緬甸油氣管線讓中國佔得能源先機

A new crude oil pipeline through Myanmar due to begin operations in September will put China in a favorable position compared to other Asian economic powerhouses challenged by energy security issues.

穿過緬甸的一條新原油管線定於9月開始運營，相比其他面臨能源安全問題挑戰的亞洲經濟強國，這條管線將讓中國處於有利地位。

At a capacity of 440,000 barrels a day, the pipeline--running from Myanmar's coast at the Bay of Bengal to China's southern Yunnan region--will allow China to send less crude through the Strait of Malacca. The narrow waterway by Singapore, where the U.S. Navy has a strong presence, is considered a major threat to secure energy supplies by major Asian economies dependent on crude shipments from the Middle East and Africa.

這條從緬甸位於孟加拉灣的海岸線到中國南方雲南地區的管線每天可輸送44萬桶原油，讓中國得以減少通過馬六甲海峽運輸的原油數量。對於依賴從中東和非洲運輸原油的亞洲經濟體來說，毗鄰新加坡的狹窄航道馬六甲海峽被認爲是對安全能源供應的重大威脅。美國海軍在新加坡駐有重兵。

China--helped by its own domestic oil production of just over 4 million barrels a day--last year relied on the narrow waters for around 37% of its total demand. That share will drop to about 30% once the Myanmar pipeline comes on stream.

在每天略高於400萬桶的國內原油生產的幫助下，中國去年依賴馬六甲海峽運輸的原油佔其總需求的37%左右。一旦緬甸的管線投入使用，這個比例將下降到30%左右。

In comparison, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all rely on the Strait of Malacca for around 75% of their total oil consumption, in part due to their small domestic production.

相比之下，日本、韓國和臺灣地區石油消耗總量的75%依靠馬六甲海峽運輸，部分原因是其國內原油產量很小。

The Myanmar pipeline, which will run parallel to a major natural gas pipeline, comes on top of a string of oil and gas import pipelines already completed or planned to supply China's less-developed inland regions.

緬甸原油管線與一條重要天然氣管線平行，在此之前已經有一系列向中國欠發達內陸地區輸送油氣的已完工或規劃中的油氣進口管線。

In 2009, a new pipeline from Russia began pumping Siberian crude into northern China, and in March this year, the two countries agreed to double shipments to 620,000 barrels a day. They also agreed in principle on a new pipeline that will feed northeastern China with 38 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas a year starting in 2018.

2009年，一條從俄羅斯起始的新管線開始將西伯利亞原油輸送到中國北部，今年3月，中俄兩國達成協議，將輸送的原油數量增加一倍，至每天62萬桶。兩國還大體上就新建一條天然氣管線達成協議，該管線將從2018年起每年向中國東北輸送380億立方米俄羅斯天然氣。

Also in 2009, a pipeline began operations that stretches 4,000 kilometers across Central Asia and is capable of shipping 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Turkmenistan to western China. Oil imports from neighboring Kazakhstan began in 2005, and are set to double to 400,000 barrels a day when expansion at an existing pipeline is completed next year.

同樣在2009年，一條綿延4,000公里、橫貫中亞的管線開始運行，這條管線每年能夠從土庫曼斯坦向中國西部輸送300億立方米天然氣。從哈薩克斯坦進口石油從2005年開始，而且進口量將在明年一條現有管線完成擴容後增加一倍，達到每天40萬桶。

While the oil pipeline could reach full capacity soon after launch, the gas pipeline is not expected to be filled until Myanmar ramps up production from its offshore fields. Furthermore, the Wood Mackenzie energy consultancy estimates that CNPC is building the pipelines through Myanmar at a short-term loss, as it will buy gas at market price and sell it at subsidized prices at home.

雖然緬甸的石油管線可能在投入使用後不久達到滿負荷運行，但天然氣管線預計在緬甸加強其海上氣田生產之前將無法發揮全部產能。此外，能源諮詢機構Wood Mackenzie估計，中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)是以短期虧損爲代價修建通過緬甸的管線，因該公司將以市場價購買天然氣，然後在國內以補貼價出售。

'The Chinese are willing and capable of taking a long-term view,' said Wood Mackenzie analyst Craig McMahon.

Wood Mackenzie分析師麥克馬洪(Craig McMahon)說，中國人願意從長遠角度看問題，也有能力這樣做。