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有關氣候的英語課外閱讀

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有關氣候的英語課外閱讀

  英語課外閱讀1

Few would give the Bank of England top marks forbeing ahead of events when the credit crunchbegan. Having been slow to respond to one globaldisaster, it is determined not to be caught flat-footed in another. To this end its PrudentialRegulation Authority has written to 30 large insurersto probe the robustness of their business models inthe face of extreme weather.

信貸危機發生時,英國央行(Bank of England)對事態作出的反應不是十分令人滿意。在一場全球性災難中反應遲鈍的它,決心不能再毫無準備地面對另一場全球性災難。爲此,該行旗下的審慎監管局(Prudential Regulation Authority)致函30家大型保險公司,想探知在遭遇極端天氣時它們商業模式的穩健性。

Insurance companies may well feel like rolling their eyeballs at being prodded in this way. Theywere at the sharp end when events like Typhoon Haiyan or Hurricane Katrina caused a hugeincrease in insurance claims.

面對這種鞭策,保險公司很可能會想報以白眼。在像颱風“海燕”或颶風卡特里娜(Katrina)這樣的事件導致保險索賠大幅增加時,保險公司是有切身體會的。

In 2012, weather-related disasters cost about $150bn, of which over a third was insured. People who only see the sunny side of life seldom rise far in the insurance industry. Withexposures lasting decades, most insurance CEOs will claim to have thought deeply about therisks posed by extreme weather to their business.

2012年,與天氣有關的災害造成約1500億美元損失,其中三分之一以上有保險。只看到生活中陽光一面的人在保險業很少能夠高升。考慮到這方面的敞口已經存在了數十年,大多數保險公司的首席執行官都會聲稱,他們已深思熟慮過極端天氣對其業務構成的風險。

Yet there are good reasons for the Bank of England to turn up the volume. The main one is thetussle between regulator and industry over the levels of capital needed to insure certain risks. Anything related to climate needs to be examined regularly. UK rules demand that insurershave enough capital on hand to withstand the sort of shock that only happens every 200 years. This is a high bar, but appropriate given that global temperatures may within decades hitlevels not seen since the prehistoric era.

不過,英國央行有充分理由提高調門。最主要的理由是,監管機構和保險業之間圍繞某些險種所需的資本金水平有爭執。一切與氣候有關的保險都需定期接受審查。英國的規定要求,保險公司必須持有足夠的資本金,以承受那種200年一遇的衝擊。這是個很高的要求,但考慮到全球氣溫可能會在幾十年內創下自史前時代以來未見的高點,這個要求是恰當的。

Moreover, the methods used to evaluate climate change risk are likely to be highlyidiosyncratic, which provides another good reason for the Bank’s interference. The manner inwhich global warming may be influencing the weather is difficult to ascertain, potentiallycovering events from floods and hurricanes to droughts and loss of biodiversity. Evaluatingfuture risks will require even more guesswork. While markets are meant to incorporate avariety of opinions, high regulatory standards are needed to stop a casual attitude to climatechange becoming a competitive advantage.

此外,用來評估氣候變化風險的方法很可能是非常特殊的,這爲英國央行的干預提供了另一個不錯的理由。難以確定全球變暖正在以何種方式影響天氣,洪水、颶風、乾旱、生物多樣性喪失等可能都是其體現。評估未來的風險將需要做更多的猜測。雖然市場應當包容各種觀點,但爲了防止對氣候變化漠不關心的態度變成一種競爭優勢,制定較高的監管標準是有必要的。

Higher capital requirements come at a cost. Either premiums must rise or some markets arerendered unviable. Already the insurance companies blame tough regulation for limitingtheir ability to invest in more growth-enhancing areas of the economy.

提高資本金要求是有代價的。要麼必須提高保費,要麼某些市場會難以爲繼。保險公司已經在責怪嚴苛的監管抑制了它們投資經濟中更促增長領域的能力。

Any regulatory change that would leave swaths of coastal property uninsurable bringsexcruciating political dilemmas. When once-secure dwellings become at risk of subsidence andflooding, the government faces an awkward choice: between building better defences, abandoning householders to a loss of affordable insurance or subsidising cover that is noteconomic on its own terms. Sometimes abandonment will be the right answer; it makes nosense to put down bricks and mortar that will be regularly submerged in floodwater.

任何會導致大批沿海房產喪失投保資格的監管改革,都會造成極爲痛苦的政治困境。當曾經安全的住所面臨下沉和洪水風險時,政府就面對一個尷尬的選擇:是改善防禦措施,是坐視住戶買不起保險,還是向這類本質上並不划算的保險提供補貼?有時候,放棄纔是正確的答案;向那些經常會被洪水淹沒的房產上投錢毫無意義。

Insurance will play a key part in the response to global warming. First, it must support theactivities needed to adjust to and mitigate the effects of climate change. But it should alsosend clear signals about what will not be insurable, and where state support may be required.

保險業將在應對全球變暖上發揮關鍵作用。首先,它必須支持爲適應和緩解氣候變化影響所需採取的行動。但它同時也應明確說明,什麼將是不能保的,以及哪一塊可能需要國家的支持。

After the heaviest rainfall in a century, this year’s squabbles between industry and governmentabout how to keep Britain’s coastal areas viable are a foretaste of what is to come. It wouldhave been better had this happened in a strategic way, and before rather than after the nextextreme weather event.

在經歷了百年來最強的一次降雨後,今年保險業和政府之間圍繞如何維繫英國沿海地區生存發展產生的爭吵,是對未來事態發展的一次小型預演。假如這場爭吵當時能以一種戰略性的方式展開、而且能在接下來的一起極端天氣事件之前而不是之後展開,那麼本會有更好的效果。

US insurance companies have been accused of being ill prepared for climate change. Thismakes it doubly encouraging that the Bank of England is determined to be on the front foot.

美國的保險公司已被指責對氣候變化準備不足。因此,英國央行在這件事上決心主動出擊就變得更加令人鼓舞。