基金經理爲何理直氣壯地看跌新興市場

Fund managers are gloomier about emerging Markets than for many years after last week’s currency rout from Argentina to Russia.

基金經理目前對新興市場的看法是多年來最悲觀的。上週從阿根廷到俄羅斯等國的貨幣匯率暴跌。

The immediate problems in Argentina on top of the under­lying concerns about the slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the impact of US monetary tapering have left managers worried that the emerging markets sell-off could accelerate.

除了對於中國經濟增長放緩以及美國縮減量化寬鬆的根本擔憂外，阿根廷面臨的迫在眉睫的問題導致基金經理擔心，對新興市場資產的拋售將會加快。

“Be afraid. China is trying to hit unsustainably high GDP growth rates by generating ­bigger and bigger credit and investment bubbles. Its economy is becoming progressively unhinged, and it’s hard to see how it won’t end badly,” said Mike Riddell, a bond fund manager at M&G Investments who is shorting the Brazilian, South African and Turkish currencies.

M&G Investments的債券基金經理邁克•裏德爾(Mike Riddell)表示：“市場有理由感到害怕。中國正試圖通過製造越來越大的信貸和投資泡沫來實現不可持續的高GDP增長率。中國經濟正在變得越來越失控，很難相信中國經濟最終不會出現問題。”裏德爾現已開始做空巴西、南非以及土耳其等國貨幣。

“Emerging market equities have been a big disappointment for some time and going into 2014 we see a degree of pessimism about the asset class that we haven’t seen for many years,” said Richard Titherington, CIO of emerging market equities at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The big risk in 2014 in emerging markets is currencies and how they react to the macro environment.”

摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新興市場股票部門的首席投資官理查德•蒂瑟林頓(Richard Titherington)表示：“新興市場股市的表現令人大失所望已有一段時間。進入2014年以來，我們看到市場對於這類資產的悲觀情緒達到了多年未見的程度。新興市場2014年的主要風險是貨幣匯率走勢，以及它們如何對宏觀環境作出反應。”

Last week’s rout saw the Argentine peso tumble 15 per cent against the dollar, the South African rand and Russian rouble hit five-year lows, and the MSCI Emerging Markets stock index extend its losses so far this year to 5.3 per cent.

上週阿根廷比索兌美元匯率暴跌了15%，而南非蘭特以及俄羅斯盧布均跌至五年低點，而摩根士丹利資本國際新興市場(MSCI Emerging Markets)股票指數今年迄今的下跌幅度擴大到了5.3%。

Michael Howell, managing director of London’s Cross­Border Capital, said: “The outlook remains poor as far as we see it. In contrast to 15 years ago, most emerging market economies are now dependent on the Chinese economy rather than on the currently more dynamic US economy.”

倫敦Cross­Border Capital的執行董事邁克爾•豪厄爾(Michael Howell)表示：“在我們看來，新興市場的前景仍很暗淡。相對於15年前，現在絕大多數新興市場經濟體主要依賴於中國經濟，而非目前更具活力的美國經濟。”

Investors are “apprehensive” about emerging markets’ ability to cope with reduced liquidity, according to Mark Konyn,

香港國泰康利資產管理有限公司(CCAM)的首席執行官康禮賢(Mark Konyn)表示，投資者對於新興市場應對流動性萎縮的能力感到“憂心忡忡”。