“點圖”成美聯儲政策武器

Meet the pointillist Fed. It is five years since the Federal Reserve introduced its “dot plot”, a graphic showing where different members thought the Fed Funds rate would be at different points in the future. But for almost all of that history, markets have systematically refused to believe the dots. The dot plot has pointed to imminent rate rises and traders have placed all their bets on continuing cheap money.

我們遇上了點畫派的美聯儲(Fed)。現在距離美聯儲引入“點圖”已經有5年了。點圖是一張圖表，顯示了美聯儲不同委員所認爲的未來不同時點的聯邦基金利率。但在這5年的幾乎全部時間裏，市場整體拒絕相信這些點圖。點圖指向即將到來的加息，而交易員卻把所有賭注押在廉價貨幣繼續的方向。

Late last year, the election of Donald Trump finally succeeded in jolting growth expectations higher, and futures market expectations at last fell in line with the dots. Both entered 2017 signalling that three rate rises were likely for the year. Now that the market believes the dots, those dots have at last become a valuable weapon for the Fed’s monetary policy.

去年年底，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的當選最終成功地推高了經濟增長預期，期貨市場預期終於與點圖步調一致。2017年伊始，兩者都發出了今年可能加息3次的信號。既然市場相信了這些點圖，它們終於成了對美聯儲貨幣政策而言很有價值的一種武器。

So it was that the Fed succeeded in cushioning Wednesday’s rate rise, almost exactly as it presumably desired, by the masterly inactive strategy of not changing its dots. As the year dawned, a rate rise as soon as this month was thought unlikely. And yet it has happened, and been greeted by cheerful buying of both stocks and bonds. That is largely because the dot plot remained unchanged. With this rate rise clearly signalled, and priced, more or less everything today depended on the future trajectory of rate rises. Now that traders take the dots seriously, the Fed had an easy way to signal that it was not accelerating from its prior intention of hiking three times this year.

結果是，美聯儲通過暫時保持點圖不變的巧妙策略，成功地緩衝了上週三加息的影響，幾乎完全如同其可能希望的那樣。新年到來時，最早於3月加息曾被認爲是不大可能的。但加息確已發生，並受到了歡迎——人們開心地購買股票和債券。這主要是因爲，點圖保持不變。隨着加息信號變得明顯，並在價格中得到反映，今天一切或多或少都要取決於未來利率上升的軌跡。既然交易員認真看待這些點圖，那麼美聯儲就很容易發出信號：它之前想在今年加息3次，目前並未加快步伐。

Beyond the dots, Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, studiously declined invitations to speculate that the Fed might attempt to sell bonds from the vast portfolio it owns as a means to push up rates. And there was even one dovish dissenter in Neel Kashkari.

除了這些點圖，美聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)刻意拒絕做出如下推測：美聯儲也許會試圖從其持有的龐大投資組合中拋售債券，作爲推高利率的手段。美聯儲裏甚至有一位鴿派的、持不同意見的尼爾?卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)。

Adding all of this together, this made today’s news about as lenient for the future course of rates as it could possibly have been. A third rate rise this year is now only a 50/50 shot, according to the futures market. At 2.6 per cent at the beginning of the day, the 10-year bond yield had been on the cusp of breaking out upwards from its decades-long downward trend, but instead dropped to 2.5 per cent. The fear of a disorderly rise in bond yields can quieten again.

這一切使得對於未來的利率路徑而言，上週四的消息再仁慈不過。期貨市場數據顯示，目前看來，今年進行第三次加息的概率只有50-50。上週四開盤時10年期美債收益率爲2.6%，該收益率一直處於結束其數十年來的下降趨勢、向上突破的邊緣，但卻降低至2.5%。對債券收益率無序上升的擔心可以再次平息了。

Other worries have also diminished. The chance of a crisis in emerging markets diminished once their currencies enjoyed their strongest day against the dollar in a year, according to JPMorgan. The sharp weakening in the dollar reduces for now the risk that strong monetary policy counteracts the administration’s attempts to narrow the US trade deficit.

其他擔憂也減輕了。據摩根大通(JPMorgan)表示，在新興市場貨幣上週三出現一年來對美元最大單日漲幅之後，新興市場發生危機的可能性降低了。眼下，美元的急劇貶值降低了如下風險：強有力的貨幣政策會抵消美國政府縮小貿易赤字的努力。

And the sense that rates are not heading too high too far combined with the news from the Netherlands to drive a very strong day for European stocks, accompanied by a fall in European volatility to its lowest since the financial crisis.

利率不會升得太高太遠的認知，加上荷蘭傳來的消息，推動歐洲股市經歷了強勁上漲的一天。同時歐洲股市的波動率降低至金融危機以來的最低水平。

All of this may make this one of the most happily received rate increases on record. Insofar as the Fed’s aim was to raise rates as gently as possible, so as not to scare the children, it has succeeded. It will probably raise rates again in June, giving it six months — until the September meeting — to assess whether the US economy will really get a fiscal boost, and whether real growth has followed through from the startlingly strong confidence surveys in recent weeks.

所有這一切都可能使這次加息成爲有記錄以來市場最欣然接受的加息。如果說美聯儲的目標是儘可能溫和地加息，以免嚇到孩子們，那麼它成功了。美聯儲很可能於6月份再次加息，到9月議息會議之前，就會有六個月時間來評估，美國經濟是否將真的獲得財政刺激，以及近幾周來強勁的信心調查所顯示的真實增長是否延續了下來。

But reasons for concern persist. The dot plots may have settled around the same median, but the committee moved in a more hawkish direction. The number who think there will be only two more rate rises reduced to three, while 14 plan to be more aggressive. So cutting the market’s implied odds of three rate rises to only a 50-50 shot is a mistake.

但是，令人擔心的原因仍然存在。點圖中的中位數或許保持不變，但美聯儲移向了更鷹派的方向。認爲今年只會再有兩次加息的委員減少至3名，而14名委員打算更激進。所以，把市場暗示的加息3次的概率調低至50-50是錯誤的。

And, of course, rates remain highly accommodative. The Fed has plenty of time to reassess and tighten up, but the initial market reaction, at least, increases the risk that it will have to do so. For now, however, the happiness and risk-taking can continue.

當然，目前的利率仍是相當寬鬆的。美聯儲有充足時間重新評估和收緊政策，但最初的市場反應，至少增加了它必須這樣做的風險。但現在，幸福和冒險可以繼續下去。

Are there reasons for concern? A sharp rise for mortgage-backed bonds, and a fall in mortgage rates, might be unwelcome, particularly as confidence in the housing market had nearly returned to its levels of the 2006 bubble. And gold had its best day since the Friday after the Brexit referendum. So there is a case that the Fed has allowed the risks of “melt-up” and inflation to increase too far. Concern will shift back to fearing that it is behind the curve rather than ahead of it.

那麼，有理由擔心嗎？抵押貸款支持債券的大幅上漲，以及抵押貸款利率的下降，也許是不受歡迎的，特別是因爲人們對房地產市場的信心幾乎恢復到了2006年泡沫時的水平。黃金出現了自英國退歐公投之後那個週五以來的最大單日漲幅。所以，有一點值得擔心的是，美聯儲容許“溶漲”和通脹風險上升太多。人們將重新擔憂美聯儲落後於曲線，而不是走在曲線前面。

But for now, the calm that has lasted since the election remains unpunctured. The Fed is walking the line successfully. The dots have it.

但目前，自大選結束以來持續的平靜仍未被破壞。美聯儲在鋼絲繩上走得很成功。點圖發揮了作用。