。標題是：“如今，沒有人認爲最荒誕的預測是不可能的。”

Additional reporting by Jonathan Eley, Christian Pfrang and Sujeet Indap

喬納森?埃利(Jonathan Eley)、克里斯蒂安?普夫朗(Christian Pfrang)和蘇吉特?因達普(Sujeet Indap)補充報道