夾在美中之間的歐盟

自從唐納德·特朗普當選美國總統以來，專家們一直在猜測，這是否會導致中國與歐盟的關係更加密切。最近已經有許多跡象顯示出了這種傾向，雖說歐盟和中國之間以往也存在着分歧。歐盟發現自己正處在中國和美國之間，這也許能讓它加強自身在國際秩序中的作用。

Since Donald Trump was elected US president, pundits have been speculating whether this would lead to a closer relationship between China and the EU. Many signs have recently pointed in that direction, despite the fact that in the past, the EU and China have also had their share of differences. The EU thus finds itself in a middle position between the US and China, which could allow it to strengthen its role in the international order.

總體上，歐中關係在實際工作層面一直比較牢固。但政見使具體的分歧變得突出，特別是貿易關係相當棘手。最近一個例子是對中國市場經濟地位（MES）的爭議，這一爭議已經對其他領域產生溢出效應。

Overall, EU-China relations have long been strong on a pragmatic and working level. Politics have highlighted specific differences, particularly in trade relations, that may prove difficult to resolve. One recent example is the debate over China's Market Economy Status (MES), which has had spill over effects into other areas.

2016年，中國加入WTO議定書的一項條款到期，該條款認定中國爲非市場經濟。北京方面認爲，條款到期意味着中國將自動獲得MES，而這會使歐盟等貿易伙伴對中國產品採取反傾銷措施的能力發生改變。美國和歐盟都未明確給予中國MES，認爲中國沒有達到標準。然而，獲得MES一直是中國主要的外交目標之一，中國也一直不加掩飾地爲獲得MES向合作伙伴施壓。例如，由於歐盟在MES問題上的立場，2017年中歐布魯塞爾峯會之後有關氣候變化和清潔能源的聯合聲明就被扣下了。

In 2016, a provision in China's WTO Accession protocol expired, which identified China as a non-market economy. Beijing argued that this meant China would automatically be granted MES, which would change the abilities of trading partners such as the EU to launch anti-dumping measures against Chinese products. Neither the US nor the EU have explicitly granted China MES, arguing China does not fulfil the criteria. Yet, attaining this status has been one of China's key diplomatic goals and it has not shied away from putting pressure on its partners to get it. For instance, in 2017, a joint statement on climate change and clean energy was withheld after the EU-China Summit in Brussels due to the EU's position on MES.

不過，目前確實存在着關係改善的跡象。

Signs of improved relations do, however, exist.

貿易和投資仍然是中歐關係的支柱，而在看上去雙方擁有更多共識的問題上，如氣候變化、維護伊朗核協議、啓動WTO改革等，中歐合作是穩固的。中國在歐盟的投資越來越多，由於監管障礙較少，政策環境可預測，以及擁有高技術資產，中國目前對歐洲的投資比對北美高九倍。中歐雙邊投資協定談判正在進行中，考慮到當前國際貿易和投資關係面臨的種種坎坷，談判本身就可以說是一個積極的跡象。

Trade and investment remain the backbone of EU-China relations, and cooperation is strong on issues where there seems to be more of a common understanding, such as on climate change, the preservation of the Iran nuclear deal, and initiating WTO reform. China is increasingly investing in the EU, with investment volumes now nine-times higher in Europe than in North America due to fewer regulatory hurdles, a predictable policy environment, and high-tech assets. Negotiations over a Bilateral Investment Agreement between the two are moving along, which can itself be seen as a positive sign when taking into account all the stumbling blocks currently facing international trade and investment relations.

今年7月的中歐峯會受到稱讚，因爲這是兩年來雙方第一次發表聯合聲明，表明雙方都願意積極描述它們之間的關係。但仔細研讀這份聲明會發現，雙方的共識似乎只存在於一些比較模糊的問題上，而人權、鋼鐵產能過剩、南海等更爲敏感的問題並不包括在內。幾個曾經引發激烈爭議的話題，如MES、鋼鐵關稅或貿易保護立法，都沒有被提及。

July's EU-China Summit was applauded for producing the first joint statement in two years, which illustrates that both sides aim to project a positive picture of their relations. But on taking a closer look at the statement, consensus between both parties seems to exist on rather vague issues, while more sensitive issues such as human rights, steel overcapacity, and the South China Sea were not included. No mention has been made of several contentious topics that have produced heated debate such as MES, steel tariffs, or trade defence legislation.

自從特朗普對中國商品加徵關稅以來，北京加大了對歐盟的魅力攻勢。雖然以往中國更願意與個別成員國打交道，但它目前認爲，把歐盟當成單一行爲體來對待更加有利，尤其是在建立反美聯盟的時候。

Since Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing has upped its charm-offensive towards the EU. While in the past China has preferred to deal with individual member states, it now sees advantages in dealing with the EU as a single actor, in particular when it comes to building alliances against the US

與此同時，北京繼續與單個歐盟成員國打交道。過去十年，在經濟關係不斷深化的同時，中方似乎越來越不願意深度捲入人權等敏感問題。而通過默默的外交活動，德國說服中國准許已故諾貝爾獎得主劉曉波的妻子劉霞離開中國前往德國。

At the same time, Beijing continues to deal with individual EU Member States as well. Over the past decade, the deepening of economic ties seems to have been accompanied by an increasing unwillingness on the part of China to engage substantially on sensitive issues like human rights. Yet, through quiet diplomacy, Germany managed to persuade China to allow Liu Xia, wife of late Nobel Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, to leave China for Germany.

雖然這些都表明雙邊關係取得了進展，但懷疑也是有道理的。中國在歐盟的存在和投資日益增加，引發了有關國家安全問題的爭論。德國等國已呼籲歐盟制定統一政策處理中國在敏感領域的投資。國家立法已經收緊，一項全歐盟範圍內的立法提案正在制定中，內容包括加強成員國之間對可能涉及國家安全的投資的信息共享。這些舉措爲歐盟與中國關係增添了爭議內容，有可能引來反制措施，但它也表明歐盟爲保護自身利益甘冒這一風險。

While these are signs of progress in the relationship, scepticism is warranted. China's increasing presence and investments in the EU have sparked debate over national security issues. Countries like Germany have called for a common EU approach towards Chinese investments in sensitive areas. National legislation has been tightened and an EU-wide legislative proposal that includes increased information-sharing among Member States regarding investments with potential national security implications is currently in the making. Such initiatives add contentious elements to the EU-China relationship which could provoke countermeasures, but demonstrate that this is a risk the EU is willing to take to protect its own interests.

歐盟對中國主推的“一帶一路”以及中國與中東歐的“16 + 1”合作平臺等倡議也是心存疑慮。歐盟還批評中國限制歐洲企業進入其市場、實行保護主義、缺乏互惠。歐盟領導人明確表示，儘管他們不打算站在中國一邊反對美國，但他們也覺得不能再把美國現政府當成穩定的合作伙伴來依靠。

The EU has also been sceptical of Chinese initiatives like the flagship Belt and Road Initiative and 16+1, China's platform to engage Central and Eastern European Countries. The EU also criticises the lack of market access for European businesses in the Chinese market, protectionism, and lack of reciprocity. EU leaders have made it clear that although they do not intend to side with China against the US yet, they also feel they can no longer rely on the current US administration as a stable partner.

歐盟委員會主席讓-克洛德·容克日前對美國的訪問被譽爲獲得了成功，它展示出美歐的團結友好，與月初加拿大G7峯會的可怕景象形成鮮明對比。但到目前爲止，訪問唯一的實際成果就是雙方同意未來進行談判。

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's recent visit to the US has been applauded as a success and produced pictures of unity and friendship that stand in contrast to viral images from the G7 Summit earlier this month in Canada. But the only tangible outcome so far is an agreement to future talks.

在當前的辯論中，國際關係時常以過於簡單化的方式呈現。雖然每天的轟動性政治事件往往凸顯國際關係的劇烈變化，但官僚機構的車輪卻保證了基本工作的運行，而這通常在公衆的視線之外。通過這些流程，儘管特朗普加稅、反覆威脅和口頭攻擊，歐美卻依然保持着密切的關係。類似機制同時也在推動中歐關係在工作層面取得進展，雖然雙方存在政治上的分歧。

In the current debate, international relations are often presented in an oversimplified way. While the daily stir of politics tends to highlight the drastic shifts in these relations, the wheels of bureaucracy ensure the continuance of the foundational work - often beyond public sight. Through these processes, EU-US relations will remain close despite Trump's tariffs, repeated threats and verbal attacks. But these same mechanisms simultaneously drive the progress of EU-China relations on a working level, despite political differences.

歐盟正面臨平衡對華、對美關係的挑戰，其內部對外交政策也莫衷一是。如果歐盟不強烈表達自己的利益，中國和美國的決策者就可能更加認爲歐盟無足輕重。歐盟不太可能選擇一方，排斥另一方，因爲它在兩邊都有重大利益，而且這種排斥會破壞歐盟在多邊和以規則爲基礎的國際秩序中發揮更大作用的目標。與日本等其他大國加速達成貿易協議就表明，歐盟在有足夠政治意願情況下是有行動能力的，而這會加強歐盟在國際舞臺上的地位，並給其他合作伙伴發出信號。歐盟如果運籌帷幄，就能找準定位，在國際貿易中保持強勢，這樣就有可能與中國和美國這兩個歐盟最大貿易伙伴達成投資協議。不管怎樣，這種定位將爲歐盟提供跳板，在充滿緊張的世界中實現自己的目標。

The EU is facing the challenge of balancing its relations with China as well as the US while facing internal disputes on foreign policy. If the EU does not project its own interests strongly, Chinese and US decision makers may further doubt the Union's relevance. It is unlikely that the EU would choose one partner over the other as it has critical interests with both, and such exclusion would harm its aim to strengthen its role within a multilateral, rule-based international order. Accelerating trade deals with other large economies, like Japan, demonstrates that the EU is capable of acting when there is enough political will, which can strengthen its position in the international arena and send signals to other partners. If the EU plays its cards right, it could position itself well and maintain its strong credentials in international trade. This could yield investment agreements with China and the US, its two largest trading partners. Either way, such positioning would provide the EU with a springboard to pursue its goals in a world full of tension.