需求決定市場 中國的商場太多了

If you want to know what many urban Chinese get up to in their spare time, here’s the answer: they go to the mall.

如果你想知道中國城市居民在閒暇之餘做什麼，那麼答案是，他們去逛商場。

According to China Confidential, a research service from the Financial Times, two-thirds of urban consumers regularly visit s hopp ing malls, with 40.9 per cent of mall visitors going to malls at least once a week (see chart below). Based on China Confidential’s demographic analysis, that works out at about 54m visitors to Chinese malls each week, more than the population of England. And most of these visitors are not just window shopping. On average, mall visitors made nine purchases or transactions over the past six months, with total annual spending in excess of Rmb700bn ($113bn).

英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)的數據顯示，三分之二的城市消費者定期去逛商場，這些人中有40.9%至少一週去一次（見下表）。按照《中國投資參考》的人口統計分析，這相當於在中國每週有大約5400萬人去逛商場，超過英格蘭地區總人口。並且這些人大多還不是隻逛不買。平均而言，每位消費者在過去6個月在商場進行了9次購買或交易，消費者在商場的年度支出總額超過7000億元人民幣（合1130億美元）。

This enormous footfall and spending has unsurprisingly sparked a wave of shopping mall construction across the country in recent years.

不難預料，近年來這種巨大的客流和支出在中國各地掀起了建造商場的熱潮。

China accounted for 44 per cent of total global shopping mall completions in 2014, according to real estate consultancy CBRE, with more mall space added in the central city of Wuhan alone (993,000 square metres) than in the whole of the Americas (800,000 sq m).

房地產諮詢公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)的數據顯示，在2014年全球完工商場總數中，中國佔到了44%，僅在中國中部城市武漢，新增商場面積（99.3萬平方米）就超過了整個美國的新增商場面積（80萬平方米）。

While growth in completed mall floorspace in China did moderate slightly on an annual basis last year, the amount of mallspace in the pipeline in China remains enormous. At least 24m sq m of additional mallspace is under construction nationwide, according to CBRE, accounting for over 60 per cent of global mallspace under construction.

儘管去年中國商場完工面積同比的確只是略有增長，但中國正在建設中的商場數量依然巨大。世邦魏理仕的數據顯示，中國各地至少有2400萬平方米的商場正在建設當中，佔到全球在建商場面積的逾60%。

All of which has raised concerns about a potential overbuild of malls in China, especially as headline retail sales growth slows. This is a concern that even some industry participants share. Thirty-five per cent of mall managers reported an oversupply of malls in their area, with those in lower-tier cities markedly less positive than their counterparts in first and second-tier cities.

所有這些令人擔憂中國有可能商場建設過度，尤其是在整體零售銷售增長放緩之際。甚至一些業內人士也存在這種擔憂。有35%的商場經理表示，自己所在區域的商場供應過度，三四線城市的商場經理遠沒有一二線城市的商場經理樂觀。

This points to a broader contrast in performance between shopping malls in China’s largest, wealthiest cities, and those in the smaller, mostly inland cities that are the focus of much of the current wave of shopping mall construction. In first-tier cities surveyed by China Confidential, 76.5 per cent of mall managers reported positive revenue growth. By contrast, the proportion was just 62.5 per cent in second-tier cities and 43.8 per cent in third-tier cities.

這帶出了另一個現象——中國最大、最富裕的城市和在大多位於內陸地區的較小城市，商場的表現有着天壤之別。後者是當前商場建造熱潮的主要地點。在《中國投資參考》調查的一線城市，76.5%的商場經理表示商場營收正增長。相比之下，在二線城市和三線城市的這一比例分別只有62.5%和43.8%。

Indeed, according to China Confidential’s survey, malls in smaller cities are lagging behind their counterparts in larger cities on almost every metric: foot traffic, occupancy rates and rental yields to name a few. And the sheer volume of mallspace expected to hit the market in these cities in coming years points to rising risks for mall developers in these markets, especially should retail sales continue to slow. Some of these mall developments are likely to be lossmaking, while others may prove to be white elephants.

實際上，根據《中國投資參考》的調查，較小城市的商場在幾乎所有指標上都落後於較大城市的商場：比如客流量、入駐率和租金收益。預計未來幾年在這些城市將會有大量的商場供應衝擊市場，這意味着這些市場中的商場開發商面臨日益升高的風險，尤其是如果零售銷售增長繼續放緩的話。其中一些商場開發很可能出現虧損，還有一些商場事實上可能成爲華麗的累贅。

But as with so many other markets in China, signs of oversupply in some markets should not be confused with a nationwide bubble. In China Confidential’s survey, 64 per cent of mall managers said their malls were profitable. Demand for the wide range of retail, dining and leisure facilities offered by shopping malls continues to grow. Furthermore, most of the slowdown in retail spending over the past year has hit older retail formats, such as department stores, which are being squeezed by the growing popularity of malls and ecommerce.

但與中國的其他許多市場一樣，一些市場過度供應的跡象不應該被誤會爲全國都出現了泡沫。在《中國投資參考》的調查中，64%的商場經理表示，他們的商場是盈利的。對商場提供的各種零售、餐飲和娛樂設施的需求繼續增長。此外，過去一年裏零售支出放緩已經衝擊了舊日的零售模式，比如由於綜合購物中心和電子商務日漸流行而受到擠壓的百貨商店。

It may not be quite as simple as ‘if you build it, they will come’. But even the poster child for China’s commercial property bears — the giant New South China Mall in Dongguan, the world’s largest, which for years has been little more than a ghost mall — finally appears to be showing signs of life.

事情可能沒有那麼簡單，不是說“建了商場就會自動有客流”。但即便是中國商業地產低迷的典範——位於東莞的全球最大綜合購物中心、多年來客流稀少的新華南Mall——似乎也終於出現了復甦的跡象。

Oversupply in lower-tier markets in particular is clearly a concern. But Chinese demand for shopping malls as a retail format is strong and growing. In this context, the scale of buildout in China seems rather more rational than the headline numbers may suggest.

三四線城市的過度供應尤其令人擔憂。但中國人對商場這種購物模式的需求強勁，而且還在不斷增長之中。在這種背景下，中國的商場建造熱潮似乎遠比整體數據所顯示的要理性。