中國預算裏的隱形赤字
Dream on, Athens. When Beijing presented its 2012 budget this week, the main concern from investors was that the government was not going to run a big enough deficit. 希臘人做夢也不敢想，中國政府本週發佈2012年預算時，投資者的主要擔憂竟是——政府的預算赤字不夠大。
But a closer look at the spending plan reveals that China may have a couple of accounting tricks up its sleeve: its true deficit is likely to be quite a bit larger than the finance ministry claimed. 但更細緻地閱讀這份預算草案，就會發現中國政府偷偷運用了一些會計技巧。中國真正的赤字規模可能比財政部聲稱的數字大很多。
Before delving into the numbers, it is worth emphasising why a bigger deficit in China would actually be a good thing, both in the short term and the long term. 探究具體數字之前，我們有必要強調一下，爲什麼中國擴大財政赤字規模，無論從長期還是短期來看，其實是件好事。
This year, with exporters facing global headwinds and the domestic property market dipping, Chinese growth is bound to slow. The question is whether the government will be able to ensure that this slowdown is moderate and not sharp. 今年，中國出口部門在全球市場面臨巨大壓力，國內房地產市場也轉冷，中國經濟增長勢必放緩。因此問題就成了政府能否確保經濟放緩過程是溫和的，而不會太過劇烈。
The weight of that task is going to fall on fiscal policy, because the central bank is unwilling to loosen monetary policy too much for fear of stoking inflation. Hence the disappointment among investors when the finance ministry announced that it was targeting a deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, just a touch higher than last year. More spending is needed to make up for the gaps left by weak exports and sluggish construction. And with low levels of public debt, China can also easily afford this. 由於央行擔憂刺激通脹，不願過多放鬆貨幣政策，因此這項任務會落在財政政策上。所以，當中國財政部宣佈將預算赤字設爲相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的1.5%之時，投資者頗爲失望，這個水平僅比去年略高。中國需要更大的開支力度，才能填補出口走軟、建設乏力造成的經濟增長缺口。目前較低水平的公共債務水平，意味着中國能夠負擔得起更大的開支。
From a longer-term perspective, a bigger fiscal deficit is also a vital ingredient in the economic rebalancing that is required to keep Chinese growth on track. As Mark Williams with Capital Economics wrote this week: “Many inside and outside of government have agonised for years over what policy changes are needed to boost domestic demand. There is a straightforward answer: government should simply spend more itself.” 從長遠來看，擴大財政赤字也是中國實現經濟再平衡的一個關鍵手段之一，而再平衡則是維持中國經濟增長不脫離正軌的必要措施。凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)本週撰文稱：“政府內部和外部的許多人，多年來一直在爲需要作出哪些政策轉變來推動內需而困擾。有一個直截了當的答案，就是政府自己應該花更多的錢。”
We can be thankful, then, that the government appears to have under-reported its spending plans. Its forecast deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP looks more like a 2.4 percent shortfall on closer inspection, according to Citigroup economists. 那麼，對於政府在公佈預算草案時似乎對赤字打了折扣的做法，我們應該心存謝意纔對。花旗集團(Citigroup)經濟學家分析道，儘管中國政府宣佈的預計赤字相當於GDP的1.5%，但經過更細緻的研究，赤字將實際上相當於GDP的2.4%。
They highlighted two accounting oddities that explain this discrepancy. 這些經濟學家們指出了兩項反常規的會計操作，可以解釋二者的差距。
First, excess revenue of Rmb270bn last year was plunked into a "fiscal stabilisation fund", allowing Beijing to leave it out of the 2011 accounts and count it as revenue this year. If counted as 2011 revenue, which it clearly was, this year's deficit would be higher by 0.5 percent of GDP. 第一，去年2700億元人民幣的額外財政收入，被劃入“預算穩定調節基金”。這使得北京方面得以將其列在2011年財政收入之外，計入今年的收入。如果將這筆資金計入2011年的收入（顯然應該如此），那麼今年財政赤字規模將會增加GDP的0.5%。
Second, Rmb192bn of local spending was booked last year but will not actually happen until this year. Accounted for as 2012 expenditure, which it is, China's deficit would rise by a further 0.35 percent of GDP. 第二，計入去年支出的1920億元人民幣地方政府財政開支，實際上今年纔會發生。如果計入2012年支出（顯然應該如此），那麼財政赤字還會再增加GDP的0.35%。
Citi's conclusion? That premier Wen Jiabao's forecast of 7.5 per cent GDP growth this year could prove conservative — as Chinese official forecasts generally have done in recent years. Citi says: “The proactive fiscal policy should be supportive of above 8 percent growth in 2012.” 花旗集團的結論是，溫家寶總理對中國經濟今年增長7.5%的預期，可能有些保守，近幾年中國的官方預測通常如此。花旗集團表示：“積極的財政政策應當能在2012年支撐超過8%的經濟增長。”
So rest assured, China has plenty of fiscal fire-power in reserve and is preparing to deploy more of it than the finance ministry would have you believe. 所以投資者可以放心了，中國有充足的財政火力，而且準備部署的火力規模比財政部願意讓你相信的更多。譯者:何黎
