教你打敗巴菲特 自己做股神
可以用E.F. Hutton證券公司那句著名的廣告語來形容沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)：當他開口說話時，人們總是洗耳恭聽。
Warren Buffett is like the old commercial for E.F. Hutton. When he talks, people listen。
當他呼籲調高對富人的稅收時，聽衆可能同意，也可能不同意。但他總能引起人們的關注。
When he calls for higher taxes on the rich, they may agree or not. But he gets their attention。
當他警告說衍生產品是金融業的大規模殺傷性武器時，人們會予以關注，但只是暫時的……然後就會忘得一乾二淨，直到衍生產品在數年後讓經濟崩潰。
When he warns that derivatives are weapons of financial mass destruction, they pay attention, briefly ... then forget all about it, until the derivatives blow up the economy a few years later。
當巴菲特像上月那樣向美國銀行(Bank of America)注資50億美元時，他可以憑藉一己之力引發股票的上揚行情，改變這隻陷入困境的銀行股的人氣，甚至可能改變人們對整個經濟的看法。
And when he steps in to write a $5 billion check to Bank of America, as he did last month, he can single-handedly spark a rally and a change of sentiment toward the beleaguered bank -- and maybe even the economy。
巴菲特先生擁有這種影響力並不奇怪。當華爾街的其他人都在犯錯的時候，他總能保持正確。足以證明這一點是：完全憑藉投資，他積累了大約500億美元財富。
It's no mystery why Mr. Buffett has this kind of clout. He has made a career of being right when the rest of Wall Street was being wrong. And he has amassed an estimated $50 billion fortune, all of it from investing, to prove it。
但是，這可不是在觀看體育比賽。你大可不必坐在看臺上，目瞪口呆地盯着別人的戰績。你也許無法積累500億美元的財富，但有許多方法可以讓你成爲自己的沃倫•巴菲特。
But this isn't like watching a sporting event. You don't just have to sit in the stands and gape at the exploits of others. You may not be able to build a $50 billion fortune, but there are plenty of ways you can be your own Warren Buffett。
1.還清你的信用卡欠款。
這可不是一句玩笑話。巴菲特的財富是多年穩步積累的成果。自20世紀60年代中期以來，他的伯克希爾口哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)每股賬面價值的平均年增長率約爲20%，考慮通貨膨脹因素後約爲16%。今天，大多數信用卡收取的利率都達到或超過這個水平，而且你要用稅後收入來償還利息。但是，有無數人還是繼續每個月保持信用卡欠款。這意味着向你提供貸款的銀行每個月從你這裏賺取了相當於巴菲特水平的回報率。
Pay off your credit cards。
No kidding. Mr. Buffett's wealth is a triumph of steady compounding over many years. Since the mid-1960s, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has grown its book value per share by an average of about 20% a year -- or 16% a year after counting y, most credit cards charge that, or more -- and you're paying the interest with after-tax dollars. But millions of people continue to carry a balance each month. That means your lender is earning Buffett-style returns -- from you!
2.充分利用公司的401(k)
養老金對等繳費計劃。你的僱主每年根據你的繳費金額爲你繳納等額的養老金嗎？即使不考慮減稅額或投資回報，這種等額繳納的養老金也能爲你存入401(k)賬戶的資金帶來100%的回報率。巴菲特先生，來打敗我們吧！你那20%的回報率還差得遠呢。真是令人難以置信，但許多員工就是白白錯失了這麼高的回報。
Take your company's 401(k) match。
Does your employer offer to match the first dollars you pay into your 401(k) each year? Matching dollars offer you a 100% return on the money you put in -- even before counting the tax break or the investment that, Mr. Buffett! His 20% doesn't even come close. Hard to believe, but many workers still pass this up。
3.獲得一筆30年的按揭貸款。
你可以借到一筆利率爲4.1%的30年期固定利率房屋貸款。這可是很划算的交易。今年夏天，伯克希爾•哈撒韋的一家子公司借了8億美元，期限爲30年，利率大約爲5%。
Get a 30-year mortgage。
You can get a fixed-rate, 30-year home loan with an interest rate of 4.1%. That's a deal. This summer a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary borrowed $800 million for 30 years. The rate: around 5%。
4.購買康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)的股票。
石油巨頭康菲公司目前的股價爲每股67美元。巴菲特當年是以每股70美元的價格收購了該公司價值20億美元的股權。他承認自己在2008年石油行業繁盛時期及股市崩盤前買進這些股票是犯了個大錯。然而，他一直持有這些頭寸。現在，康菲公司的股票估值看起來很便宜，僅相當於未來12個月預測收益的8倍，股息收益率近4%。
Buy ConocoPhillips stock。
Oil giant ConocoPhillips is trading at $67 a share. Mr. Buffett paid $70 a share for his $2 billion stake. He has admitted to making a blunder by loading up on this stock during the 2008 oil boom, and just before the stock-market crash. Still, he has held on to most of his position. Conoco today looks cheap at eight times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, with a near-4% dividend yield。
5.購買賽諾菲的股票。
巴菲特擁有這家法國製藥公司大約2%的股權，該公司的產品包括睡眠輔助藥物安必恩(Ambien)。他爲該公司的每份美國存託憑證支付的價格爲40美元。你現在則可以按35美元的價格買入。賽諾菲目前的估值便宜，僅相當於未來12個月預測收益的8倍，股息收益率爲3.6%。
Buy stock in Sanofi。
Mr. Buffett owns about 2% of French drug maker Sanofi, whose products include sleep aid Ambien. He paid the equivalent of $40 per American depositary receipt (the U.S.-traded shares of an overseas company). You can get them for $35. Sanofi trades at a cheap eight times likely earnings over the next 12 months, with a dividend yield of 3.6%。
6.購買富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的股票。
富國銀行是巴菲特最愛的銀行股。多年來他一直在增持這隻股票，他對這家總部位於舊金山的金融機構的信心被證明是有道理的，因爲它在金融危機中的表現遠勝其他許多大型競爭對手。正因爲如此，這家銀行才能夠以近乎白送的價格收購競爭對手Wachovia銀行。
Buy Wells Fargo shares。
巴菲特在今年第二季度增持了富國銀行的股權，當時，該股的平均價格爲28美元。如今，受夏季市場暴跌行情影響，其股價只有24美元。這個價格僅略高於該股的賬面價值，從歷史指標來看，非常便宜。
Wells Fargo is Mr. Buffett's favorite bank. He has been loading up for years, and his confidence in the San Francisco-based financial institution proved justified when it withstood the financial crisis far better than many of its big competitors. Among the results: The bank was able to buy up rival Wachovia for a song。
Mr. Buffett was adding to his Wells Fargo stake in the second quarter, when shares averaged about $28. Today, thanks to the summer market slump, they're at $24. That's just a little over the bank's book value, and cheap by historical measures。
7.購買卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)的股票。
巴菲特減持了這家公司的股票，但仍保留了價值超過30億美元的股權。他爲該股支付的平均價格爲每股33美元，但這是幾年以前的事了。如今，你可以按每股34美元的價格買進卡夫食品。在考慮了通貨膨脹因素後，你支付的價格實際上要低於巴菲特。
卡夫最近宣佈計劃將其北美食品雜貨業務和全球零食業務分拆爲兩家公司，希望藉此來釋放股東價值。(巴菲特支持這一舉動。)此前，該公司於去年斥巨資收購了英國糖果公司吉百利(Cadbury)，這提高了卡夫在快速增長的新興市場的佔有率。
同時，這家公司的股息收益率爲3.4%，看起來和它生產的三角牌巧克力(Toblerone)的味道一樣好。卡夫的產品還包括：趣多多軟曲奇(Chips Ahoy cookies)、Cheez Whiz奶酪和Oscar Mayer午餐肉。
Buy shares of Kraft Foods。
Mr. Buffett has shaved his position in this maker of Chips Ahoy cookies, Cheez Whiz and Oscar Mayer lunch meats, but he still retains a stake of more than $3 billion. He paid an average of $33 a share, but that was several years ago. Today, you can get shares of Kraft Foods for $34. After accounting for inflation, you're paying less than Mr. Buffett did。
Kraft recently announced plans to split its North American grocery and global snacks businesses into two companies, in the hope of unlocking shareholder value. (Mr. Buffett supports the move。) This follows last year's costly takeover of U.K. candy company Cadbury, which has boosted Kraft's presence in fast-growing emerging markets。
Meanwhile, the company's dividend yield, at 3.4%， looks as tasty as Toblerone。
8.購買美國合衆銀行(U.S. Bancorp)的股票。
按資產規模計算，總部位於明尼阿波利斯的美國合衆銀行是美國第六大銀行，這是巴菲特喜歡的又一隻金融股。(他持有的股權價值超過20億美元。) 這家銀行一直保持着從金融危機的陰影下復甦的態勢：最近一個季度的收益增長了三分之一，因爲該銀行放出了更多貸款，而且壞賬沖銷大幅減少。
USB從今年開始大幅提高派息。巴菲特是以每股31美元的價格買入這些股權的。如今你可以按每股22美元的價格買入，僅相當於12個月預測收益的9倍。
Buy U.S. Bancorp stock。
Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, the country's sixth-largest bank by assets, is another financial stock Mr. Buffett likes. (His stake is valued at over $2 billion。) The bank has been recovering from the financial crisis: Latest quarterly earnings jumped by a third, as the bank lent more and its charge-offs tumbled。
USB has started ramping up dividends this year and buying back stock. Mr. Buffett paid $31 a share for his stake. You can get shares for $22, a mere nine times forecast 12-month earnings。
9.在家也能成爲奧馬哈先知。
任何時候只要你能找到一種方法讓你獲得超過20%的回報率，你就是打敗巴菲特了。好吧，我這是在說傻話，果真如此嗎？
舉個例子來說：你可以花50美元買個適配器，然後替換掉你的座機，直接通過手機接入互聯網。即使此舉每年只能爲你節省10美元，也是20%的收益率。(實際上它可能爲你省下多得多的錢。)這樣的省錢方式既無風險又不用納稅。
你會說，這點錢還不夠塞牙縫的。那好吧，按照20%的收益率來算，每年節省10美元，40年後，就能省下74,000美元。如此看來，這還不算太傻。
Be the Oracle of Omaha at home。
Any time you can find a way to earn better than 20%， you're beating Mr. Buffett. OK, I'm being silly. Or am I?
An example: It will cost you $50 for an adapter to dump your landline and connect your phone to the Internet instead. Even if that saves you just $10 a year, that's 20%. (It will probably save you much more。) And money saved is both risk-free and exempt from taxes。
These sums are chickenfeed, you say? Save $10 a year, at 20%， and after 40 years you'd have $74,000. So maybe it's not so silly。
10.購買伯克希爾•哈撒韋的股票。
如果你不能打敗他，就投靠他。伯克希爾•哈撒韋的B股對投資者來說比較容易負擔得起，每股只要69美元，已經從今年春季接近90美元和2007年接近100美元的高點回落。它的估值不到12個月預測收益的15倍，從歷史標準來看偏低，幾乎和股市崩盤時期差不多。
Buy shares in Berkshire Hathaway。
If you can't beat him, join him. The more affordable Berkshire Hathaway 'B' shares cost just $69 -- down from nearly $90 this spring and a peak of nearly $100 back in 2007. They're less than 15 times forecast 12-month earnings -- low by historical standards, and nearly as low as they were during the stock-market crash。
